This is a very interesting strategic analysis. I agree with most parts but some are up for discussion I think. Looking at some of your underlaying principles...
1. Focusing on defense is an INFERIOR strategy
This is true to an extent, but I really REALLY don't agree with the logic behind "If we can't play offense well we can always play defense" I know that if I designed a robot to play defense it will do it better then your offensive robot that "can" play defense. Look at this thread..
http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...threadid=89352
That robot has a great chance to shut down any great offense robot. I don't think you can say that focusing on defense is inferior, if you design a robot to play defense and you prevent your offensive juggernaut from even getting to the scoring rack who has the better strategy?
2. One minibot will not perform significantly better or worse than another
I think you will be surprised at competition. I think there will be several average minibots that don't perform significantly better then the others, but there will be one or two that blows everyone else away. This remains to be seen.
3. Teams have the greatest opportunity to affect the outcome of the match if they focus on hanging game pieces.
This is another tough call IMO. I think a great defensive robot, or better yet a defensive ALLIANCE that completely barricades the scoring zone for the opposing alliance but has 2 amazing minibots can eliminate your offensive alliance without scoring a single tube.
I think there will be teams playing a lot of defense at regionals that will give the pure scorers a run for their money. I just watched about 10 match videos from 2007, unless teams across the board improve their manipulators, a couple good hits from an opposing alliance robot would cause the robot to drop their tube. Make a team drop their tube enough and they will realize it's easier to stop another team from scoring a tube then it is for them to score one themselves. By Saturday more teams are playing defense and it's getting harder to score.
This is what makes strategy in FIRST so fun IMO. Your strategic analysis might be spot on, or it may not be. After regionals start and you see how the game is being played, you watch it evolve over the weeks and at Championship everyone knows their strategy and the games begin.
Best of luck this season.