2011 Newton Division
 

Okay, so we might be the last ones to start the thread...but man, this is looking like fun. MORT, Bomb Squad, Raider Robotix, RUSH, AIR, Krunch, TJ^2, Swamp Thing, Thunderchickens, Robowranglers, GUS, Pink, Cyber Blue, STARBot, Martians, RoboBees, Falcons, Spartonics, Rolling Thunder, Pi-oneers, Driven, WiredCats...and those are just the ones I noticed on the first read-through.

Fun indeed.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

TJ^2 is super excited for championships and we plan on making it farther than we have in a long while.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

The RoboBees are excited! We look forward to competing with the best!

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Fantastic, competitive division. Can't wait to see some of our friends we've met in the past (148, 16, and 2815 to name a few)!

(word for all the teams here, scout the crap out of 2815. billfred effect)

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Yep, 2415's excited to be there! We've made a lot of improvements after seeing 148's impressive robot at Alamo and hope to be really competitive. See you all in St. Louis!

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

AIR Strike is very excited to play with this solid division in Newton! Our drivers were ready to keep going after our week 6 regional win in Boston. Luckily, they won't have to wait long!

Let's have some fun Newton!!!

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

By Tim's request here is the High and Avg OPR (hat tip to Travis) for Newton

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Thanks Brian! I wil be with 401 at Champs, so I look forward to working with MOE again

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Yay! I'm so happy to see so many teams in Newton this year! :)

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

And there is a Newton anniversary on this day (April 15): http://www.wired.com/thisdayintech/2...n-apple-story/

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

it's good to be in the same division as 148 again. look forward to competing against and with them along with all the other competition. especially our kc regional partners 525. good to be back with them again. good to compete with bomb squad before the cowtown throw down.

btw Team Driven is ready for more logomotion... new wrist is all i have to say to those pesky claw crushing defensive teams :)

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

If I have to be stuck in the pits 2 out of the 3 days, im happy it's with the teams in the Newton Division.

Instead of calling out all the amazing teams by name im just going to say that I can't wait for St. Louis, the Newton Division is going to be rocking and we are going to make Newton THE divsion to watch.

IIIISSSAAAAACCCCCC!!!!!!!!!!!!

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

i'm looking for a robowrangler and/or thunderchickens shirt. i've got several Team Driven. pm me if you're willing to trade

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Wow this will be fun to watch!

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Team 2046 Bear Metal, is excited and ready to play with all the other great teams on Newton this year.

I will say, i'm a little intimidated, but i'm sure we can hold our own, maybe even turn a few heads, and as always we'll learn a lot. It should be a blast.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

I wish you luck my friend! They are hard to come by these days

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Glad to see TJ^2 and GRR in Newton with us! Looking forward to playing with and against some of the other legendary teams in Newton, as well!

This looks to be a fun division!

Steve

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

NEWTON!!! :D

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Looking at the line up for Newton, I'm definitely cheering for Newton to have an alliance achieve the perfect 158 score before the other divisions...:)

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Don't forget to HAVE FUN!!

Good luck Bear Metal. We'll be rooting for ya...

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

This will be interesting. Newton should be a real threat on Einstein.

See you in St. Louis

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

I agree.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Team 1126, SparX, will not be in attendance at nationals this year, but we'll be cheering on a number of friends from the Finger Lakes Region. Newton division definitely has my eye this year, and you can be sure I'll be jumping out of my seat just as if I was actually there!

Best of luck to everyone! It's going to be a tough division!

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Newton is going to be a fun and competitive division.

It's great to be in the same division as AirStrike, our winning alliance partners from Boston, 1100 a fellow Massachusetts team, and to be back with friends from our Week 3 trip to Chesapeake, 340, 836, 1195 & 3748.

[I'm also volunteering in the pits, so selfishly I'm very happy that Newton will be competing there Thursday & Saturday.]

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

We are looking forward to seeing friends in St. Louis. Paola, Mountain Home, Liberty to name a few. We wish everyone luck and hope Newton does well on Einstein. Looks like several powerhouse groups.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Ahhhh, this is going to be a good one. Team 228 is extremely pleased with the team selection this year! Keep an eye out for our Glowing;] robot, he's ready for any challenge presented this year! Go Gus!

