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-   -   Sacrificing a State Championship for the Cause??? (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=84916)

JackG 03-04-2010 15:16

Re: Sacrificing a State Championship for the Cause???
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Joe Johnson (Post 947376)
Here is my question for you. As has been discussed elsewhere on these fori and in many many FIRST circles around the country since the Cass Tech District competition, 469 is the real deal. They have come as close to a lock on the Championship as any team has ever come.

So... ...suppose you are at a pre-Championship competition with them. Suppose you have been battling with them for #1 seed. Suppose you edge them out. Do you pick them and be virtually assured of another trophy (all be it, not FIRST's Grand Championship in Atlanta) OR do you pick another offensive powerhouse and a team to be named later in an attempt to find out PRIOR to the Championships if ANYONE can beat them?

Tough choice, high stakes.

Would you give up a near certain Michigan State Championship (the win of a lifetime for many teams) in order to probe the limits of a team that you may face in Atlanta?

Think about it. Let's hear what you have to say...


Would anybody have considered (had they seeded first) not picking 1114 for Overdrive? Would anybody have considered picking somebody over 67 in Lunacy? I don't think so. Both of those teams were dominating in their respective years, and everybody was focusing on how to beat them. Eventually, both of those teams ran into a wicked alliance and then we got to see just how tough they were. The same thing is going to happen with 469 this year. They will be put to the test, and we'll see what they're made of.

If your goal is simply to see if 469 is mortal, then the MSC is not the best place to do so. The level of opposition you can bring against them at MSC is simply not as great as what they'll face in Atlanta. If you could pass over them and bring the toughest opposition they'll face all year, it might be worth not picking them. But since that's not going to happen, it's certainly not worth the sacrifice. If you think that 469 is the best team available, it would be foolish not to pick them.

kgzak 03-04-2010 19:41

Re: Sacrificing a State Championship for the Cause???
 
469 is beatable and here is how I think someone can beat them: as you saw in MSC 217 blocked a lot of the 469's "shots." If 217 had a ball magnet and shooter on the side of the robot 469 would never be able to loop balls. they would just catch them and shoot them to their goals. The reason 469 wins is because they still have another robot in front picking up and scoring the balls that are blocked.

Joe Johnson 03-04-2010 20:06

Re: Sacrificing a State Championship for the Cause???
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by JackG (Post 947466)
Would anybody have considered (had they seeded first) not picking 1114 for Overdrive? Would anybody have considered picking somebody over 67 in Lunacy? I don't think so. Both of those teams were dominating in their respective years, and everybody was focusing on how to beat them. Eventually, both of those teams ran into a wicked alliance and then we got to see just how tough they were. The same thing is going to happen with 469 this year. They will be put to the test, and we'll see what they're made of.

If your goal is simply to see if 469 is mortal, then the MSC is not the best place to do so. The level of opposition you can bring against them at MSC is simply not as great as what they'll face in Atlanta. If you could pass over them and bring the toughest opposition they'll face all year, it might be worth not picking them. But since that's not going to happen, it's certainly not worth the sacrifice. If you think that 469 is the best team available, it would be foolish not to pick them.

Let me say this about that...

First, both 217 and 67 have 2 World Championships from Atlanta behind them. While most teams in Michigan would consider a chance to win the Michigan State Championship as the chance of a lifetime, I think that these two particular teams are more focused on what it will take to get their 3rd World Champion under their belt rather than winning another MSC. There is a 1 in 4 chance of being in the same division in Atlanta. If you are going to explore the weaknesses of 469 how many shots do you get? Not too many. Do you wait to test your plan for Einstein? I think you take your chances where and when they come. If I were a team ranked above 469 at the MSC, I think you might decide to try your Einstein strategy in Ypsilanti.

Second, I don't accept that the competition will be tougher on any stage in Atlanta save Einstein. I believe that the competition in Ypsilanti was head and shoulders above the divisions in Atlanta. I am not saying that there will be no great teams added to the mix in Atlanta but I AM saying that from top to bottom, the competition in Atlanta will not be as strong as what I just saw at MSC. It was a real showcase.

