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-   -   toughest regional in 2011? (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=90565)

unionylibertad 30-01-2011 23:46

toughest regional in 2011?
 
which regional do you think will be the hardest to win in 2011?

AdamHeard 30-01-2011 23:54

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
San Diego deserves a mention.

dodar 30-01-2011 23:57

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
I would say the same for Florida. Also for a mention, even as a 1st year regional, Smokey Mountain has an amazing list of teams. Florida has 79, 86, 103, 179, 233, 341 1251, 1902 and SMR has 34, 48, 71, 79, 234, 931, 1024, 2775

JB987 30-01-2011 23:57

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
I'll second that...the BBQ rating for San Diego should be impressive!

Chris is me 30-01-2011 23:58

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Michigan State Championship doesn't count.

Midwest is HUGE. Top tier: 16, 45, 71, 111, 118, 1625, 1732. Second tier: 135, 2041, 2410, 2704, 2826, 2949. Depth few regionals could match and one of the few where the bottom half of the bracket might be an actual advantage.

San Diego is strong. 254, 399, 968, 973, 987, 1388, 1538, 1622, 1717 is one hell of a top tier.

Mike Schreiber 30-01-2011 23:58

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Michigan State Championship. No explanation needed.

EricH 31-01-2011 00:05

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Toronto. There's a reason I didn't specify which Toronto event. (Well, two reasons, actually, one per event. Both have respected numbers. Both were on Einstein last year.)

Vegas will also be a battle to win, with 359 jumping in late to join 987, 60, 1726, 399, 1266, 4, and 166.

Chris is me 31-01-2011 00:10

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by EricH (Post 1012184)
Toronto. There's a reason I didn't specify which Toronto event. (Well, two reasons, actually, one per event. Both have respected numbers. Both were on Einstein last year.)

Under that logic wouldn't Waterloo be the harder event to win?

big1boom 31-01-2011 00:15

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Midwest is consistently one of the most competitive regionals. And with it falling in Week 4 this year several of the major players will already have a regional under their belts.

One thing that is interesting is the number of teams that are doing Wisconsin and Midwest this year. I guess it helps that they are 2 weeks apart this year.
Midwest/Wisconsin overlap teams:
111
1091
1625
1675
1732
1781
2022
2041
2826
3197

EricH 31-01-2011 00:16

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris is me (Post 1012191)
Under that logic wouldn't Waterloo be the harder event to win?

With those two teams separated, it's wider open, making it harder (but that is a relative term) for either to win. By that token, they'll fight harder. Makes it tougher on all the other teams.

In Waterloo, the way to win is to be above them in seeding, or to be better than one of them to the other one, who is hopefully higher in the standings. Not so terribly difficult, now, is it? ;)

nikeairmancurry 31-01-2011 00:32

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Hardest Event to win.. MSC... 64 top teams.. yes its all michigan teams.. yes you have to quailify, but still to win it, its tough... Good teams are left out of elims every year...

Hardest Regional to win Midwest..

Basel A 31-01-2011 00:46

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
TECHNICALLY MSC is a regional. It just sends way more teams to the CMP than any other.

Anyway, it's the only regional for which it takes more than fingers and toes to count all the really good teams. How was 2834 the final pick in eliminations last year? First and 2nd overall picks at ATL divisions were ranked 8th and 9th at MSC (respectively). Multiple other proofs here.

Besides, MSC (and districts, a few of which are loaded as well), I'd have to agree that Midwest is again very strong. San Diego is powerful as well. Those are two regionals I'll have to watch.

Colin P 31-01-2011 01:06

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris is me (Post 1012179)
Michigan State Championship doesn't count.

Sure it does, don't hate on us.

robodude03 31-01-2011 01:17

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris is me (Post 1012179)
Michigan State Championship doesn't count.

Midwest is HUGE. Top tier: 16, 45, 71, 111, 118, 1625, 1732. Second tier: 135, 2041, 2410, 2704, 2826, 2949. Depth few regionals could match and one of the few where the bottom half of the bracket might be an actual advantage.

San Diego is strong. 254, 399, 968, 973, 987, 1388, 1538, 1622, 1717 is one hell of a top tier.

Absolutely agree with your post. Midwest will be very interesting to keep tabs on. As for San Diego, one of the reasons we wanted to attend this event was for the sheer amount of top tier teams that are attending. Each of these teams has regional, division or world championships under their belts. This will definitely be a regional to watch (as MSC always is :P).

EricH 31-01-2011 01:20

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
The reason the MI State Championship doesn't count is because it's a championship, not a regional. If the MI teams are going to take MSC as a regional, then I'll go ahead and take the Archimedes, Curie, Galileo, Newton, and Einstein--especially Einstein--"regionals" as toughest.

Oh? You have a problem with including events that you have to qualify to get into as regionals? Well, then, MSC is not a regional.

The MI districts are tough, though. I think those should be counted as regionals; they're as large as or larger than some of the smaller regionals, and the competition level is as high or higher, especially once you get past the first event for some teams.

Akash Rastogi 31-01-2011 01:39

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Definitely San Diego. While Midwest is always strong, the San Diego teams try to one-up their level each year. Especially in the case of teams like 973, 1538, and 1717 who dramatically improve each year.

svenw 31-01-2011 01:39

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Hardest to Win: Waterloo
Toughest: Midwest or San Diego
Yes there is a difference between which are the hardest to win and which ones have the toughest competition :p

Justin Montois 31-01-2011 01:42

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Midwest.

Midwest Elims are a great look at what you should expect in St. Louis.

