[SteveGPage]

Originally Posted by lineskier

Basically I only look at qualification matches, and to account for teams playing in different # of matches, I take the number of matches of the team your looking at -1 and set that as the max # of matches. Then I go through all the teams you play with. and calculate their total score over those n matches. based on this I get a total score for the alliance at that event, and then based on each teams ratio of that total score I find their contribution to that match. Averaging a team's contribution to each match, I estimate their expected contribution to the next match.

I also do the same for the opposite alliance, to calculate the teams expected spread and points allowed

Looks good! I'll take a look at this. Thanks!