The why is a complex mix of the quality of the teachers, sponsors, mentors, the new district/state championship format, etc...

Joe J.

Norman J 03-04-2010 20:58

Re: Sacrificing a State Championship for the Cause???
 
Didn't 1918 get to test strategies against 469 just by watching how 67 and 217 played them?

Adam Freeman 03-04-2010 20:58

Re: Sacrificing a State Championship for the Cause???
 
Well, we were almost in the exact position proposed in this thread (* except we made a critical tactical error in match #108, resulting in a DQ and losing #1 seed).

Myself and our entire scouting team were trying to decide who to select between 217 and 469. About half of us were for 469, arguably the most dominate robot this season. The other half for 217, a x2 Champion and our best chance at defeating 469.

In the end, 469 was at the top of our list. The reason? They would have given us the best chance to win the event. Even as a x2 World Champion, we very much wanted to win the State Championship for a second straight year. We were not willing to sacrafice it to test an anti-469 strategy.

Unfortunately, we did not get that chance and we did get the opportunity to attempt to defeat them.

I will say this about 469, they are incredibly tough to beat. They took our hardest shots and came out on top. Our matches were extremely close and could have gone either way with a little swing of luck.

If you want to defeat 469, find video of the Finals from MSC. 217 showed a perfect strategy on how to defend them. But, even then the other robots will need to execute 100% to win.

nikeairmancurry 03-04-2010 21:09

Re: Sacrificing a State Championship for the Cause???
 
After reading some of these posts I think some answers can be answered...

469 and 67- I asked Dan of 469.. And he said if hot were to be the leader at the end of quailfing, they would have accepted.

67 and 217- I know the drive teams for both these teams very well, and as far as I know, both these teams hate to lose a match in general. Both teams want to win each match and each event they attend. That's what keeps them going, wanting to win all the time along with inspiring those to better themselfs to beat them. They love the competition, and Adam Freedmon, probably loved the idea of getting to play 469 now.

As for this topic in general, if I'm number 1 seed at MSC, I pick 469.. And played my heart out agaisnt everyone. This tournment proved that alot of things are possible. Atlanta will be nutz!!!

JackG 03-04-2010 21:13

Re: Sacrificing a State Championship for the Cause???
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Joe Johnson (Post 947541)
Let me say this about that...

First, both 217 and 67 have 2 World Championships from Atlanta behind them. While most teams in Michigan would consider a chance to win the Michigan State Championship as the chance of a lifetime, I think that these two particular teams are more focused on what it will take to get their 3rd World Champion under their belt rather than winning another MSC. There is a 1 in 4 chance of being in the same division in Atlanta. If you are going to explore the weaknesses of 469 how many shots do you get? Not too many. Do you wait to test your plan for Einstein? I think you take your chances where and when they come. If I were a team ranked above 469 at the MSC, I think you might decide to try your Einstein strategy in Ypsilanti.

Second, I don't accept that the competition will be tougher on any stage in Atlanta save Einstein. I believe that the competition in Ypsilanti was head and shoulders above the divisions in Atlanta. I am not saying that there will be no great teams added to the mix in Atlanta but I AM saying that from top to bottom, the competition in Atlanta will not be as strong as what I just saw at MSC. It was a real showcase.

The why is a complex mix of the quality of the teachers, sponsors, mentors, the new district/state championship format, etc...

Joe J.

If you had the Thunderchickens or HOT in mind when you made this thread, I completely understand where you're coming from. Of course, if you're at the level of either of them, you know that eventually you'll probably have to get past Las Guerrillas to win big.

I was under the impression that you meant this idea could be applied to any team that ended up seeding at the top. My memory is fuzzy on this, but I believe that in round ten or eleven, HOT was at something like fourth and the Thunderchickens weren't even seeded in the top ten. It wasn't clear that either of those two teams would be in this situation. This screwy ranking system certainly added some entropy to the rankings. (And please don't flame me, 1918 was in no way undeserving, etc.)

