| Joe Ross |
11-04-2009 14:47 |
Re: Newton 09
Similar to what I did last year, I ran through 193 simulated qualification match schedules (all 102 matches, using the FIRST match generator). I used each team's average opr for their contribution to a match. I calculated the standings for each of the 193 simulated qualification schedules, and then looked at some statistics from the aggregate results.
When I went back and looked at last year's data, a team finished within 1 standard deviation of their average seed 60% of the time, and within 2 standard deviations 95% of the time. Only 3 teams seeded higher/lower then their min/max seed.
Code:
Team Avg Seed Median Mode StDev Min Max #1 seed Top 8
1625 6.3 4 1 7.5 1 48 40 155
121 7.4 5 1 7.7 1 47 46 131
1726 10.4 7 1 9.8 1 47 20 106
1507 12.6 9 3 12.6 1 69 11 96
2970 14.4 11 4 12.7 1 67 10 85
1701 17.6 14 3 13.6 1 78 7 56
234 18.5 14 5 15.3 1 65 7 60
16 21.8 17 7 16.2 1 76 4 47
1155 21.5 19 5 14.9 1 66 3 42
2377 22.4 19 5 15.8 1 76 2 44
102 21.2 17 7 16.1 1 67 3 49
191 21.9 19 2 14.8 1 64 2 43
364 22.6 19 31 15.5 1 67 2 40
1038 22.9 18 7 16.8 1 79 2 41
469 22.2 19 4 15.8 1 70 2 42
148 24.3 20 13 16.3 1 82 2 24
1732 25.4 22 19 16.1 1 68 1 27
135 24.2 22 30 15.2 1 77 6 31
1918 27.6 25 32 16.1 1 75 2 19
368 29.6 27 18 18.0 1 86 3 18
2344 28.7 27 6 17.3 1 86 3 26
1868 29.0 25 17 17.0 1 82 1 22
233 29.9 28 11 18.8 1 81 4 24
292 32.4 30 9 18.6 2 79 0 14
612 31.6 31 44 17.9 2 78 0 22
1714 33.4 31 22 17.9 3 85 0 11
852 32.5 30 8 19.2 1 87 1 17
360 31.2 27 51 19.2 1 78 2 22
85 30.9 28 25 18.3 3 84 0 15
126 30.4 29 22 16.4 1 77 1 14
122 35.9 34 43 18.9 1 84 1 13
1657 33.5 31 21 19.6 1 80 1 20
1629 33.8 32 32 19.2 2 86 0 17
88 37.8 35 19 20.8 2 86 0 15
846 35.1 34 30 18.7 1 83 1 13
365 36.7 34 14 20.6 2 83 0 12
768 37.9 36 35 17.4 2 79 0 7
33 36.9 36 32 19.2 1 81 2 11
1086 40.2 40 43 20.4 2 80 0 12
159 40.5 38 39 19.3 2 82 0 7
340 42.4 43 65 19.6 2 85 0 8
842 43.8 42 52 20.0 2 84 0 6
1350 43.9 45 46 18.9 2 82 0 4
3075 43.8 43 34 19.8 4 86 0 9
862 42.4 44 49 19.0 2 81 0 6
2890 44.1 46 55 19.9 2 85 0 9
2609 44.3 44 44 20.5 5 87 0 4
2866 46.0 47 34 19.1 6 87 0 4
177 46.6 51 53 20.7 6 84 0 3
2875 49.5 50 70 18.9 6 86 0 3
2283 51.7 53 68 18.0 10 83 0 0
2771 50.5 51 51 19.4 3 87 0 2
832 54.9 57 53 19.4 8 87 0 1
195 54.3 57 58 17.9 2 87 0 1
1138 54.3 57 61 17.9 12 87 0 0
578 53.4 56 56 18.0 6 86 0 1
1557 57.6 59 56 16.9 17 85 0 0
1730 53.9 55 38 20.0 6 86 0 2
228 56.3 58 71 18.7 1 87 1 2
1811 58.4 60 62 17.7 7 87 0 1
339 56.1 59 67 18.6 8 87 0 1
1516 57.2 59 55 17.8 10 87 0 0
1706 57.2 60 69 18.3 14 87 0 0
1098 56.8 58 72 19.1 7 87 0 1
358 59.3 61 70 18.5 7 87 0 1
2659 57.3 60 60 19.7 4 87 0 1
1569 60.1 62 73 16.8 12 85 0 0
980 58.5 60 66 17.7 11 87 0 0
2004 60.6 65 79 19.7 10 87 0 0
1511 60.2 64 58 18.4 8 86 0 1
1209 62.3 65 80 17.4 10 86 0 0
1458 61.9 67 56 17.6 12 87 0 0
2836 63.4 68 73 16.7 6 87 0 2
620 63.8 64 82 15.9 8 87 0 1
1506 67.3 72 75 16.2 25 87 0 0
2067 67.9 72 72 15.4 15 87 0 0
2702 67.5 72 81 15.6 11 87 0 0
2783 67.6 71 85 14.6 25 87 0 0
138 71.3 75 85 13.7 21 87 0 0
1547 69.4 73 83 14.0 16 87 0 0
1700 70.3 74 84 13.6 34 87 0 0
1311 70.4 74 74 13.7 25 87 0 0
1023 72.3 76 86 13.3 29 87 0 0
2996 73.2 76 84 12.0 22 87 0 0
2549 73.1 76 87 12.9 14 87 0 0
529 75.2 78 86 11.4 38 87 0 0
86 82.4 85 87 7.4 42 87 0 0
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