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Team 2614 is very excited to meet all the great teams on Newton!
We've put in a lot of practice since Palmetto and we can't wait to put it to good use on the field.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

1732 is a last minute addition to Newton! Its been pretty cool to think your season is over for couple of weeks and then receive an email Friday, inviting us to the championship. Should be fun to play with some friends and make some new ones.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Yay!!!! So excited to play with you guys again!

See you in St. Louis!

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Interesting, I bet Blizzard (188) was contacted on Friday as well. They are added and still awaiting a division like you were. I am curious with the timeline of how FIRST fills and posts divisions. Did your invite email come before Divisions were posted around 6PM Eastern? When did you confirm that you would be attending?

It would make sense for there to be one more add to even out the divisions. Although, history shows us that divisions assignment doesn't always make sense. For example in 2009, Newton had 88 teams while Galileo had 86 teams (the other 2 divisions had 87 teams) :confused: .

I don't understand why FIRST doesn't set the number of teams per division to a multiple of 3 (like 87 or 90) so there are no surrogate matches in qualification. Seeding at Championship is crazy enough without playing additional matches which don't count for some of the participants. There were still enough teams on the wait list and no clear limits (that I can see) to prevent 90 teams/division (and it would only take 3 more matches than 88 teams). Maybe that is something for the future when we are done this fields in the pit experiment :rolleyes:

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

We recieved the email from FIRST Friday afternoon (1:39pm) and was given until today at noon to accept the invitation. Once we ensured we had enough students interested, we responded to the email last night. It was a little fun to look at the divisions and think which one we would prefer to be in.

We've got a couple improvements to do, driver practice as well as prescouting and some new strategies to work on, but we're be ready to play Thursday.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Similar to what I did in previous years, I ran through 100 simulated qualification match schedules (all 147 matches, using the FIRST match generator). I used each team's highest opr at any event for their contribution to a match. I calculated the standings for each of the 100 simulated qualification schedules, and then looked at some statistics from the aggregate results.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Thanks for doing that Joe. It's always interesting to look at. In just a few day's we'll have the real stats. See everyone soon!

2011 Newton Division and MOEbile Pit!
 

To start I would like to congratulate all of the teams who are coming to nationals in St. Louis! All of your hard work and dedication is paying off!
Like any other competition there are some things that are bound to happen. Programs aren't going to run right, things will break, and countless of other things could go wrong (knock on wood!). But have no fear, MOEbile Pit will be there! For years MOE 365 has run a successful "mobile pit" which consists of a team of students that helps other teams with any problems that they encounter. But this year we are stepping into the 21st century with the help of Twitter! If at any time during the competition your team finds themselves in need of help, Tweet @MOEbilePit with your problem/request! This is an experimental way of communication through which other FIRST teams can connect to our MOEbile Pit when they need assistance! If you have any questions feel free to post them, or Tweet them to @MOEbilePit .
In the words of my greatest inspiration, Dean Kamen, "Good luck, and see you in St. Louis!"

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Hey Joe, how well has that piece of statistical fun correlated to actual division results in the past?

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

In 2008, when OPR was "good", 66% of team's ranks fell within the SD that I posted. That seems pretty good to me.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Joe,
Thanks for posting!

One question we always have at an event is "Can someone still seed after 1 loss? What about if we have 2 losses?" Can you share your data to show what the statistics say?

What does someone statistically need to do in Newton 2011 to stay in the top 8? In the top 4?

-John

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

That's a pretty reasonable correlation, I'd say.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Joe identifies the key factor which limits this year's statistical fun - whether OPR is a "good" predictor.

The sum of the maximum OPR of each simulated alliance may well be a good predictor of the winning alliance of a simulated match¹. But this year, especially with the exaggerated and quantized contribution of the minibot race, it surely can't be a good predictor of the score of that simulated match.
Teams 148, 1503 & 525 would be a very formidable alliance, but I don't expect even them to score 201 points (200.75 rounded) in a single match :)

Furthermore, with 88 teams playing 10 matches each, it is quite likely that two or more teams will finish qualifications with a 10-0-0 record, and several to tie with 9-1-0 records, so RS will matter for final seeding. To predict RS we need to predict the losing alliances score (ignoring penalties).

