Chief Delphi - 2011 Newton Division

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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joe Ross (Post 1056673)

Here's how teams seeded with 10 wins, 9 wins, and 8 wins respectively.

Code:

Seed        20qp        18qp        16qp

1        75        23        0

2        43        52        0

3        12        82        1

4        3        89        5

5        1        78        12

6        0        50        39

7        0        28        63

8        0        12        84

9        0        4        95

10        0        0        97

11        0        0        89

12        0        0        75

13        0        0        56

14        0        0        32

15        0        0        19

16        0        0        8

17        0        0        5

18        0        0        2

19        0        0        1

So with two losses you have a chance at the top 8, but in most scenarios you'll find yourself juuuust out of range.

Got it.

-John

Re: 2011 Newton Division

So if I'm looking at the data right there was one team who won 10 matches and ended up ranked fifth? Were there some regionals that played more than 10 matches?

Re: 2011 Newton Division

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drivencrazy (Post 1056697)

So if I'm looking at the data right there was one team who won 10 matches and ended up ranked fifth? Were there some regionals that played more than 10 matches?

This is a simulated match schedule. Or rather, 100 simulated match schedules were run and compared. Yes, there were regionals with more than 10 matches.

What you're seeing is that with 10 wins in a 10-match schedule, the lowest possible seed is 5th place.

Re: 2011 Newton Division

Ooh! We're on Newton! Do we get figs?

Oughta be way fun. Come by 1676 and say hello, we'll be there from Wednesday as soon as they let us in, on. 'cept for the webhug and Bill's presentations of course.

Re: 2011 Newton Division

Quote:

Originally Posted by DonRotolo (Post 1056871)

Ooh! We're on Newton! Do we get figs?

My dad had many versions of Fig Newton jokes this year. He seriously considered buying a box and giving it to the comp team so they could eat 2-4 Newtons before each match, because that's how many it takes to Trigger the Tower :D. Maybe it would have helped our first qual match at Philly because apparently we didn't have enough Newtons that match :rolleyes:

It is really too bad the Towers on your field will not Trigger because there is only 1 Newton ;)

OK, I'll stop now...

Re: 2011 Newton Division

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alpha Beta (Post 1056686)

Wow, looks like you had 1 run with 5 undefeated teams. If you're way ahead on tubes you may have to let the other alliance's minibot beat you or at least feed them some tubes to try and get some ranking points.

It's not so much that there are 10 matches, but 10 matches in a field of 88 teams. So 2 strong teams, A & B, will face each other in qualifying with a 30/87 or only 34% probability. With three strong teams it's about 29% likely that none of them will face another in qualification matches.
There is a good chance of multiple no-loss teams vying for the #1 spot, so there might be a slight edge to teams with weaker minibots :p

Re: 2011 Newton Division

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Lucas (Post 1056909)

Oh, man, thats bad.

Re: 2011 Newton Division

Schedule is out (first one):
http://www2.usfirst.org/2011comp/events/Newton/schedulequal.html

I haven't looked at much but 1503 has no scheduler luck in the 5th match:
25 217 3284 vs 1503 3009 3622

Re: 2011 Newton Division

Can't wait until match 94. From Opr, it seems to be the super match.

Re: 2011 Newton Division

I was too lazy to code up a ranking calculator earlier in the season (and I have homework due in the morning), but the following is a matrix of the OPR predicted match (using the OPR Joe used) results. 1st column is match number, 2nd is red alliance, 3rd is blue, 4th is the difference.

Newton Schedule

Code:

    1.0000   23.7000   51.5700  -27.8700

    2.0000  137.4200   35.2700  102.1500

    3.0000   12.2100   50.9100  -38.7000

    4.0000    3.9900   72.3900  -68.4000

    5.0000  159.3100   94.5200   64.7900

    6.0000  117.9300   57.5600   60.3700

    7.0000   13.4300   81.8500  -68.4200

    8.0000  120.5500   71.6500   48.9000

    9.0000   72.3300   35.3200   37.0100

   10.0000   98.5800   99.5200   -0.9400

   11.0000   69.1900   42.9500   26.2400

   12.0000   77.3400   19.4700   57.8700

   13.0000   56.2400   34.9900   21.2500

   14.0000   91.3500   72.8700   18.4800

   15.0000   86.5600   62.6000   23.9600

   16.0000  117.2900   69.1400   48.1500

   17.0000    5.3600   32.9600  -27.6000

   18.0000   17.9200  101.6300  -83.7100

   19.0000   54.9400   18.1200   36.8200

   20.0000  115.0000   36.9600   78.0400

   21.0000   38.4000   27.5900   10.8100

   22.0000   82.9100   72.6300   10.2800

   23.0000   81.3300  124.0900  -42.7600

   24.0000   65.6800    4.7100   60.9700

   25.0000   92.1700  113.9800  -21.8100

   26.0000   89.5400  119.1400  -29.6000

   27.0000   86.9100   77.9400    8.9700

   28.0000  115.0600   33.4200   81.6400

   29.0000   87.7800   96.2300   -8.4500

   30.0000   84.8000   33.7400   51.0600

   31.0000  123.5800   49.5400   74.0400

   32.0000   80.4000    6.4500   73.9500

   33.0000   41.0400  118.7300  -77.6900

   34.0000   48.8500   54.1000   -5.2500

   35.0000   45.9900   67.8500  -21.8600

   36.0000   35.0700   80.0900  -45.0200

   37.0000   80.1400   37.2600   42.8800

   38.0000   92.0700   84.2700    7.8000

   39.0000  192.5500   33.2300  159.3200

   40.0000   37.3400   86.6500  -49.3100

   41.0000   58.3800   53.1000    5.2800

   42.0000  104.9100   36.6300   68.2800

   43.0000   28.9000   95.8200  -66.9200

   44.0000   54.5600   97.4000  -42.8400

   45.0000   48.0800   99.1800  -51.1000

   46.0000   33.7600   29.7700    3.9900

   47.0000   31.2500  108.3900  -77.1400

   48.0000   88.6200   94.9000   -6.2800

   49.0000  108.5500   50.3800   58.1700

   50.0000   57.6800  131.1200  -73.4400

   51.0000  140.2200   42.7300   97.4900

   52.0000   67.9600   45.5800   22.3800

   53.0000   44.4400   37.8700    6.5700

   54.0000   63.6300   72.1100   -8.4800

   55.0000   86.1500   86.9300   -0.7800

   56.0000   19.1700   64.2200  -45.0500

   57.0000  143.8000  103.8600   39.9400

   58.0000   27.0400   32.5700   -5.5300

   59.0000   56.7000   61.2200   -4.5200

   60.0000   94.2800  104.6400  -10.3600

   61.0000   42.4500  114.5800  -72.1300

   62.0000   63.1900   74.5500  -11.3600

   63.0000   43.6700   42.3800    1.2900

   64.0000   40.1900   85.4300  -45.2400

   65.0000   42.9700   24.8400   18.1300

   66.0000   68.1500   66.6200    1.5300

   67.0000   69.1500  113.1300  -43.9800

   68.0000   15.0200  145.4100 -130.3900

   69.0000   68.4500   84.5000  -16.0500

   70.0000   94.0300   58.4500   35.5800

   71.0000   89.1200   57.4600   31.6600

   72.0000   74.6000   25.0700   49.5300

   73.0000   42.2200   95.6900  -53.4700

   74.0000   -5.0200  127.4000 -132.4200

   75.0000   53.8500  168.2200 -114.3700

   76.0000  117.3200   52.8800   64.4400

   77.0000   70.7600   72.9300   -2.1700

   78.0000  126.3300   46.1000   80.2300

   79.0000   50.9000   51.9000   -1.0000

   80.0000   43.9800   26.7800   17.2000

   81.0000   99.2500   69.3100   29.9400

   82.0000   74.3800   79.5600   -5.1800

   83.0000   71.9400    3.6700   68.2700

