YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

Third time's the charm! Include a breakdown, point-by-point, ball-by-ball, or just a number of the average alliance score. Mostly, this thread is so we can look back in seven weeks and realize how terribly wrong we were.

For your perusing pleasure, here's last years thread: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2010's Week 1 Regionals
And two years ago's thread: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2009's Week 1 Regionals

According to The Blue Alliance's match results from 2010, excluding eliminations, the average alliance score was 2.46 with a standard deviation of 2.46.

And I'll post my prediction in the thread once I figure out what it is. :)

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

I will guess maybe around 100


Would laugh if I actually get close.

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

I would say for week 1 average, somewhere around 75 pts.

If you want to see what scores are possible, check out the score calculator here:

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...threadid=88417

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

33.2/alliance

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

25 points per alliance.

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

I get 41 per alliance.

I'd like to think that each alliance would have 1 robot capable of scoring a ubertube in autonomous.

Looking at 2007, I'd say two tubes per robot per match would be a reasonable estimate, seeing as most of the defense won't occur when teams are scoring. I figured on average they'd score on the middle row, and get 1 logo bonus (again, on the middle row). Figure one successful working minibot per match, which is 30 points half the time, so 15.

At BAE in 2007, with the rack swinging and defense, 2 tubes in a match made a top 20% robot. Seeing as the "feet" on the pegs are smaller, and there won't be defense when robots are in the act of scoring, I think teams will do a little better.

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

iCurtis, what about the fact that it will be a lot tougher to see the scoring pegs this time as opposed to 2007? And the additional shapes aren't going to make anything easier.

Just food for thought.

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

Also, teams will most likely have to go to the far side of the field to get the game pieces. There were a lot of teams that would good at picking up pieces right in front of the driver station, but struggled picking them up on the far side of the field. Plus, you have to factor the driving time to get there and back.

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

From the field in 2007, we had no problem getting over the spider leg, the real problem was getting our claw lined up so the tube would drop over the foot. Mostly it's the defense, we posted two matches in a row of four tubes on Friday afternoon, and we got doubled teamed for the rest of the tournament and had a hard time even getting to the rack. I would agree the shapes might make it hard, but seeing through the rack with tubes wasn't that much harder than seeing through the rack period (those tubes might've been more translucent?). I like to give robots the benefit of the doubt.

P.S. You can call me Ian. :)

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

the pegs are right in front of your alliance station so it should be easy to see the back of the peg at the least.

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

I'm thinking teams can score around 35-50 points with the tubes, and getting second and third in the race is another 35,....

I say 70 points will be typical for a good scoring alliance and 60 will be the average.

During elimination matches I expect the average to jump 10 points.

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

Early in the day I expect 50-70 averages, and well over 100 in the finals.

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

I'd say 10 for the low matches and 80s being the high for the fun matches. So average around 45-60 as the weekend picks up.

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

64 average for a winning alliance in week 1

Highest score of week one will be 92

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

I'm gonna guess on the low end...only about 15-20 per alliance. Week 1 is usually low-scoring, because teams don't know the best way to play the game yet

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

That is almost impossible, assuming atleast two teams have minibots, then the minimum scores are 30 and 20 respectively.

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

You mean we show you how to play the game! :p I understand what you are saying. It is fun being in week one because you don't have to wait, but annoying since you haven't seen it played before.

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

I'm gonna give two guess. Either 42, or if that's wrong, definitely over 9000. Just sayin.

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

I don't think that by week 1, very many teams will have a consistent minibot.

Hey! We're in the same boat, too! NJ's been week 1 for years. :p I remember last year in NJ I saw a whole bunch of 0-0 and 1-0 scores, so I think week 1 will be very low scoring.

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

Well... it looks like the maximum you can score in any match is 108 points with the tubes, and 50 minibot bonus points.

For week one, I'm guessing that not everyone will have their minibots working properly, so maybe only one per alliance - 30 points to one alliance and 20 to the other on average. I'm guessing people will still be working out the bugs in their autonomous modes, so probably only about one ubertube per alliance, and it will take a while to drive around the field collecting tubes... so maybe about 30 points worth of tubes per match.

This puts my guess at 50-60 points per alliance during week 1 matches.

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

Excluding getting the other team's ubertubes, the calculated max score is 158 points.

Personally, I think a top tier robot, by championship, will be able to score 60 points a match (ubertube + 3 on top pegs + minibot.) I know you're going to say defense, but if an alliance partner protects the awesome bot, while another bot takes care of the middle, you'll see scores average in the 50s-60s per par alliance, and max around 80.