If 359 was going to San Diego that might have tipped it though.

Basel A 31-01-2011 02:16

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by EricH (Post 1012246)
The reason the MI State Championship doesn't count is because it's a championship, not a regional. If the MI teams are going to take MSC as a regional, then I'll go ahead and take the Archimedes, Curie, Galileo, Newton, and Einstein--especially Einstein--"regionals" as toughest.

Only being absolutely technical is MSC a regional. It just has a much more difficult registration process. :P Divisions don't count because they're officially part of the CMP.

Anyway, if we're doing districts, then Kettering and Traverse City take the cake.

Kettering has two-time defending world champ 67 and divisional alliance captains 33. As for divisional first-round picks, we have 27, 51, 67, 70, and 2337. These are just those teams that excelled at the CMP. How about MSC Champs 2834, or alliance captains of their upset district 1243? Plenty of other teams deserving recognition, like 494, 70's twin, or 3450, the remake of 397.

11 of last year's 24 MSC elimination teams came from Kettering.
By BBQ, it was the toughest week 1 event by far.

This year, due to space restriction, a few strong out-of-area teams were forced to move elsewhere, making Traverse City another strong location.

MSC Champs as captains 1918, Archimedes 2nd overall pick 201, and Newton 3rd pick and Kettering Champs 910 headline this event, but there's several other strong contenders. 830 and 2009 CMP champs 247 seek to come back from uncharacteristic lows last year. Sophomores 3357 are coming off an Einstein appearance. Newton and MSC first-round picks, twice district finalists (as captains no less), 2619 is hungry after coming up short time and time again in 2010. 2771 broke out last season, alliance captain at MSC.

Note that these are the best of the Michigan teams. Many other teams would be major contenders at most out-of-state events, but the teams I've mentioned are the ones that make it in the toughest place to play: Michigan. Some of the other Michigan events are more than loaded compared to most regionals, but Traverse City and Kettering are the toughest of the 9.

EricH 31-01-2011 02:26

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Basel A (Post 1012266)
Only being absolutely technical is MSC a regional. It just has a much more difficult registration process. :P Divisions don't count because they're officially part of the CMP.

All right, I'll take the entire CMP. 340+ teams, 4 fields, option for open registration (and then qualifying anyway), definitely a tough regional.:p

Actually, on second thought, I'll take IRI...:p:D Only 80 picked teams compete there, what's not to like? Oh, wait, not an official event

I'd say that any "compete-to-qualify-to-enter" event should be excluded from consideration for toughest regional. If you're there, it's because you're good anyway. Those events get their own category: Toughest of the Tough Events. (Eligible: MSC, CMP, IRI, other qualification/selection-based entry events I'm not aware of.) Of those, it's a tossup between MSC and IRI, but I'll take IRI (more teams, larger area that they hail from, and the insane amount of elimination ties last year). MSC for official event, with Einstein Field at CMP being tougher but not quite large enough for its own event.

Basel A 31-01-2011 02:55

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by EricH (Post 1012268)
All right, I'll take the entire CMP. 340+ teams, 4 fields, option for open registration (and then qualifying anyway), definitely a tough regional.:p

Actually, on second thought, I'll take IRI...:p:D Only 80 picked teams compete there, what's not to like? Oh, wait, not an official event

I'd say that any "compete-to-qualify-to-enter" event should be excluded from consideration for toughest regional. If you're there, it's because you're good anyway. Those events get their own category: Toughest of the Tough Events. (Eligible: MSC, CMP, IRI, other qualification/selection-based entry events I'm not aware of.) Of those, it's a tossup between MSC and IRI, but I'll take IRI (more teams, larger area that they hail from, and the insane amount of elimination ties last year). MSC for official event, with Einstein Field at CMP being tougher but not quite large enough for its own event.

By technical, I wasn't creating a definition of regional, but rather using FIRST's working standard. By FRC, MSC is a regional. I tentatively assume their definition is something along the lines of "Event that directly qualifies teams for the Championship," but this doesn't consider that district results plays into who goes from MI.

Regardless, I would agree with you otherwise. I'd go with Einstein, then IRI, the MSC. Einstein is a bit easier because you only have to win 4 matches though :P

Koko Ed 31-01-2011 03:05

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
I go to alot of regionals every year and of the six events I am going to this year Midwest should be stronger than FLR by a slight margin.
I expect improvements from Midwest in quality of competition this year (there was a huge drop off in quality after the top level teams at the event last year) with no other Midwestern regionals to dilute the pool at the event like it did last year. If 1114 came back there would be no question which was the strongest regional.
FLR is good at attracting solid Canadian teams and is one of the few regionals that can still attract teams from the Michigan to come. Teams from the mid Atlantic and the midwest often come as well. It is stronger in the middle of the pack than the Midwest which makes it more competitive during qualification. Being a week 1 regional hurts FLR as it will most likely be plagued by bugs while Midwest should have no such problems by week 4 and many of their teams should be doing their second regional.

gorrilla 31-01-2011 06:53

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Florida is going to be really intense this year.

Chris is me 31-01-2011 09:49

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
MSC isn't a regional for this discussion because it doesn't have open registration. The event is aiming to be the strongest event of the year by design and thus restricts invitations to the best. All other events, including Championship to an extent, have open registration.

You know what's weird? One of the following teams won't win Midwest this year: 16, 111, 71, 1625. To win that event you'll have to pick one of those teams or get through an alliance of two of those. Not even factoring in the other teams, is that something you can accomplish?

