Chief Delphi - Feeding VS. Throwing tubes into Play?

Whether to throw or feed a tube is entirely dependent on the situation, and not on some general rules... yet for some reason, I try to make general rules... :-)

Please understand that I talk about averages and approximations... an average implies that within that group there are deviations above and below in approximately equal frequency! Approximations are non-exact and based off of educated guess, not omniscient fore-knowledge.

Comparison to Other Games
This year will not be like '06 or '07 or '09 when the majority of teams simply threw game pieces out in the hopes of scoring them, or at least flooding the field with game pieces to allow easy pick-up. The scoring grid is simply too far away to score pieces (with more than 5% likelihood), the robot can possess only one game piece (same in '07), and alliances are going to compete over a relatively limited game piece supply.

Scoring Assumptions
The game piece supply is exactly the same as the number of tubes on the rack... Your alliance has 18 tubes to score on 18 pegs. By referencing our scouting data from '07 and assuming that scoring will of similar or lesser difficulty, I think that during teleop the bottom 50% of teams will, on average, score <1.5 tubes per match, the top 25% will score ~3 tubes per match, the top 10% ~4, and the top 2% ~5. I think these numbers may be a little high at early regionals, and may be a little low at late regionals.

Impact of These Scoring Assumptions on Game
Based on these scoring approximations, the average match will probably include about 5-7 scored tubes per alliance, during teleop. An exceptionally strong alliance could put up an average of 15 tubes. (That assumes three top 2% teams... who are unlikely to be at the same regional, let alone on the same alliance!). Essentially, these 18 scoring pegs will probably be less than 2/3 full for 98% of the matches.

The fact that there will be plenty of empty pegs means that you can lose about 1/3 of your tube supply to your opponents, without running out of tubes to score!

When to Throw, When Not to Throw!
It's easier to come up with a list of don't's, so I'll start with that. :-) *Note, "you" can apply to you or your alliance partners!
- Don't throw a tube toward midfield if you are currently scoring or otherwise occupied!
- Don't throw a tube toward midfield if you can't pick-up from the floor.
- Don't throw a tube toward midfield if your opponents are waiting for you to do so.

Alright, lets see some "Do's" that are converse (on inverse or contra-positive... I can't remember!) to our list of "Don'ts"
- Throw the tube toward midfield if your opponents are otherwise occupied.
- Throw the tube toward midfield if you are ready to pick it up from the floor.
- Throw the tube toward midfield if you can handle losing that tube to your opponents.
- Throw the tube toward midfield if you can pick-up and score that tube faster than your opponents.

Conclusion (Finally!)
So, judging this list of Do's and Don't's, it'll be more common for the stronger teams to throw the tubes out, as they will almost always be better able to get the tube than an opponent that will be lurking nearby, but it will benefit those who can afford to do it, because they can avoid driving down most of the field! Yes, it is risky, but life is not normally lived risk-free... the way to come out on top despite such risks is to take the risks that can provide large gains at low likelihood.

Looks like the HP will need good judgment... maybe even some assistance from the Analyst! :-)