   84.0000   34.5100   59.1500  -24.6400

   85.0000   16.6600   74.4500  -57.7900

   86.0000   68.2100   80.0200  -11.8100

   87.0000   72.1500  100.1700  -28.0200

   88.0000   23.1900   96.7700  -73.5800

   89.0000   76.4800  100.4500  -23.9700

   90.0000   79.2600   36.5900   42.6700

   91.0000  120.5500   62.3700   58.1800

   92.0000  143.2100   73.8200   69.3900

   93.0000   31.4300   83.4700  -52.0400

   94.0000  119.3800  137.5300  -18.1500

   95.0000   57.1900  102.9200  -45.7300

   96.0000   58.7100   17.6700   41.0400

   97.0000   89.8700    0.0800   89.7900

   98.0000  133.2100   50.1700   83.0400

   99.0000   40.5600   86.9500  -46.3900

  100.0000   22.0800   29.3300   -7.2500

  101.0000   73.0600   87.7800  -14.7200

  102.0000   54.3600   30.4200   23.9400

  103.0000   13.9400   17.8700   -3.9300

  104.0000   48.0800   96.7500  -48.6700

  105.0000   84.0700    4.5500   79.5200

  106.0000   94.1700   70.3200   23.8500

  107.0000  118.8800   79.3000   39.5800

  108.0000   43.3900   47.1100   -3.7200

  109.0000   29.7700   32.5700   -2.8000

  110.0000  101.6400   56.5800   45.0600

  111.0000   43.7600   53.7100   -9.9500

  112.0000   39.8600   91.1400  -51.2800

  113.0000  108.9600  121.3700  -12.4100

  114.0000   68.8500   98.5600  -29.7100

  115.0000   63.9000   83.4100  -19.5100

  116.0000   12.4700  101.5500  -89.0800

  117.0000   31.8400  111.4500  -79.6100

  118.0000   96.8800  110.7000  -13.8200

  119.0000   99.3500   44.3700   54.9800

  120.0000   48.4000   97.7600  -49.3600

  121.0000   80.4200   74.9200    5.5000

  122.0000   -1.0800   24.7400  -25.8200

  123.0000   75.5600  145.0600  -69.5000

  124.0000   43.0000   23.1200   19.8800

  125.0000   63.3700   63.5200   -0.1500

  126.0000   66.7500   60.2600    6.4900

  127.0000  100.7600   24.4000   76.3600

  128.0000   36.6600   98.1600  -61.5000

  129.0000   49.3100  107.5600  -58.2500

  130.0000   88.2000   69.0300   19.1700

  131.0000   51.0800   98.6700  -47.5900

  132.0000   94.0600   42.1300   51.9300

  133.0000   54.5400  107.6500  -53.1100

  134.0000   55.4400  133.6000  -78.1600

  135.0000   40.2200   72.9400  -32.7200

  136.0000   69.0500   69.1000   -0.0500

  137.0000   88.0800   62.1200   25.9600

  138.0000   32.9900   30.5800    2.4100

  139.0000   97.2800   69.3100   27.9700

  140.0000   31.3200   86.4700  -55.1500

  141.0000  135.3400   30.6500  104.6900

  142.0000   79.3500   91.6900  -12.3400

  143.0000   66.7000   15.6100   51.0900

  144.0000   70.4700  132.6200  -62.1500

  145.0000   20.4400   40.4000  -19.9600

  146.0000   68.2300  106.6000  -38.3700

  147.0000   10.0900  111.0300 -100.9400

Re: 2011 Newton Division

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Lucas (Post 1057151)

I haven't looked at much but 1503 has no scheduler luck in the 5th match:
25 217 3284 vs 1503 3009 3622

Spoiler for 1503:

I did the schedules for the teams of EWCP members and 1503 for Akash Rastogi and Nick Lawrence, and unfortunately 1503 got the worst draw, including playing against EWCP Team 2415. Using Ian's OPR for matches, 1503 only has an advantage in about half of their matches. Should be interesting to see how accurate those OPR numbers are.

First impressions say 148 walks through qualifying untouched with 1676, 2415, and 16 not too far behind, 1-2 losses each. Should be a great few days.

Re: 2011 Newton Division

Match 39 is gonna break the game.