Lil' Lavery 31-01-2011 10:27

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
The regional with the most elite teams is rarely the toughest to win.

Patrick Seeney 31-01-2011 11:09

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Any regional featuring 469 is going to be tough :P ...we got some tricks up our sleeves that will be revealed at our first district event!

nikeairmancurry 31-01-2011 11:24

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Patrick Seeney (Post 1012391)
Any regional featuring 469 is going to be tough :P ...we got some tricks up our sleeves that will be revealed at our first district event!

Whips sweat from forehead... Can't wait to see it at MSC...

Chris is me 31-01-2011 11:57

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Patrick Seeney (Post 1012391)
Any regional featuring 469 is going to be tough :P ...we got some tricks up our sleeves that will be revealed at our first district event!

What year does this comment not apply to?

thefro526 31-01-2011 12:29

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery (Post 1012364)
The regional with the most elite teams is rarely the toughest to win.

There is wisdom in this post.

In a field with a lot of depth like many that are being listed; San Diego, Midwest, Florida, MSC give you a better opportunity of being with strong alliance members, if you're a strong team yourself.

Personally, I find it hardest to do well when you're a strong team in a field of weaker teams, since it's harder to get with another strong team, and usually if two strong teams get together they walk right through the eliminations unopposed.

EricH 31-01-2011 13:49

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by thefro526 (Post 1012438)
Personally, I find it hardest to do well when you're a strong team in a field of weaker teams, since it's harder to get with another strong team, and usually if two strong teams get together they walk right through the eliminations unopposed.

True that. L.A. 2008, 330 and 1717 made everyone else play for second place right from the get-go. L.A. 2010, the same two teams had to fight a lot harder, against the eventual World Champion team 294.

Chris is me 31-01-2011 13:52

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Isn't that disproving his point though? That's an example of more powerhouse teams making a regional harder to win.

thefro526 31-01-2011 14:03

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris is me (Post 1012500)
Isn't that disproving his point though? That's an example of more powerhouse teams making a regional harder to win.

It really depends on who's asking the question. I guess it's different depending on how good your machine and robot is.

Arefin Bari 31-01-2011 15:41

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Patrick Seeney (Post 1012391)
Any regional featuring 469 is going to be tough :P ...we got some tricks up our sleeves that will be revealed at our first district event!

Again?

Koko Ed 31-01-2011 15:48

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
The 469 statement applies to the usual suspects who always make it to Einstein. Most of them don't say much of anything on CD they just build excellence and silently wait to deploy their creation on the unsuspecting masses come competition time when it's too late to do anything about it.

Andrew Schreiber 31-01-2011 22:44

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Basel A (Post 1012266)
3450, the remake of 397.

I appreciate the mention but I have to correct this false statement since I know I will be hearing this repeated if I don't quash it now. Team 3450 is a distinct and unique entity that is not related to 397. 397 was put on hiatus as a team due to lack of student interest. Several of the mentors, myself and brother among them, worked together to form a new team. We accepted the 3 students from 397 who were still interested (within the limit of 5 returning students for rookie teams) and moved to a different school. This was accomplished with a ton of help from our sister team 314, Big Mo. To say that 3450 is just 397 remade is like saying that Top Gear US is just like Top Gear UK. Some of the elements are there but I think you will find that they are drastically different. All of the mentors who came over from 397 have agreed that it is a completely different team this year.

Anyway, thank you for the mention, we will try not to disappoint you.

PS. Sorry for the off topic post, I have heard several people make this statement (not on CD) and felt that it was important to clear up any misconceptions about our team and our motives. If you have further questions feel free to PM me or stop by our shop (PM for address and times).

Basel A 31-01-2011 22:58

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Andrew Schreiber (Post 1012948)
I appreciate the mention but I have to correct this false statement since I know I will be hearing this repeated if I don't quash it now. Team 3450 is a distinct and unique entity that is not related to 397.

Ah, my apologies, Andrew.

Andrew Schreiber 31-01-2011 23:02

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Basel A (Post 1012963)
Ah, my apologies, Andrew.

Not a problem, I can see where that misconception would come from.

pfreivald 31-01-2011 23:41

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
The toughest regional that matters is the one you're in!

Hellfeier675 01-02-2011 01:19

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Silicon Valley.

Dargel1625 01-02-2011 01:30

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris is me (Post 1012423)
What year does this comment not apply to?

When it comes to 469, what year doesn't this apply to? ;)

ratdude747 01-02-2011 01:48

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Dargel1625 (Post 1013059)
When it comes to 469, what year doesn't this apply to? ;)

i find it ironic that someone from winnovation is saying that... you guys aren't exactly low-par yourselves... your team seems to defy physics some years... only you would think of 6 wheel crab.

hg273 01-02-2011 03:06

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ratdude747 (Post 1013066)
i find it ironic that someone from winnovation is saying that... you guys aren't exactly low-par yourselves... your team seems to defy physics some years... only you would think of 6 wheel crab.

How is it ironic? Admiration is universal, it does not exclude those who have achieved past success. Learning from the innovations of others is part of what makes FRC great, regardless of your own teams accomplishments or lack thereof.

delsaner 01-02-2011 08:51

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
In my opinion, there are two different definitions of toughest when it comes to a regional. Level of difficulty with teams, and level of difficulty in regards to winning the competition.

Teams: A tough regional in this case is one with a lot of powerhouse teams, Midwest in this case. It is not necessarily difficult to win in the regional, as there is a lot of variability when it comes to elimination matches, considering a good sum of the alliance will have at least one alliance.