Week one, the average scores will be in the 20s-30s per alliance, with the high being around 50 per alliance.

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

I think because it's week 1, the max will be 100ish and the average would be in the 30s per alliance.

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

I don't see much difficulty placing the pieces on the rack in the desired locations (they aren't moving this time), and just a logo on the top rack adds up to 36 pts by itself. Three robots should be able to transport at least 2 pieces each in the time allotted. That's 72 pts. That doesn't count any Ubertubes or minibots. Of course, that assumes all the robots are capable, which they never are. Therefore, my predictions are as follows:

Michigan: 70-90 points per alliance
Everywhere Else: 50-80 points per alliance

If you're wondering why I'm saying Michigan will do better, just take a look at the 2010 stats. Plus, I'm from Michigan.

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

22.8 points per alliance is my guess

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

Remember if only one alliance has a minibot working in week one, thats 30 points, even if it sucks, and takes 9.9 seconds to climb, thats an instant game winner.

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

31.2 points from Logos, 25.7 points from Minibots, 56.9 total

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

I'm going with the winning alliance scoring 54 points average, losing alliance scoring about 30ish.

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

Not too muddy the waters about this year's game, but I've got some more interesting numbers about last year's game.

During week 1 qualifying rounds:
The average winning or tying alliance scored 3.805 points.
The average losing or tying alliance scored 1.1397 points.
The average winning alliance scored 4.1179 points.

(and in case you were curious, 7.6% of qualifying matches ended with a tie)

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

Qualifications
Low Score: 7
High Score: 135
Average Score: 50

Playoffs
Low Score: 25
High Score: 115
Average Score: 65

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

The fact that the minibot can single-handedly increase a team's score by 30 points leads me to believe that the standard deviation will be huge. My guess is the average will be between 10 - 20 points, with some high scores by better teams.

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

First Week
Average score.... winner 24 loser 4 (might be lower for winner) a non-ubered logo will win most matches..

High score first week .... 72 somewhere....

average winning scores in quals at championships 50's

Highest score for entire competition... 124

I think getting large numbers of scoring pieces on the posts consistently will end up being much harder than most teams imagine.

If you take a robot to St. Louis that can consistently put up ONE ubered logo every match by itself on the top tier and has a good consistent, quick, minibot... you will be in great shape...

Good luck to everyone!!

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

I think the 2007 stats are a little more relevant here than last year.

Week 1
Qualification Average: 20.4
Qual Max Score: 260
Qual Min Score: 0

2011 Week 1 Regionals (2007 numbers from BAE, FLR, etc)
Qualification Average: 21.9
Qual Max Score: 260
Qual Min Score: 0

Now in 2007 the max score was much higher. I don't remember the total possible max score, but I think the highest posted score was ~338 points.

Notes
* 2007 Max score is likely over double 2011 max score
* Autonomous is much easier in 2011
* Minibots offer a very high potential, but are directly comparable to ramps

Theory
I think the max score vs an easier autonomous will somewhat balance out. Ramps will equal out minibot. Penalties exist in both games that can bring alliances to zero. I would bet that the AVERAGE Qualification score is about the same - 21 points.

Application - Week 1
* I will guess on average every third match will have two completing minibots (50 points spread across 6 alliances) Ave=8.33pts/alliance
* Assume 2 3pt penalty per match (on average) Ave =-3pts/alliance
* That means 15.67 points worth of tubes ~ 1 mid ubertube, 1 mid logo, 1 high tube or 3 low tubes.

21 points AVERAGE Qualification Score :)

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

60 to 90 qualification
100+ in final of regional and all championship matches

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

63.42754240392

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

24.6 points a match overall for the entire season

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

Average score first week: 25

Things to consider:
Tube scoring will be more efficient than in 07 as a large # of teams have recently designed a similar robot. Also we have insight into what designs worked really really well that year.

No defense being played while scoring on pegs.

Stationary pegs increases autonomous mode as well as the new sensors

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

Week 1 Quals Avg: Winner - 66 Loser - 24
Week 1 Elims Avg: Winner - 100+ Loser 60+
Week 1 High Score: 160+/-10

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals
 

Week one average winning alliance mid 50's..
Average losing alliance mid 20's

But some may have a higher overall average... Based on team list Michigan's Kettering District will be one to watch... Jeresy should also be very competitive... Not discounting that others won't have high scoring matches all day... But based on last years performance overall..

High score of the weekend 112... Three ubertubes hung and atleast 3 complete logos... This will come out of the Kettering district