Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

More than 4000 matches ago and three months ago, Breakaway was unveiled. Now, everything will be settled over the course of three days, one last time in the Georgia Dome. Three teams are as few as twenty matches away from being crowed the 2010 FIRST Robotics Champions.

The ante has been upped; it’s time to throw in all the chips. Welcome to where legends are born.
Welcome to the Championship.


And now for a breakdown stolen shamelessly from 1114’s spreadsheet.



The divisions are by no means perfectly balanced, but it’s within a reasonable level. Archimedes is clearly the deepest field, one of the deepest fields of all time (rivaling 2005 Archimedes, 2006 Newton, and 2008 Galileo). But don’t let that mislead you into thinking that Archimedes is a guaranteed favorite on Einstein or that any of the other divisions won’t be capable of winning it all. Each division is fully capable of piecing together an elite alliance with the ability to take it all. And inversely, each division could have the powerhouses split up or upset in such a fashion that the alliance that reaching Einstein is outclassed by their opponents and meets a swift demise.
Each division will have it's own prediction thread, but here's a layout of how they will work. "Tips", "locks", "dark horses", and "sleepers" will be named for each division. In this context a tip is a team to watch, with a solid chance of going deep. A lock is a team that's guaranteed to do well, with a 50% chance or better of making the divisional finals. A dark horse is a team that has played very well all year but hasn't generated a lot of attention and stands a strong chance to surprise a lot of people. Sleepers are teams that have shown flashes of brilliance but haven’t been able to put it all together yet, but have some potential to shine in Atlanta if they can play well.

Each division will play out differently; with different alliance selection and game play strategies. This will obviously impact the alliances sent to Einstein and the style of play on the field. Archimedes’ incredible depth and skill will mean minute differences between bots may often be the deciding factor, and advantages such as hanging and autonomous scoring will play very large roles. With the amount of good mid-field robots, look for the offensive zone teams who can outclass, outlast, and outmaneuver their defenders (who will often be trying to clear balls) to be huge difference makers. Curie is a little thinner up top, but is still rich in midfield and far-zone specialists, including a crop of ball-deflectors (and not only 469). They’ll be a little more separation of the top from the rest in Curie, and expect some more heavily defensive tactics against the cream of the crop teams. This division could well be decided by the alliance selections, even more than other divisions. Galileo has a fair bit of depth at the top, but a large number of deadweight teams towards the bottom, which will make for some varied qualification matches. Hanging will be a bit more of a premium on this field. With the exception of a handful of teams, matches will likely be a bit slower tempo on Galileo, with emphasis on teams who can transition from the neutral to the offensive zone (or who can score consistently from the middle). In terms of depth and talent breakdown, Newton is comparable to Curie in many ways. The elimination game play will likely have a little more focus on both ends of the field, rather than thee or four robot tussles in the middle, than other divisions.

The Looking Forward team has put together a Top 25 poll, similar to the ones done in NCAA sports. Seventeen ballots were collected from some of the most respected minds in FRC, and were tabulated to produce an aggregate top 25. Ballots were sent to individuals all around North America to attempt to avoid any regional biases. Just like in NCAA sports polls, a first place vote grants a team 25 points, a 2nd place grants 24 points… and a 25th place vote grants 1 point.

The format is as follows:
So if team 9999 ranked 3rd with 300 points, 3 1st place votes, had a high rank of 1 and a low rank of 16, theirs would read "#3 - 9999, 300 (3) 1-16."