Re: 2011 Newton Division

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ian Curtis (Post 1057161)

~~I got a rudimentary sorter (by qualifying points only) working because I was interested. Columns are team number, OPR, QP. Interesting to see how teams "lucked out" or "unlucked out"~~

I *think* I got the full ranking working. Very interesting results... First column is team number, 2nd is OPR, 3rd is QP, 4th is cumulative opponents score (divide this by 10 to get RS). Remember this assumes the OPR predicted teams will win, so a good sensitivity analysis would look to see if some of these teams play in close matches which they might well lose. (For example, 525 is predicted to win Match 10 by less than a point)

[EDIT]I think there might be an error in my RP code. I haven't found a case where the qualifying points don't match up with a hand counted test case though. Really got to start on that homework assignment, so I'll leave these with a speculate at your own risk attached to them[/EDIT]

Here is my attempt at simulated rankings, using your match scores and an existing excel sheet of mine. I think I accounted for surrogate matches (3rd Match) correctly. Note the ThunderClucks win their surrogate match, but lose 2 others.

It begs the question again, why can't we go to 90 teams/division and eliminate these pointless surrogate matches?

Code:

Rank        Team #        QS        RS        Matches

1        525        20        68.80        10

2        148        20        50.62        10

3        1676        20        44.68        10

4        1538        18        67.90        10

5        3547        18        54.36        10

6        25        18        52.64        10

7        2848        18        51.08        10

8        27        18        48.98        10

9        2039        18        28.01        10

10        1730        16        65.86        10

11        217        16        63.26        11

12        624        16        62.75        10

13        234        16        58.62        10

14        78        16        56.90        10

15        88        16        53.22        10

16        3456        16        41.97        10

17        3138        14        66.10        10

18        2809        14        61.31        10

19        1732        14        59.72        10

20        2415        14        58.06        10

21        11        14        56.20        10

22        1731        14        55.53        10

23        2338        14        54.64        10

24        386        14        49.88        10

25        2481        14        49.73        10

26        233        12        63.62        10

27        179        12        62.50        10

28        1511        12        59.15        10

29        3284        12        56.48        10

30        1503        12        54.33        10

31        2122        12        53.29        10

32        340        12        51.09        10

33        2264        12        49.48        10

34        2342        12        45.80        11

35        353        12        45.79        10

36        836        10        57.65        10

37        494        10        53.44        10

38        447        10        45.99        10

39        1764        10        44.98        10

40        3483        10        41.38        10

41        1942        10        38.07        10

42        228        10        37.31        10

43        2662        10        33.91        10

44        1829        10        28.55        10

45        16        8        62.62        10

46        842        8        59.99        10

47        337        8        54.47        10

48        3009        8        52.21        10

49        2437        8        50.85        10

50        302        8        50.84        10

51        3521        8        49.66        10

52        811        8        49.40        10

53        1502        8        45.41        10

54        2797        8        44.12        10

55        3242        8        42.84        10

56        980        8        41.60        10

57        3536        8        41.53        10

58        1195        8        37.76        10

59        2815        8        35.07        10

60        3622        8        33.18        10

61        1801        8        32.68        10

62        3505        8        32.46        10

63        2046        6        59.20        10

64        1100        6        56.24        10

65        236        6        55.73        10

66        1710        6        51.05        10

67        3792        6        45.72        10

68        1984        6        38.99        10

69        79        6        38.86        10

70        3880        6        36.91        10

71        3612        6        34.43        10

72        3358        6        33.98        10

73        3472        6        32.92        10

74        3748        6        32.32        10

75        3278        6        29.36        10

76        2614        4        54.85        10

77        1108        4        54.66        10

78        3103        4        50.15        10

79        3478        4        42.83        10

80        1165        4        40.77        10

81        1604        4        40.56        10

82        2655        4        38.91        10

83        2197        4        33.92        10

84        3344        2        44.18        10

85        2974        2        44.11        10

86        2080        2        37.60        10

87        2660        2        36.56        10

88        3126        2        34.42        10

Re: 2011 Newton Division

Match 87 :/ That's one I definitely want to watch...unfortunately by webcast, but what can you do?

Re: 2011 Newton Division

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Lucas (Post 1057181)

Here is my attempt at simulated rankings

I did the same thing but then looked at how many close matches there were (ie, within 25 points - for the minibot race.)

We (525) have 5 close matches, 148 has 2 and 1676 has 1. If we lose all 5 of the close matches we could drop below the 35th seed.

217, 234 and 3138 move to the top if they win the close matches rather than lose them.