Unless you're either 67 or 217, however, I still think my original point is valid. If you are one of those two, however, then I'm definitely with you on the concept of intentionally playing against 469 to prepare yourselves.

Perhaps I'm not as familiar with the Championships as you are, but my thinking when I made that point was that in Atlanta, both alliances' second picks will be better, allowing you to devote a better robot to shutting down 469's loop. I'll defer to your experience and accept that MSC will be tougher competition than the divisions. In light of that, again I'd agree that it's a good reason to at least consider not picking 469.

So basically, working under the same set of assumptions you started with, I'd completely agree with everything you said. :)




On a different note, it turned out that not having 469 was hardly "sacrificing" the State Championship. Of course it took some amazing play from some amazing teams, but I guess it means that not having the magical 469 fairy was not the kiss of death.

WJF2011 03-04-2010 21:46

Re: Sacrificing a State Championship for the Cause???
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Joe Johnson (Post 947376)
I have been watching the Michigan State Championships with some interest.


*I have predicted privately and now I predict online for the first time, that I believe that 4 of the 6 teams playing the last match on Einstein will be Michigan teams. The bottom half of the Michigan teams are the same as the bottom half around the country but the higher you go in the percentiles, the more distance the Michigan teams put between them and the rest of the country. I am far from unbiased on this matter but I think it is true.

You speak the truth my friend, between 469, 217, and 1918 in the finals of michigan will dominate in atlanta. It seems as though 469 has beaten the game, good job guys, im impressed.

Mike Schreiber 03-04-2010 23:51

Re: Sacrificing a State Championship for the Cause???
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Joe Johnson (Post 947541)
Let me say this about that...

.....

Second, I don't accept that the competition will be tougher on any stage in Atlanta save Einstein. I believe that the competition in Ypsilanti was head and shoulders above the divisions in Atlanta. I am not saying that there will be no great teams added to the mix in Atlanta but I AM saying that from top to bottom, the competition in Atlanta will not be as strong as what I just saw at MSC. It was a real showcase.

The why is a complex mix of the quality of the teachers, sponsors, mentors, the new district/state championship format, etc...

Joe J.

While I agree with your statement MSC is a deeper competition and therefore third picks while be better, I fully agree with your reason.

MSC had every team qualify in some way shape or form. They either were good enough to get picked and play in elimination matches and earned their points or won awards. Yes there were a couple teams that probably didn't deserve it as much as some teams that didn't go because they were carried by their alliance partners, even then they were good enough to be picked by a top seed, but (as a guess) most of those robots made it to at least the semifinals in one district. They earned their way.

Atlanta is not the same way. There is open registration for teams that have the money. MSC is actually more exclusive. While this is not the sole reason, I believe if 469 were going to be beat it would have happened at MSC.

sashboy226 04-04-2010 09:05

Re: Sacrificing a State Championship for the Cause???
 
I have not seen the finals matches yet (hopefully TBA will have them soon), but I usually prefer the quarterfinals with 469 as a good gauge of strategy. You see three teams going into the match knowing they are most likely doomed, and usually attempt two different game styles, one more effective than the other, before they pack it up and say goodnight. These strategies are generally different than what each team is comfortable with, and should be observed by others.

When we were picked 8th seed at MSC, I was crushed. I knew we weren't going past quarters, but we went into the match guns blazing. 2337 got in the way of 469 during auton and they ended up partially on the bump, and fell down. We had that match in our grasp until the crowd stopped yelling "BLUE ALLIANCE" because 469 had been righted and was on the tower. We lost 14-11. The second match was nowhere near as close. 2337 blocked the tower in the beginning of teleop and was just pushed out of the way by 469s incredibly strong drive (kudos for that by the way). We then attempted to block the cycle, but even though we are an incredibly agile bot, we only weigh in at about 88 pounds and can't win a shoving match against a cart, so we were stuck on the wrong side of 469 when the balls came down the ramp. We ultimately lost 16-7, still a respectable score against this winning alliance.

Lesson: Watch and learn from EVERY elimination match against 469.