¹ I publicly commit to producing an analysis after the Championship looking at the performance of several predictive metrics. Look for a thread once I've recovered.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Just for fun, a test qualification schedule for Newton is posted on the FIRST website. Again this is just a TEST but it's interesting to look at.

http://www2.usfirst.org/2011comp/eve...edulequal.html

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

I wish that was the real one, as we would have a lot of fun matches:
with 148 against 217
with 3138 against 525
with 2415/234 against 27/1676
with 25
with 233 against 494
against 16

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

While my data has all that information, I'm not going to be able to extract it before the championship. I can say that no undefeated and untied team in the 3 alliance w-l-t era has ever seeded worse then 3rd. Given that most of those played 7 matches, it will only be better for the undefeated teams this year. There also has almost always been at least one undefeated team. Conversely, in the past, only 12 times out of 160 opportunities did a team with 2 losses seed in the top 8. I expect that number to be significantly different this year, however.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Is there any way to post the 100 individual seed lists? I could extract my own stats from that.

If not -- no worries. Something for next year maybe?

-John

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Here's how teams seeded with 10 wins, 9 wins, and 8 wins respectively.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Wow, looks like you had 1 run with 5 undefeated teams. If you're way ahead on tubes you may have to let the other alliance's minibot beat you or at least feed them some tubes to try and get some ranking points.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

So with two losses you have a chance at the top 8, but in most scenarios you'll find yourself juuuust out of range.

Got it.

-John

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

So if I'm looking at the data right there was one team who won 10 matches and ended up ranked fifth? Were there some regionals that played more than 10 matches?

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

This is a simulated match schedule. Or rather, 100 simulated match schedules were run and compared. Yes, there were regionals with more than 10 matches.

What you're seeing is that with 10 wins in a 10-match schedule, the lowest possible seed is 5th place.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Ooh! We're on Newton! Do we get figs?

Oughta be way fun. Come by 1676 and say hello, we'll be there from Wednesday as soon as they let us in, on. 'cept for the webhug and Bill's presentations of course.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

My dad had many versions of Fig Newton jokes this year. He seriously considered buying a box and giving it to the comp team so they could eat 2-4 Newtons before each match, because that's how many it takes to Trigger the Tower :D. Maybe it would have helped our first qual match at Philly because apparently we didn't have enough Newtons that match :rolleyes:

It is really too bad the Towers on your field will not Trigger because there is only 1 Newton ;)

OK, I'll stop now...

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

It's not so much that there are 10 matches, but 10 matches in a field of 88 teams. So 2 strong teams, A & B, will face each other in qualifying with a 30/87 or only 34% probability. With three strong teams it's about 29% likely that none of them will face another in qualification matches.
There is a good chance of multiple no-loss teams vying for the #1 spot, so there might be a slight edge to teams with weaker minibots :p

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Oh, man, thats bad.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Schedule is out (first one):
http://www2.usfirst.org/2011comp/events/Newton/schedulequal.html

I haven't looked at much but 1503 has no scheduler luck in the 5th match:
25 217 3284 vs 1503 3009 3622

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Can't wait until match 94. From Opr, it seems to be the super match.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

I was too lazy to code up a ranking calculator earlier in the season (and I have homework due in the morning), but the following is a matrix of the OPR predicted match (using the OPR Joe used) results. 1st column is match number, 2nd is red alliance, 3rd is blue, 4th is the difference.

Newton Schedule

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

I did the schedules for the teams of EWCP members and 1503 for Akash Rastogi and Nick Lawrence, and unfortunately 1503 got the worst draw, including playing against EWCP Team 2415. Using Ian's OPR for matches, 1503 only has an advantage in about half of their matches. Should be interesting to see how accurate those OPR numbers are.

First impressions say 148 walks through qualifying untouched with 1676, 2415, and 16 not too far behind, 1-2 losses each. Should be a great few days.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Match 39 is gonna break the game.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Here is my attempt at simulated rankings, using your match scores and an existing excel sheet of mine. I think I accounted for surrogate matches (3rd Match) correctly. Note the ThunderClucks win their surrogate match, but lose 2 others.

It begs the question again, why can't we go to 90 teams/division and eliminate these pointless surrogate matches?

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Match 87 :/ That's one I definitely want to watch...unfortunately by webcast, but what can you do?

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

I did the same thing but then looked at how many close matches there were (ie, within 25 points - for the minibot race.)

We (525) have 5 close matches, 148 has 2 and 1676 has 1. If we lose all 5 of the close matches we could drop below the 35th seed.

217, 234 and 3138 move to the top if they win the close matches rather than lose them.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Full rack!

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Match 39 ALMOST broke the game. its a shame 148 missed their ubertube, but kudos to the drivers of 148, 1503, and 1538 for their skills!