Competition: A tough regional to win is a regional with about 2-3 powerhouse teams, assuming your team is average. It will be very likely that one of the powerhouses will become #1 seed, and its also very likely that that team will choose the other powerhouse team. I am not saying that this will happen every time, but it is a likely possibility.

$0.02

Racer26 01-02-2011 09:48

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
This ought to be an interesting year.

2056 is registered for 3 regionals for the first time. The rookie sensation, thats by no means a rookie anymore is on their quest to make it the drive for 11 consecutive regional wins, winning every regional they've ever competed in. They're looking to join that small but powerful group of teams that have won 3 in the same year.

2010 GTR represented their 8th time at the top of the podium since their first time there in 2007 at Waterloo. Can 2011 FLR, Waterloo and GTRWest be numbers 9, 10 and 11? We'll have to wait and see.

I'm excited for this year as its 1075's first attempt at 3 regionals in one year as well. We will be attending FLR, GTREast and Waterloo.

Waterloo will be tough to win. With 1114 and 2056 scheduled to attend, and the disappearance of strong teams like 1503 and 1565, its difficult to predict anything but either 1114 or 2056 seeding #1 and selecting the other. That being said, the 3 robot entry from one school in MI could be interesting (teams 216, 244, and 288)

Chris is me 01-02-2011 10:11

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
I dunno - Waterloo still has 1305, 1310, 2200, and 2609 to mix things up. It'd take one hell of an upset to get to the #1 seed but it could happen.

thefro526 01-02-2011 10:16

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris is me (Post 1013178)
I dunno - Waterloo still has 1305, 1310, 2200, and 2609 to mix things up. It'd take one hell of an upset to get to the #1 seed but it could happen.

Even if 1114 and 2056 got on the #1 Alliance, any two of the teams you listed could pull off an upset with enough skill, strategy and luck.

Racer26 01-02-2011 10:38

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Its definitely possible for 1114 and 2056 to be upset, as 2009 GTR Finals (188, 610, 1305 v 2056, 1114, 2185) very nearly demonstrated. Easily one of the most fantastic Finals I've watched in years, if a bit controversial.

Both of them play a top notch game, and they've proven time and again that outseeding both of them is a task not easily accomplished. Looking forward to competition season, I want to see what robots everyone's come up with.

Nick Lawrence 01-02-2011 10:42

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Toronto.

No questions asked.

-Nick

Racer26 01-02-2011 13:05

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Anybody up for running the BBQ/SAUCE numbers for 2011 Regional entry lists?

dodar 01-02-2011 13:08

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Ok, I've heard people talking about this stuff for years now. When people talk about a regionals BBQ number do they mean like their OPR or past experience for all teams attending or what?

Akash Rastogi 01-02-2011 13:14

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by dodar (Post 1013326)
Ok, I've heard people talking about this stuff for years now. When people talk about a regionals BBQ number do they mean like their OPR or past experience for all teams attending or what?

The best BBQ will be at the Smokey Mountain regional! I wish I could go! :D

/obligatory

iVanDuzer 01-02-2011 13:32

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris is me (Post 1013178)
I dunno - Waterloo still has 1305, 1310, 2200, and 2609 to mix things up. It'd take one hell of an upset to get to the #1 seed but it could happen.

It's definitely possible: 2609 seeded first in Waterloo 2009 over 2056 and went on to become regional champs. Last year, 1310 and 1305 teamed up in Waterloo and only lost to an alliance with 2 Einstein robots by 3 points in the finals. A week later 1305 did the same thing in the GTR semifinals (except by 4 points), with the score actually being even until the endgame.
(1305 also became semi-finalists on Galileo last year, upsetting 1717's alliance in the quarters)

The Canadian regionals are often overlooked but are tremendously competitive all the same (2009 GTR Finals, anyone?). I'm glad that they're getting a lot of publicity now.

That being said, I'm particularly looking forward to Midwest and Silicon Valley south of the border.

Racer26 01-02-2011 13:57

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by dodar (Post 1013326)
Ok, I've heard people talking about this stuff for years now. When people talk about a regionals BBQ number do they mean like their OPR or past experience for all teams attending or what?

BBQ = Blue Banner Quotient
SAUCE = Sextuple Advancement Uniform Counting Era

A regional's BBQ is The number of blue banners earned by all teams in attendance, divided by the number of teams in attendance. It is intended to be a gauge by which to measure the power of the teams in attendance at a given regional.

A regional's SAUCE only counts blue banners earned since 2005, when 3v3 play started.

Blue banners are earned for Regional Chairman's Award, and Regional Champion teams. Each regional awards 4 blue banners per season (5 if the winning alliance called in a backup bot). The CMP Divisions award 3 banners each, for Division Champion, and CMP awards 3 blue banners for einstein champions, and 1 for Championship Chairmans. I'm unsure of how banners are awarded in MI's district model (mostly regarding CA's)

Racer26 01-02-2011 14:12

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
If my counts are correct (i fixed a couple errors in FIRSTs data):

Waterloo BBQ: 44/30 = 1.46667
Waterloo SAUCE: 39/30 = 1.3

Teams:

216: 1 Blue Banner
244: 0 (Non-rookie new team)
288: 0
610: 2 Blue banners (0 since 2005)
781: 1 Blue banner (0 since 2005)
843: 1 Blue banner
854: 0
865: 2 Blue banners (1 since 2005)
907: 0
1075: 0
1114: 21 Blue banners (20 since 2005)
1219: 0
1241: 2 Blue banners
1305: 4 Blue banners
1310: 0
1312: 0
1325: 0
1334: 0
1535: 0
1846: 0
2056: 9 Blue banners
2200: 0
2361: 0
2609: 1 Blue banner
2625: 0
2702: 0
3161: 0
3396: 0
3683: 0 (rookie)
3756: 0 (rookie)

Its worth noting that 1114 represents more than half of Waterloo's SAUCE.