Without further delay, the results:
#1 - 1114, 404 (4) 1-5
The Simbots are excellent in every aspect of Breakaway, and dominated all three events they attended. Their alliances haven't lost a match and they have three regional victories already in hand, and their sights are firmly aimed at adding another trip to Einstein.
#2 - 469, 402 (11) 1-9
Las Guerillas have redefined many of the ways Breakaway is being played, particularly in Michigan. They are in a class of their own in the ball deflector/looper scheme, and took home gold at all three events they attended despite a massive target on their backs.
#3 - 67, 380 (1) 1-10
HOT is effective and efficient, and won two districts and reached the finals at MSC because of it. They can play all three zones well and their hanging is both quick and can work after the buzzer sounds. Combine that with three trips to Einstein since 2005 (including a 2009 World Championship), and you know this team has the experience and skill to be a real threat.
#4 - 25, 352, 3-11
Raider Robotix is bringing up memories of their 2006 robot by winning New Jersey and Vegas as the #1 seed at both events. Their highly powerful vacuum based ball collector helps them get at balls that few other robots can acquire quickly, which gives them a distinct advantage over many other teams.
#5 - 217, 344 (1) 1-9
The Thunderchickens complimented the three events they won last year with three more this year, and nearly tacked on a fourth at MSC. Effective, experienced, and versatile; 217 will be tough to handle.
#6 - 254, 334, 3-23
The Poofs became the first team to reach 20 regional wins, capturing gold in San Jose and Las Vegas. Lightning fast in all aspects of the game, 254 is as dangerous as anyone. Their aim to reach Einstein for the first time since 2005.
#7 - 148, 323 , 3-9
The Robowranglers captured golds in both Texas events to back up their build season hype. The twin of the Thunderchickens, a lower level of competition and some troubles in the Lone Star finals likely led to a lower ranking, but their aspirations are equally high.
#8 - 33, 249, 6-unranked
The Killer bees ended up with two district silvers and a semi-final exit in MSC, but that's what happens when you face against the caliber opponents they ran into during the eliminations. 33 is a very capable player from the mid and far zones and has a reliable and effective hanging mechanism.
#9 - 330, 233, 6-unranked
The Beachbots are simple, but driven incredible effectively and notched up two more regional victories to their storied legacy.
#10 - 2056, 216, 3-unranked
They have yet to lose a regional they attended, but never survived the semi-finals at championship. They dominated the offensive zone in front of 1114 at both Canadian events, and look to carry their success into Atlanta.
#11 - 971, 210, 6-unranked
They won it all last year, and after a highly successful event a regional win at SVR, they're looking to pick up right where they left off in Atlanta.
#12 - 16, 198, 5-unranked
The Bomb Squad continued their resurgence this year with two more trips to regional finals, winning in Midwest, and are looking to take another trip to Einstein.
#13 - 71, 142, 10-unranked
Team Hammond's bot is oozing with potential, and despite winning in North Star, hasn't reached it yet. They're quick and efficient in both the front zone and hanging, and they're flexible enough to play other areas as well.
#14 - 1918, 135, 2-unranked
They played well enough to capture the #1 seed at MSC over the likes of 67, 217, and 469. Couple that with the eventual gold there, a gold in TC, and a silver in West Michigan and 1918 is poised to try and go even further in Atlanta than they did last year.
T-#15 - 359, 122, 7-unranked
The Hawaiin kids have their best robot ever, and won three events because of it. Highly skilled in the offensive zone, the hanger they debuted in Hawaii will only help their stock in Atlanta.
T-#15 - 1717, 122, 5-unranked
D'Penguineers notched a gold and a silver to their belts, both times as the first selection at their events. They're quick end-game and versatility make them very dangerous.
#17 - 188, 104, 7-unranked
Blizzard was unable to win in the finals at either FLR or GTR, but have a very effective long range scoring machine.
#18 - 1718, 94, 4-unranked
The Fighting Pi weren't able to perform as well in the eliminations as they did in qualification, and only advanced past the semis once in three events. The potential for greatness is there, though.
#19 - 1625, 93, 13-unranked
Winnovation is another team that hasn't maximized their potential yet, but aim to do so in Atlanta. Atlanta hasn't been kind to them in the past, though.
#20 - 910, 92, 11-unranked
Foley Freeze have a very effective home zone scoring machine and captured a gold and silver at their districts, and reached the semis at MSC.
#21 - 111, 85, 12-unranked
Wildstang didn't manage to even reach the finals at either of their events this year, but are a very effective ranged kicker with great maneuverability. The potential for success is definitely there.
#22 - 1732, 80, 11-unranked
1732 grabbed two golds this year at Midwest and Wisconsin. They've got a flexible and consistent machine capable of playing in all three zones.
#23 - 27, 78, 8-unranked
RUSH has an effective ranged kicker and hanging mechanism, but weren't able to get better than silver in 2010.
#24 - 987, 76, 11-unranked
The High Rollers may be the best team not attending Championship, as they captained the #2 alliances to the finals in both Arizona and Las Vegas.
T - #25 - 341, 74, 11-unranked
Daisy has the best robot in their history, winning as the #1 seed in both NYC and Philadelphia. They have an effective autonomous that can score from the far zone and they're capable of playing from any of the three zones.
T - #25 - 968, 74, 8-unranked
RAWC weren't able to win this year, and they didn't look as effective or confident as their twin, 254. But they're always successful in Atlanta, and the potential is there.
Others receiving votes:
1676-52, 1986-34, 45-31, 78-25, 294-24, 201-21, 383-18, 230-18, 233-17, 179-16, 118-15, 20-15, 973-15, 1714-14, 1519-14, 51-14, 234-13, 1501-13, 1902-12, 177-12, 103-12, 2834-11, 525-9, 40-9, 365-8,368-8, 2016-8, 1727-7, 2619-7, 175-6, 2337-6, 1208-4, 88-4, 1124-4, 1305-4, 573-3, 1511-2, 1086-1, 343-1, 3280-1, 79-1