Rabbot 04-04-2010 19:39

Re: Sacrificing a State Championship for the Cause???
 
469 is beatable with the right combination of alliance members along with a sound strategy. 217 successfully defended 469, however it was a near 1 on 1 situation. Unfortunately, 217 being the prolific scorer they were, was sacrificed to defend 469. 67 and 217 would have had a field day in zones 1 and 2 had they relied on a strong defensive bot to neutralize 469.

Team 66 had effectively neutralized 469 in their match (match 77) in zone 2, keeping them from doing much of anything.

I think to win this years game, you will need two prolific scorers and one strong defensive bot, regardless of who is on the other team.

Norman J 04-04-2010 19:55

Re: Sacrificing a State Championship for the Cause???
 
Rabbot: I would have to politely disagree about putting a strong defensive bot in the home zone. That robot needs to be able to clear the balls out of the home zone up to the midfield, otherwise the robot on the other team playing offense will just score the ones you block while you're still defending 469. That robot needs to be agile enough to block the balls as 217 did while also kicking as many as possible out of the zone, and hopefully permanently out of the loop.

hektormagee 04-04-2010 20:44

Re: Sacrificing a State Championship for the Cause???
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ALTrammell818 (Post 947406)
Then after all is said and done they will pick a powerhouse defense. Juggernauts anyone? Or the team at Troy whose number I can't remember that simply had to nudge a robot to flip them right over (not supporting flipping just saying, that 6 wheel drive bot had some major push).

It was 2137. The reason why they were so amazingly powerful was they slightly offset their wheels by a quarter of an inch so that the middle one was slightly lower, allowing for easier turning. They also had about 100 pounds AND the battery in the first half of the robot. That made for easy bump traversing and absolutely insane pushing power. P.S. I loved their little indicator flag for when the kicker was pulled back. very smart, simple, and entertaining idea :)

hektormagee 04-04-2010 20:52

Re: Sacrificing a State Championship for the Cause???
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by JackG (Post 947466)

If your goal is simply to see if 469 is mortal, then the MSC is not the best place to do so. The level of opposition you can bring against them at MSC is simply not as great as what they'll face in Atlanta. If you could pass over them and bring the toughest opposition they'll face all year, it might be worth not picking them. But since that's not going to happen, it's certainly not worth the sacrifice. If you think that 469 is the best team available, it would be foolish not to pick them.

I disagree. You have to remember that in Atlanta, the michigan team will be peppered into 4 different divisions without the chance of cross picking. While there is more total talent in atlanta, there is going to be nowhere near the condensed talent you will find at Michigan State Championships. I mean, where else would a bot like Foley Freeze be picked by the #4 alliance?? Or the Monsters and Bionic Barons being picked as a 3rd round pick by the #1and 2 alliances?? Absolutely nowhere. I believe that Dave was right and that that Michigan State Championship was the hardest competition in the history of FIRST.

JABot67 04-04-2010 21:02

Re: Sacrificing a State Championship for the Cause???
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by hektormagee (Post 948004)
I disagree. You have to remember that in Atlanta, the michigan team will be peppered into 4 different divisions without the chance of cross picking. While there is more total talent in atlanta, there is going to be nowhere near the condensed talent you will find at Michigan State Championships. I mean, where else would a bot like Foley Freeze be picked by the #4 alliance?? Or the Monsters and Bionic Barons being picked as a 3rd round pick by the #1and 2 alliances?? Absolutely nowhere. I believe that Dave was right and that that Michigan State Championship was the hardest competition in the history of FIRST.

Then again, look at Galileo last year. 971, the undefeated champions of Silicon Valley and an extremely effective scorer, were the LAST pick of alliance selection. Team 20 WASN'T PICKED. I agree that Michigan has a ton of powerhouse teams. I would venture to say it has more powerhouses than any other state; this is why Michigan usually sends a lot of teams to Einstein. (4 2009, 5 in 2005, etc.) But the top 24 teams at MSC are not as good as the top 24 in a moderately strong division in Atlanta, especially considering that the latter has 20 more teams.


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