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Unread 22-02-2011, 11:11
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Re: toughest regional in 2011?

Looking at the factors that could possibly rank/determine regional performance... (just for fun & in NO particular order)

1. Regional Rank (especially 1-10)
It often takes some skill/strategy to get to the top, I think teams that are consistently there get the most weight... a team that is "chance carried" there by alliance partners will not get as much weight as those that make it there on their own consistently.

2. Robot Blue Banners (Regional Champion & Finalist)
Winning says a fair amount. Even if you are a third pick, you in theory learn a thing or two from your alliance partners.

3. Selection Order
I would give more weight to the teams selected 2nd or 3rd (etc) than the teams actually ranked in 2nd or 3rd... This is thrown off a bit by teams that end up in the top 10 that don't have good alliance selection lists, but often the top 8 selected teams are fairly predictable with a good list.

4. Stability
More weight should be given to recent years than past years. Plenty of teams lose critical mentors, sponsors, etc and can "fall" in the ranks due to lack of structure or support. I think this is kind of what the BBQ/SAUCE does. You could take it a step further and say the last 3 years get highest weight, up to six years next, all past next...?

5. Win-Loss Record
This is probably the lowest of my weights, but there is something to teams that "know how to win". But then again its very heavily dependent on your partners & opponents, so its not as much of a predictor. And 2010 week 1 would have to be thrown out of this since winning didnt really "matter" to all teams. But it still could be a criteria

6. Rookie Startup
This is probably the hardest to figure into the numbers, but you can sometimes tell the caliber of the Rookie team by where it came from... the FRC team that is mentoring it, or the "family tree" if you will. 1511 stood a pretty good chance because it had 7 years of FIRST family tree driving it... plus was in a region with teams like 340, 191 & 1126 and could learn from them (just as an example ). But in general, it would probably be easiest to just omit rookies from the factoring.

I'm not exactly sure how to gather all of this data, or even exactly how to rank all of these against eachother, but I would bet with all of these metrics we could come "closer" to predicting

I didn't factor Chairmans or EI in, as I think the "awards" are a whole different "game", and that there is much less of a correlation between winning CA/EI and winning the robot part of the competition So in that case I sort of disagree with the BBQ/SAUCE method.

Ehh just some ideas to throw on the pile
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