469 obviously received a commanding lead in #1 votes, but the handful of voters who questioned their strategy or effectiveness were enough for 1114 (who always ranked in the top 5) to overcome the Gorillas for the #1 ranking. Only seven teams received a vote on all seventeen ballots, showing both the parity of teams this year, and the chaos created by a lack of easily available video. Michigan has the most teams of any state in the poll, with seven. Curie, Galileo, and Newton each have five of the top 25, the same amount as Archimedes has in the top ten alone. Archimedes has nine teams total in the top 25.

Watch for the division predictions tomorrow.

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

Looking Forward is BACK!!!!!

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

This is AWESOME. I was really, truly excited to read the top-25. I'm now heading to fire up some Mastodon so I don't feel like such a geek.

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

Funny!....However after reading every word of the post (even how many votes 51 got!) I think you need to go deeper....Stevie Ray Vaughan, Leon Russell. :)

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

Glad to have you back. :)

I love the ranking and analysis. I think the list overrates some teams and underrates others, but that's the nature of the beast with prediction; no one agrees on it. Can't wait for detailed division analysis.

Thanks!

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

But Chris, Mastodon is pretty geeky in terms of metal. ;)

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

Very interesting list. Clearly the ones receiving votes but weren't ranked didn't receive as much attention in the national spotlight however they were well known in their own respective regions and can still do some damage. Don't be surprised if one of the teams in small print on the bottom makes Einstein.


-Jack

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

All I can say is that I'm itching for what they have to say in the division predictions tomorrow!

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

Glad you're back.

Thank you for your predictions.

Your work does not go unappreciated.

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

Yep....I can think of one.

Missing the top 25 by 1. WOW that hurts.

Good luck everyone. Keep it fun.

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

Thanks LF. Was so disappointed when you guys said you wouldn't be around this year, but this is a amazing as it was before, if not more. Honored to be #8 of so many experienced FIRST-ers. Hope to live up to the expectations!

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

Interesting fact, 2004 was the only year 968 went to Atlanta and didn't see Einstein.

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

The Bees would probably have won almost any other event in the country had they not been up against the likes of 67, 469, & 217 all the time. Definitely the best team in the country without a win. Good job seeing that and putting them where they are on this list.

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

Hey, I wish 9999 was ranked 3rd. That's our practice robot. :D When team 3129 registered over last summer, we weren't given our number immediately. We were given 9999 as a temporary number. We received our real number just in time for CalGames (with less than a week to spare). Our practice robot's still set up as 9999.