Doug G 01-02-2011 14:37

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Silicon Valley:

BBQ: 56/56 = 1.0
SAUCE: 40/56 = .714

bam-bam 01-02-2011 14:53

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
I say......

BOILERMAKER REGIONAL! =DDD

I wish.

EagleEngineer 01-02-2011 15:01

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
i have to agree that San Diego is going to be one of the top competitions in the world. 987 is going to have a world championship robot, considering they won in 2007, and 254 is going for a world championship win this year. :eek: It going to be a tough competition. :eek:

Racer26 01-02-2011 15:48

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
GTR BBQ/SAUCEs

East:

BBQ: 38/36 = 1.05556
SAUCE: 33/36 = 0.91667

188: 4 Blue Banners (2 since 2005)
296: 3 Blue banners
467: 1 Blue banner (0 since 2005)
886: 0
907: 0
919: 0
1006: 3 Blue banners (2 since 2005)
1009: 0 (returning after a FIVE YEAR hiatus)!
1075: 0
1114: 21 Blue banners (20 since 2005)
1241: 2 Blue banners
1246: 0
1404: 0
1482: 0
1503: 3 Blue banners (all from 2006, w/1114)
1514: 0
1815: 0
2198: 0
2200: 0
2609: 1 Blue banner
2625: 0
2626: 0
2670: 0
3040: 0
3117: 0
3360: 0
3379: 0
3386: 0
3527: 0 (rookie)
3530: 0 (rookie)
3532: 0 (rookie)
3544: 0 (rookie)
3560: 0 (rookie)
3563: 0 (rookie)
3698: 0 (rookie)
3705: 0 (rookie)


West:

BBQ: 23/36 = 0.63889
SAUCE: 19/36 = 0.52778

610: 2 Blue banners (0 since 2005)
771: 2 Blue Banners (not 3 as frclinks.com/t/771 might suggest - Thanks Karthik!)
772: 0
781: 1 Blue banner (0 since 2005)
854: 0
865: 2 Blue banners (1 since 2005)
1053: 0
1219: 0
1221: 0
1305: 4 Blue banners
1310: 0
1325: 0
1334: 0
1547: 3 Blue banners
1835: 0
1846: 0
2056: 9 Blue banners
2076: 0
2386: 0
2634: 0
2809: 0
2852: 0
2935: 0
3161: 0
3382: 0
3387: 0
3531: 0 (rookie)
3533: 0 (rookie)
3541: 0 (rookie)
3543: 0 (rookie)
3550: 0 (rookie)
3571: 0 (rookie)
3590: 0 (rookie)
3664: 0 (rookie)
3710: 0 (rookie)
3739: 0 (rookie)

with a combined 18 rookies making up 25% of the field, this should be interesting. According to BBQ and SAUCE, the EAST should be the harder of the two halves, but once again, 1114 accounts for more than half the BBQ and nearly 2/3rds of the SAUCE.

And in case you were wondering:

Combined GTR:
BBQ: 61/72 = 0.84722
SAUCE: 52/72 = 0.72222


EDIT: a side note: it seems to me there a significant number of vets missing here. 2505 comes to mind right off the bat.

Lil' Lavery 01-02-2011 16:12

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Too much hyping of your own regional going on in here.

big1boom 01-02-2011 16:13

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
After manually going through the FIRST data ( I might have missed a couple)

MIDWEST
BBQ 1.653846154
SAUCE 1.192307692

Team Number Blue Banners since 2005(pre2005)
16 5(6)
45 5(4)
71 10(8)
101 0
111 9(4)
118 6(2)
135 0
896 0
1091 0

8th year
1367 0

7th year
1625 8
1675 1

6th year
1732 2
1739 0
1781 0
1850 1

5th year
1987 3
2022 0
2041 2
2115 0
2136 0
2151 0
2171 2
2194 2

4th year
2338 0
2358 0
2410 1
2432 0
2462 0

3rd year
2704 0
2709 0
2725 0
2769 0
2781 0
2803 0
2826 1
2949 0
3061 0
3067 0
3110 0

2nd year
3135 0
3177 0
3197 0
3352 1
3416 0

Rookies
3488 0
3494 0
3595 0
3612 0
3646 0
3695 0
3779 0

EDIT:
Updated team 16

Meredith Novak 01-02-2011 17:07

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by big1boom (Post 1013489)
After manually going through the FIRST data ( I might have missed a couple)

Midwest BBQ=1.519
Midwest SAUCE=1.115

Team Number Blue Banners since 2005(pre2005)
16 4(3)

Team 16 has 11 total banners including 5 since 2005. So 5(6) would be correct.

TEE 01-02-2011 17:26

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by EricH (Post 1012246)
The reason the MI State Championship doesn't count is because it's a championship, not a regional. If the MI teams are going to take MSC as a regional, then I'll go ahead and take the Archimedes, Curie, Galileo, Newton, and Einstein--especially Einstein--"regionals" as toughest.

In the last two years, the Michigan State Championship has seemed more competitive than the four divisions at the World Championship to me :rolleyes:

Honestly though, there are a ton of teams at the world championship that do not qualify, and do not perform as well as the top teams. (I remember because they make scouting a pain)

TEE 01-02-2011 17:33

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Patrick Seeney (Post 1012391)
Any regional featuring 469 is going to be tough :P ...we got some tricks up our sleeves that will be revealed at our first district event!