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Anyone calculate current OPRs from the matches so far?

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

78 looks to be in good shape, favored in 5 out of their 6 remaining matches, currently sitting at #1.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

78 is definitely one impressive robot.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Any one get video of this match?

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

I would love to see them team up with 88 TJ^2 again. They were very impressive in Boston with 1099 and would give any alliance a run for their money. Almost every match there were 3 robots heading to the wall with 3 ubertubes held high until they were hung and they just kept hanging tubes after until they successfully deployed their minibits.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

The Newton matches have been fun and challenging. Today it felt like the team was fighting a bit of a scheduling headwind and a couple of folks decided that it would be interesting to analyze the strength of schedule. Nothing complex just the sum of average scores of opponents – the average scores of alliance partners (not including the averages for the team's strength of schedule (SofS) being analyzed), for all of matches played by each team so far on Newton. The analysis is likely imperfect and we would love to see some better way to look at the balance of the strength of schedule. Just to make it interesting we added overall rank as of Friday night.

A couple of observations:
1. We expect that to some extent, with this metric, that exceptional teams can make their schedule look easy and that struggling teams can make their schedule harder
2. Significant jumps in the point totals are likely worth looking at


Rank Team SofS
84 2660 811.4
45 1100 786.9
37 2122 781.1
83 3344 777.9
78 79 758.5
74 2974 753.9
77 2197 746.7
44 3792 743.5
81 3278 736.5
87 1984 735.9
88 3748 735.2
73 3126 730.1
71 1108 716.9
55 2614 702.2
59 811 697.3
bbb 233 686.8
85 2080 684.1
58 980 680.9
61 3612 680.2
46 3103 677.4
49 3242 676.2
48 494 665.5
26 302 664.8
52 2815 650.9
25 836 645.3
23 525 636.6
62 2264 635.4
66 2655 631.0
65 3536 628.5
40 11 612.0
15 2415 611.3
76 1604 604.9
86 3472 603.6
42 1732 601.5
80 3358 601.3
7 27 598.4
6 1730 590.7
28 1710 587.6
18 3009 585.6
41 3521 577.0
69 236 576.7
67 2342 576.1
36 1764 575.0
43 3284 573.6
72 1165 568.4
47 179 559.4
82 2797 543.1
32 3622 539.6
75 3478 533.9
11 217 524.7
64 2437 524.6
27 2046 523.3
22 842 521.8
34 2662 513.0
57 2338 508.8
9 340 506.5
53 3880 499.5
30 88 495.7
60 2481 492.7
12 624 488.5
51 1801 486.1
56 1502 485.8
70 337 479.1
29 1511 478.9
63 1942 475.2
31 1503 473.6
79 447 467.8
17 1731 442.8
54 1195 441.4
38 2809 440.5
21 353 430.5
5 1538 430.0
68 3505 417.1
13 16 406.1
4 3138 405.9
50 3483 403.0
14 234 399.7
16 2848 389.3
35 228 387.1
20 3547 361.5
39 386 349.8
33 1829 340.8
3 1676 338.5
8 25 333.1
1 78 327.3
19 3456 235.5
10 2039 144.5
2 148 124.8

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

1. 3138, 233, 1801
2.1676, 2415, 1732
3. 148, 234, 2481
4. 78, 1538, 494
5. 16, 27, 842
6. 1730, 2122, 11
7. 217, 1503, 25
8. 3456, 525, 2046

Thoughts everybody?

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Quarters:
1 beats 8 in 3
7 beats 2 in 2
3 beats 6 in 2
5 beats 4 in 3

Semis:
3 beats 7 in 3
5 beats 1 in 2

Finals:
5 beats 3 in 3, this matchup would be very close

alliances 3, 5, and 7 are my favorites to win.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

I might be biased, but alliance #7 is looking pretty good. :cool:

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

and 7 beats 2 in 2? Seriously? Dunno about that. TBD.

Edit: Dangnabbit

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

What was that!!!!!!?

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Newton sent out a Team IFI team, an EWCP team, and repped NJ. I guess I'm satisfied with that.

Too bad 11's alliance had to play our friends on 1503 in the semifinals with a crippled robot, it definitely was not the fight 11, 1730, and 2122 wanted to put up, especially after taking down the force that is 148 and 234. I do, however, have to ask 148 what they based their final alliance selection on. I feel they could have easily made a stronger alliance with a different last pick.

Some great matches by 2415 as well, sorry to see you guys take an early exit at the Championships.

