Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

Six weeks of blood, sweat, of tears.
Six weeks of intense competition.
It all boils down to a 60 hour period between Thursday at 7 AM to Saturday at 7PM.
Welcome to the big show, the grand finale. Welcome to Championship.

The divisions are roughly as balanced as they are most years, and will each be more than capable of forming an alliance that could take it all. It's also possible that the powerhouses might be broken up, and the alliance that emerges from one division could be clearly outclassed by the others.

Each division will have it's own prediction thread, but here's a lay-out of how they will work. "Tips", "locks", "dark horses", and "sleepers" will be named for each division. In this context a tip is a team to watch, with a solid chance of going deep. A lock is a team that's guaranteed to do well, with a 50% chance or better of making the divisional finals. A dark horse is a team that has played very well all year but hasn't generated a lot of attention and stands a strong chance to surprise a lot of people. Sleepers are teams that have shown flashes of brilliance but haven't been able to put it all together yet, but has some potential to shine in Atlanta if they can play well.

Each division will also have a slightly unique style of play, and that will definitely impact the winners of each. Expect most alliances to consist of three teams capable of scoring moon rocks, but their roles during matches may vary. Most captains will pick within their comfort zone, and rely on strategies that they have tried and have worked in the past. Archimedes will have lots of close matches, with heavy focus on smart driving and moon rock scoring. Super cells and defense will likely play a more prominent role in Curie than any other division, as even many of the best moon rock scoring machines have placed significant value on the super cells in the past here. Galileo is a feast of famine division, with a very loaded top tier, but the weakest bottom of the field as well. That will result in many top machines having a loss of two due to bad qualification pairings, as well as open the door for a chance at a new high score. Even more than any other division, Galileo will be won during alliance selections. Newton is likely the most balanced division, head-to-toe, and will have a lot in common with events like MSC, Philadelphia, and UTC (just with more top level scoring machines than any of them).

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

I agree with you I personally think the best alliance will be one that has two really good dumper/shooter robots and one that is really good at blocking the other team.

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

Honestly I think this year will take a team where you will need 3 really strong scorers.

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

And when will the division predictions be posted? Wednesday like usual?

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

Although the supercells could make a big difference during elimination, I think the strategy will not make a difference on Einstein. Also by my logic there will be more than 12 locks per division.

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

There would be 12 locks per division if there were only 12 robots that had a chance of being division finalists or better. There are 6 spots, so 600% to spread the percentage around to 87 bots, and by LF's standards only a few are going to be above 50% chance to make it, in contrast to the teams that are likely to be at 1-2% chance of making it.

That aside, I am looking forward to seeing the prediction threads. Hopefully these threads come out before Wednesday as many teams are leaving Tuesday and Wednesday and the audience for the threads would drop dramatically as not everyone will have a laptop or internet access.

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

I would hope that they would be out on Tuesday (or Monday) since most teams will be traveling on all day Wednesday.

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

I expect a successful alliance to have all 3 robots with very good shooters/dumpers.

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

No offense.

But those aren't really predicitions. I mean, they are INCREDIBLY broad... Seeing as every robot that is competitive is a shooter or dumper on some accord.

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

Noooo I won't be able to get on for the division predictions. Someone in Curie will have to let me know what has been said.

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

Over the years, it seems as though a good alliance should be composed of three robots that are quick on offense and can play mean defense.

But behind the robots are the drivers that also need to be good and be willing to play offense and defense well and be very quick to react to unexpected plays on the field.

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

As the season has progressed, shooters and dumpers have both done equally well. Some being better than others. My prediction is all 3 shooters, the third pick should be able to run super cells and be able to play defense while scoring.

-RC

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

I am waiting to see what teams have gotten their crap together sense their last regional and are going to do alot better than expected.

Having 3 able dumpers with one or two really capable defensive robots seems to be working well. Great example that i can think of is 330. They scored well and then pinned amazingly well. to bad they wernt able to make it to champs..

thats my input. dont have much experience on these things though..

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

I think two good scorers and a SuperCell specialist with some scoring ability will get it done. So many people are overlooking SuperCells.

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

I hope to get my predictions out by Sunday afternoon.

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

Ah, so you are part of the "Looking Back" Team?!? :P

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

Let's just say I am Looking Forward



to having the most accurate predictions.

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

My prediction for the winning alliance on Einstien still stands ;)

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

67 111 and 704. winning alliance. done.

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

:D :D :D

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

Defense is absolutely going to matter.

When the opposing alliance can beat your alliance in sheer volume of dumps (say you're facing down Winnovation), there's a net gain in sacrificing a whole robot to keep them held down in a corner, even if that robot would otherwise be making dumps. A weaker alliance's best shot is to use their third pick to harass and annoy the biggest scorer, preferably setting up pins on them for the offensive robots on the field.

The scores will probably be in the 60-90 range for the whole event. Robots that advance are good enough to not easily be scored on, and the only reliable way to get points will be through cunning driving setting up favorable situations. For example, following a robot as it drives toward a wall is a very favorable action for the robot doing the following. Scoring is going to be a game of "who screws up first", and defensive pin robots are invaluable in making this happen.

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

There is also merit to strategically dealing with strategic defense. I'm just glad the videos from Wisconsin aren't up :D

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

I say team 67 and team 217 are my predictions to do good.

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

A bit profound.:p

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

Will the full predicitons be up tonight? We hope to see them before travelling.

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

1114, 2056, 1503


Hah! Seriously, in this game, anything can happen.

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

Does anyone have a full list (team numbers) of all the Regional Winners attending championships? Im guessing Looking Forward does by the data...

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

Hey, how did Karthik get LF's data?



hmmm....

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

You got that backwards, everyone knows even LF uses the Simbots scouting database posted in the whitepaper section of CD:
http://www.chiefdelphi.com/media/papers/2236

I suggest downloading to get all information on the thi season's performance of the teams you'll be playing this week.

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

I don't know if I believe that Galileo will be won in the alliance selections... I'll have to evaluate that upon seeing the alliances. (:

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

You know better than that. :D
It's the best alliance that wins the regional/division/Championship not the best team, and this has become far more apparent in the 3 team on the field era from 2005 on. Prior to that 1 superstar team could carry partners and win everything. In 2005 that changed and not having good deep pick list would bite high seeds more and more in ATL. In a 90 team division it's easier for a lower seed to unseat a high seed because of the depth of the field, by picking wisely.

My $0.02.

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

That's what I'm saying... it's not evident that any particular team is destined to seed first and seize the field, which is why I'm waiting until Saturday afternoon after alliance selections before I make any predictions.
My third pick on Archi last year was all about well-rounded alliances ;)

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

Also, the key to using this database effectively is to use the built in Excel filters. To get the data on all regional winners attending the championship, I simply had to go to the "World Sortable" tab, filter out "Not attending championship" in the division column, and filter in "Regional Winner" & "State Champion" in the result column. Using these filters you can generate all sorts of interesting data.

Re: Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy
 

This alliance appears to have a lot of potential. I see 704 with a lot potential in itself. Since apparently they haven't gone to the championships before, they may be overlooked by some championship regular teams.

Items of interest, in Lonestar regionals, they had 2 or the top 3 scores in qualifying and in the 2nd round of the regional finals, one alliance robot had electrical problems and wasn't moving. They still only lost by 2 points.