Again? O.O

big1boom 01-02-2011 17:54

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Meredith Novak (Post 1013532)
Team 16 has 11 total banners including 5 since 2005. So 5(6) would be correct.

Thanks for the correction. If anyone else notices a correction, please post or PM me.

MIDWEST
BBQ 1.653846154
SAUCE 1.192307692

Koko Ed 01-02-2011 18:32

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Total overall in parenthesis.
I counted EI which is a banner award.
FLR BBQ:1.705
FLR Sauce: 1.295
73 = 0 (1)
145 = 0
156 (rookie)
174 = 4
188 = 2 (3)
191 = 2 (4)
211 = 0
217 = 17 (18)
229 = 1 (2)
250 = 1
340 = 7(11)
578 = 0 (1)
639 = 1
716 = 1(2)
843 = 1
1075 = 0
1126 = 3(6)
1153 = 0
1405 = 0(1)
1450 = 1
1511 = 8
1518 = 0
1528 = 0
1551 = 1
1559 = 0
1585 = 0
1591 = 0
1640 = 0
1765 = 0
2053 = 0
2056 = 9
2228 = 0
2340 = 0
2852 = 0
2994 = 0
3003 = 0
3015 = 0
3157 = 0
3173 = 0
3181 = 0
3613 (rookie)
3799 (rookie)
3838 (rookie)
3842 (rookie)

Chris is me 01-02-2011 18:42

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Koko Ed (Post 1013619)
I counted EI which is a banner award.

As of last year this isn't true.

Koko Ed 01-02-2011 18:48

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris is me (Post 1013629)
As of last year this isn't true.

Considering that it earns you a trip to the championship it should still count as a Blue Banner award.

Henry Williams 01-02-2011 18:48

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris is me (Post 1013629)
As of last year this isn't true.

Yeah, I wish it was but no banner for 461 last year...

big1boom 01-02-2011 18:52

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
So for the BBQ/SAUCE, blue banners are
1) Regional Winner
2) Regional Chairmans
3) Division Champion
4) World Champion
5) Championship Chairmans

Anything else?

XaulZan11 01-02-2011 19:03

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Assuming that we are talking about toughest regional to become Regional Champion, does it make sense to include chairmans or any other non-regional/divison/world championship blue banner?

Chris is me 01-02-2011 19:04

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Koko Ed (Post 1013635)
Considering that it earns you a trip to the championship it should still count as a Blue Banner award.

Rookie All Star also does not give you a banner.

The BBQ is defined as things that give you a Blue Banner - I don't see why it should be less simple than that.

BrendanB 01-02-2011 19:09

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris is me (Post 1013651)
Rookie All Star also does not give you a banner.

The BBQ is defined as things that give you a Blue Banner - I don't see why it should be less simple than that.

Because it is almost like second place Chairmans and is still not an easy task to achieve!

Chris is me 01-02-2011 19:11

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Neither is Rookie All Star, or Regional Finalist...

The metric is named "Blue Banner Quotient" - using something other than blue banners with it is inaccurate and confusing.

XaulZan11 01-02-2011 19:16

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Question: Are we talking about toughest regional to win on the field with your robot, or toughest regional to win chairmans? If it is the former, using all blue banners is not the best idea. I think giving 2 points for winning regional and 1 point for finalist (or something similar) would lead to much more accurate results instead of counting something (chairmans award) that is completely illrelevent.

BrendanB 01-02-2011 19:17

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris is me (Post 1013659)
Neither is Rookie All Star, or Regional Finalist...

The metric is named "Blue Banner Quotient" - using something other than blue banners with it is inaccurate and confusing.

But they were a blue banner which is still counted in the 2005-2009 season.

Chris is me 01-02-2011 19:22

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by BrendanB (Post 1013667)
But they were a blue banner which is still counted in the 2005-2009 season.

There was no blue banner for EI in 2007 - for sure as well. I don't believe it ever has been awarded a blue banner.

Koko Ed 01-02-2011 19:30

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by XaulZan11 (Post 1013650)
Assuming that we are talking about toughest regional to become Regional Champion, does it make sense to include chairmans or any other non-regional/divison/world championship blue banner?

If that's the case then you might as well go with straight up won/loss record over the last five years.
There are cases of teams winning championshps that have a losing record. Does that make them a strong team?

BrendanB 01-02-2011 19:35

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
It is going to be extremely hard to determine which regional is the hardest. FIRST isn't a sport, the game, strategy, robot, and team changes each and every year.

Midwest is full of powerhouse teams, but if they are all extremely good and everyone else is mediocre than the competition lies between only those good teams.

What about the regionals that are full of good teams?

Koko Ed 01-02-2011 19:37

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by BrendanB (Post 1013681)
It is going to be extremely hard to determine which regional is the hardest. FIRST isn't a sport, the game, strategy, robot, and team changes each and every year.

Midwest is full of powerhouse teams, but if they are all extremely good and everyone else is mediocre than the competition lies between only those good teams.

What about the regionals that are full of good teams?

Even Michigan doesn't have that. Not until the MSC.

Basel A 01-02-2011 20:41

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Koko Ed (Post 1013682)
Even Michigan doesn't have that. Not until the MSC.

You could argue that even MSC doesn't have it either, but it's the closest any event gets, perhaps even compared to IRI.

Andrew Schreiber 01-02-2011 20:49

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1075guy (Post 1013323)
Anybody up for running the BBQ/SAUCE numbers for 2011 Regional entry lists?