Thanks so much for the hard work you do to make this analysis and predictions happen, LF! This made my day. :D Now I can't wait for the divisional predictions!

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

Will 2010 be the year that Curie finally produces a Champion?

"Looking forward" to finding out!

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

What a wonderful analysis. I was overjoyed to see my team, REX 1727, in fine print on the bottom of the page. We hope to be one of the ones that moves up into the upper echelon one day!

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

Tied for the #64 rank. One person loved us with a 25th rank vote, woot.:p
With 96 teams making the eliminations in the 4 divisions, I like our odds, now we just need to execute.:D
Or you could say 343 is 14th rank of the teams in Newton.:rolleyes:
All in all fun to look at and a great post. Thanks for taking the time to put it together.

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

It could be worse. Your robot could be invisible. :P

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

When will the divisional analysis be released?

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

Dear Looking Forward,

It is a long bus ride from Michigan to Atlanta. I need to get up reeeaaaalllllyyyy early to catch the bus. I will not be able to go to bed until I read your column. Please have mercy on me and many others in my situation and release your predictions NOW!

Thank you.

Most Humbly,
Wayne TenBrink

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

I think it is supposed to be tonight. People were asked to submit input by Sunday I believe?

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

Yup, predictions are due any time now. Though if I remember correctly, last year predictions came out raaaaather late Tuesday night.

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

meh... i thought they came out about nine... but, if thats really late for you, ill try not to judge ;)

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

Yeah, every single one of our elimination losses were against either 67, 217 or 469, usually some combination of them. That's what we get for competing in Michigan, I guess:rolleyes: .

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

I was curious, so I checked. The earliest prediction thread, Archimedes, came out at 12:01 AM on Wednesday, April 15, and the rest came out within the next three minutes.

That is REALLY late. If they come out at midnight tonight, I will not be able to view them, as the bus leaves at 11:59 sharp.

EDIT: NEVER MIND, THEY'RE OUT!!!

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

touche. it must have been the palmetto one last year that came out about nine. and i just saw the archimedes one, so it shouldn't be too long :D

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

Good possibility, with #1 and #2 in that division.

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

I'm not so sure. It seems that Curie has terrible, terrible luck. In 2006 the perennial Canadian powerhouse (1114) joined forces with the perennial Michigan powerhouse of More Martians (70) and the defense forces of the Delphi Elite (48). This alliance had Einstein written aaaaaalllllllll over it. They powered their way through the bracket, winning the first finals match with ease.

Then 1114's shooter broke. I watched from the stands, as we had just finished packing up our pit. I don't remember if it broke in F1-1 or F1-2, but a timeout couldn't fix it. They lost F1-2 by a hair, and lost by a decent margin in F1-3.

[EDIT]See Karthik's post below. My memory is failing me in old age. I suppose I should probably look these things up.[/EDIT]

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

I think that's 1714's fault. They could have built it out of a visible material ;-)

I've participated in a college football poll for the past few years. It's really hard to make up a list of 25 teams out of 120. It must be even harder out of 340 or 2000. It seems easy until you actually do it.

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

It was 70's shooter that broke. We lost F1-2 by 3 points and F1-3 by 8 points.

http://www2.usfirst.org/2006comp/eve...E/matches.html

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

LF -

Would it be possible to see a breakdown of the ballots with where each voter is from? Voters could still remain anonymous. Something like:

Voter A - Indiana
1-1114
2-469
...

It'd be really cool to see how things break down regionally.

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

In college football, raw ballots are rarely if ever shown. There are a lot of reasons why, but I don't need to get into that.

What they usually do is divide the country into regions and say, "The midwest ratings are ..." so that there is still some aggregation. That would be interesting.

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

You know, if you get a bunch of people to estimate the jellybeans in a jar, and average their estimates, the average will be close to the actual.
Its a weird phenomena, and may not apply to this situation, but I'm guessing 6-8 teams on Einstein will be from this list.

Re: Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome
 

Reported.