But hey, 1503 made it to Einstein and that's all I care about. :)

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

I actually didn't see the quarterfinal matches as they were right after our matches, but during qualifications 2481 had a fast consistent minibot. In 2481's match with 148 earlier, they pushed tubes towards the rack for 148 to score. We worked with 2481 for a match at Wisconsin and they are a smart, organized team that gets strategy. So, I understand the pick, but I'm not sure if they would have been my top pick at that point.


Although it was an early exit for 1732, I couldn't be happier with how we preformed. Signing up for the Championship 10 days before it started, having only a couple meetings to improve the robot, and only 1 day to practice with our entirely new driveteam (other than field coach), my goal was just to be playing Saturday afternoon, which we did. Thanks again to 1676 for the selection and 2415 for being a great alliance partner. Its rare to be the #2 seed and trying to figure out a way to slow down a stronger scoring #7 alliance, but we gave a good run at it.

Congrats to 217, 1503 and 25 on the Divison title.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Team 2046 Bear Metal had a great time and I'd like to personally thank our alliance partners 525 and 3456. We put up a very good fight but couldn't pull out a victory over the number one seeded alliance.

It was very interesting to see the final rankings and alliance selections as the depth of our division divided the truly powerhouse teams. It made for quite a challenging event.

I wonder if anyone has some archived match footage available? I haven't been able to find anything yet.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Statistically the easiest schedule in the division!
You won't hear any of us complaining. We'll take some good luck from the scheduling gods any day of the week (and twice on Saturdays).

-John

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

You don't have to play against the best team if you are the best team! :cool:

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Nicely said :)

We were living in fear of 148 being able to set up a juggernaut, so were a bit relieved to see the great leveling due to the clash of the titans on Saturday morning.

The strength of Newton and the randomness of the qualification schedule were highly effective at splitting the powerhouses. It seems that it wasn't so on some of other fields.


Yep - the Tators captured all of the Newton and Einstein field video. Right now that video is somewhere between Kansas and Idaho - we will try to send it along to the blue alliance this week and post it on our web site, but we are currently a little strung out.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Team 25 (and i) WOULD LIKE TO THANK OUR PARTNERS from teams 217 and 1503 for teaming with us and giving the Newton Division a series of rounds that resulted in a great success for us. By the end of the rounds we were getting pretty banged up but playing a little defense is something Raider Robotix is not stranger to.

As Paul stated right after the picking "you guys really sucked this morning". I hope we gave the alliance an afternoon that was more memorable.

Overall the Newton Division was a fun group with some great competition. Thanks to all the Newton teams for making the event a great one.

WC :cool:

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

217 - The quality of work and communication exhibited by your team throughout the elimination is the reason why you have been successful for so many years. Thank you for picking us. It was an honor to work with you.

1503 - From one of our strategy/scouting sessions.. "I wouldn't mind being partnered with 1503.. that would be fun". I'm glad it came true. You played very well and we were glad to be partnered with you.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

This was a great division to play in. While it was a bit of a bummer that we weren't picked, the competition was great to watch. Those alliances were intense. I definitely spent most of my time over at the Newton field, and not just because a friend asked me to photograph his team.

It was a great performance by the winning alliance. Congrats to 1503, 217, and 25! It seems 1503 was quite excited for their first trip to Einstein- and I was excited for them!

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Team 3456 was glad to have you! It was definitely a tough match, but I feel we did outstanding. Together we held our own against an alliance that would make it to finals. Simply being in an alliance captain position was incredible for our rookie team, and I'm glad we were able to end up with some awesome alliance partners!

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Big thanks to teams 1538 and 494 for being our elimination round alliance partners. 1538 was one of the top teams all weekend and 494 was fantastic as a feeder. It's too bad we couldn't have gone a bit further...what an exciting group to watch! A bit disappointing we threw those drive chains in the second semi-final match...and that the towers weren't up to snuff to registering those minibots. But we all had fun and everyone LOVED the cow bells (thanks 1538!!!) Had a great time in St. Louis and we hope to make it back again next year.

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

FedEx delivered our robot today at about 2:30. We had a demo planned at a local elementary school fair this evening so it was great to get it back so quickly. We were going to run our Breakaway robot but it was a real treat to be able to run the Logomotion bot. Looks like the off season is underway already...

Re: 2011 Newton Division
 

Oh man we were... especially after having a complete failure of a season last year...

-Nick