I'll see if I can dig my old scripts out, can't run them right now though because I have a bad internet connection at school and no internet at home. I'll post em if I find em so someone else can run them.

BrendanB 01-02-2011 20:58

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Koko Ed (Post 1013682)
Even Michigan doesn't have that. Not until the MSC.

I was thinking more of a regional like GSR with no super team who always wins although 121/78 have made it to the finals for the past 3 years, but it is full of good teams who when you look at the list you know they will have a competitive robot that can sway a match.

20,40,58,69,78,126,175,1058,1073,1519,1772,and 1922. If all of these teams stuck with their previous standards, that is 12 of 53 good robots who can make for a very interesting finals before the third picks.

I'm not saying GSR is the hardest, but sometimes such events are harder to win.

Koko Ed 01-02-2011 20:59

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Basel A (Post 1013724)
You could argue that even MSC doesn't have it either, but it's the closest any event gets, perhaps even compared to IRI.

Even IRi has the occasional soft spot (though I haven't seen a true sacrificial lamb alliance yet).

team388girl 01-02-2011 21:04

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
i would have to say that the Virginia Regional would be hard because of of 64 teams that compete there, anyone from there agree :)

Tyler Hicks 01-02-2011 22:40

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Michigan has a great championship event, and I do believe it's classified as a Regional. I'm looking forward to TC and WM districts! I have a feeling it's going to be a very interesting season.

MarkoRamius1086 01-02-2011 23:05

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
How about this... Can we identify the "Hardest Regional" by week, and then decide from there? Otherwise this is a free-for-all. I would say do Weeks 1-6... and a seperate division for the Michigain Districts and Champs (No offense... and if anything that is a compliment to your competitiveness!)

Week 1:
Granite State --- New Jersey --- Finger Lakes --- Alamo

Week 2:
San Diego --- Florida --- WPI --- Lake Superior --- Greater Kansas City --- Pittsburg --- Wisconsin --- New York City

Week 2.5:
Israel

Week 3:
Arizona --- Sacremento --- Peachtree --- Boilermaker --- Bayou --- Chesapeake --- St. Louis --- Oklahoma --- Lone Star --- Seattle Olympic --- Seattle Cascade

Week 4:
Washington DC --- Waterloo --- Los Angeles --- Hawaii --- Midwest --- Long Island --- Oregon --- Palmetto

Week 5:
East Toronto --- West Toronto --- Silicon Valley --- Connecticut --- 10000 Lakes --- North Star --- Las Vegas --- Smokey Mountain

Week 6:
Colorado --- Boston --- North Carolina --- Buckeye --- Philadelphia --- Dallas --- Utah --- Virginia

Michigan:
Week 1:
Traverse City --- Kettering University

Week 2:
Waterford

Week 3:
West Michigan --- Detroit

Week 4:
Ann Arbor --- Niles

Week 5:
Livonia --- Troy

Week 6:
Michigan Champs


Best of luck this season!
Petrie

Basel A 01-02-2011 23:16

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Close, but Kettering over TC, Detroit over WM, AA over Niles, and Troy over Livonia.

xSAWxBLADEx 01-02-2011 23:19

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Basel A (Post 1013902)
Close, but Kettering over TC, Detroit over WM, AA over Niles, and Troy over Livonia.

agreed :)

Alpha Beta 01-02-2011 23:33

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Basel A (Post 1013902)
Close, but Kettering over TC, Detroit over WM, AA over Niles, and Troy over Livonia.

I don't think these are pre-listed in order of strength. It is unlikely that Colorado will be more competative than Dallas in week 6, although we will try our best to make it as competative as possible.

hg273 01-02-2011 23:40

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
I manually went through FIRST's data, so I could be missing some, but here's San Deigo.
Format: Blue Banners since '05 (Total Blue Banners)

BBQ - 70/59 = 1.1864
SAUCE - 53/59 =.8983


254 - 13 (23)
294 - 4 (8)
399 - 3 (3)
585 - 1 (2)
589 - 0
599 - 0
687 - 0
702 - 0
812 - 3 (3)
968 - 4 (5)
973 - 1
980 - 2 (3)
981 - 0
987 - 8 (8)
1160 - 0
1266 - 1 (1)
1372 - 0
1388 - 0 (1)
1538 - 2 (2)
1540 - 4 (4)
1572 - 0
1622 - 1 (1)
1717 - 4 (4)
1967 - 0
1972 - 0
2029 - 0
2090 - 0
2102 - 0
2193 - 0
2339 - 0
2348 - 1 (1)
2439 - 0
2477 - 0
2485 - 0
2493 - 0
2543 - 1 (1)
2658 - 0
2827 - 0
2839 - 0
2984 - 0
3021 - 0
3128 - 0
3195 - 0
3226 - 0
3255 - 0
3341 - 0
3453 - 0
3470 - 0
3476 - 0
3477 - 0
3480 - 0
3486 - 0
3491 - 0
3500 - 0
3647 - 0
3704 - 0
3749 - 0
3794 - 0
3849 - 0

dodar 02-02-2011 00:19

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Florida BBQ/Sauce
BBQ: 89/61=1.460
Sauce:22/61=.361

21:1(0)
79:8(3)
86:4(0)
103:8(4)
108:2(2)
168:1(1)
179:4(0)
180:4(3)
233:18(4)
341:16(3)
386:2(1)
597:3(0)
665:0(0)
744:0(0)
801:1(0)
945:1(1)
1027:1(0)
1065:0(0)
1251:4(0)
1523:1(0)
1543:0(0)
1557:1(0)
1592:2(0)
1604:0(0)
1612:1(0)
1649:2(0)
1875:0(0)
1902:4(0)
2023:0(0)
2152:0(0)
2383:0(0)
2425:0(0)
2556:0(0)
2564:0(0)
2757:0(0)
2797:0(0)
2916:0(0)
3149:0(0)
3164:0(0)
3242:0(0)
3332:0(0)
3376:0(0)
3410:0(0)
Rookies:18

Basel A 02-02-2011 00:23

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Alpha Beta (Post 1013911)
I don't think these are pre-listed in order of strength. It is unlikely that Colorado will be more competative than Dallas in week 6, although we will try our best to make it as competative as possible.

Oh, I was only ranking the districts. I don't know enough about the out-of-state teams to rank the other events. Plus, you never know until you get there. TC could easily be tougher than Kettering this year. Every year, obscure teams come of the mist with great robots, or there's a rookie sensation. FRC has a huge season-to-season variability, besides some teams that seem to always excel.

hg273 02-02-2011 01:23

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
I'm not putting Autodesk Oregon into the running, but I was curious to see what our other regional was looking like, as well as to provide a comparison between what's reputed to be a top-flight regional (San Diego) with a more average one (Oregon). The difference is quite interesting (at least to scouting geeks like me :cool: ).

Here are the numbers:

BBQ:
San Diego - 1.1864
Autodesk Oregon - .5667

SAUCE:
San Diego - .8983
Autodesk Oregon - .4833

Tyler Hicks 02-02-2011 09:00

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Basel A (Post 1013929)
TC could easily be tougher than Kettering this year. Every year, obscure teams come of the mist with great robots, or there's a rookie sensation. FRC has a huge season-to-season variability, besides some teams that seem to always excel.

Agreed. And not to mention, have you seen the team list for WM? It's going to be very competitive.

Racer26 02-02-2011 09:35

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
I know I'm the one that suggested the return of the BBQ/SAUCE metric. I'm wondering if theres a better way to judge regional difficulty.

I say this, because the BBQ/SAUCE method of assessing such will always show regionals at which teams like 1114, 2056, 217, 148, 254, 1625, and so on are in attendance as markedly harder to win. Teams with a disproportionately high number of banners will skew any regional they attend (as has happened with Waterloo and GTR East thanks to 1114.)

Any ideas for a better method?

pandamonium 02-02-2011 10:03

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
IMO this whole blue banner thing is a wash. What if teams don't submit chairman's at that regional? In general I feel that FLR is undervalued, I am not saying that it is the best. Beeing week one hurts the competition in general. a large # of teams also going to the Rochester Rally preseason event counters this and helps it seem less like a week 1.

pfreivald 02-02-2011 10:38

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pandamonium (Post 1014003)
IMO this whole blue banner thing is a wash. What if teams don't submit chairman's at that regional? In general I feel that FLR is undervalued, I am not saying that it is the best. Beeing week one hurts the competition in general. a large # of teams also going to the Rochester Rally preseason event counters this and helps it seem less like a week 1.

2009 saw the worst-performing robot that 1551 has ever put together. Neat design, just didn't play the game for squat.

2010 saw us picking 217 and 174 to join us in the top-seeded alliance.

So now we have a blue banner, but I don't think we're a fundamentally different team than we were in the past. We nailed the strategy for last year's game (though not as well as 469), and built a robot that excelled at enacting that strategy (at least on the first-week regional level... it kinda took a beating and decided to fall apart repeatedly at Championship). Yet there were other teams there that consistently do very well that last year were not all that impressive on the field.

My point being that the BBQ might not be all it's SAUCEd up to be -- sometimes teams are very surprising in both good and bad ways. Some teams are consistently awesome every year, teams to look up to and to aspire to be. Some teams are consistently middle-of-the-road in terms of robot performance, but can break out and do great things or break down and do poorly (on the field) in one particular game.

A further reason that BBQ might be skewed is that a single robot winning multiple regionals in one year can net a team multiple Blue Banners, while a team that has a robot as good or better that only wins one regional gets only one Blue Banner. Being tournament champions four times in one year, methinks, means a lot less than being tournament champions once for four separate years.

It's an interesting metric, but I'm not sure it's a good one for determining regional difficulty... And that's ignoring the fact that the number of data points are so small that if you tried to do any meaningful statistics on them, you'd get GIGO.

Andrew Schreiber 02-02-2011 12:10

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pandamonium (Post 1014003)
IMO this whole blue banner thing is a wash. What if teams don't submit chairman's at that regional? In general I feel that FLR is undervalued, I am not saying that it is the best. Beeing week one hurts the competition in general. a large # of teams also going to the Rochester Rally preseason event counters this and helps it seem less like a week 1.

Got a better way of numerically ranking events? I'm listening and will do my best to implement it into my scripts.

pandamonium 02-02-2011 13:19

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
well if you really want to put in the work look at karthick's power ratings for each team at each regional

xSAWxBLADEx 02-02-2011 13:43

Re: toughest regional in 2011?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pfreivald (Post 1014030)
2009 saw the worst-performing robot that 1551 has ever put together. Neat design, just didn't play the game for squat.

2010 saw us picking 217 and 174 to join us in the top-seeded alliance.

Just like 247

2009 saw us at Einstein with 217 and 68

2010 saw us having a mess of a train train and not even getting into the elims at states (for future reference dont use belts if your planing to get into a pushing match :/)

every year is different


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