Quote:
Originally Posted by IKE
Soooo, maybe MSC will not be more competitive than the divisions this year. I for one am extremely excited about this. One of the more interesting things we learned at MSC is that if you haev an alliance capable of putting up over 100 points, you stand a really good chance of taking your match.
Going by the data:
Galileo has the highest probability of the #1 alliance sweeping their way through (but there are 3 players wanting to be in that tango).
Newton will likely have the most "seasoned" alliance on Einstein. There will likely be at least 4 incredibly strong alliances in that division battling it out for the spot of Einstein. They are also the most likely to ahve a very strong 3rd (look in the 20-26 range).
Curie will also have extremely strong 3rd picks, but it softens a bit quicker than Newton, thus the winner of that division won't have the practice that Newton will.
Archimedes... the bad news is that according to the data... we are quite a bit softer than the rest. The good news? We are strong enough. Using my team and 67 as an example. I don't think you need OPRs in the 70s to make a winning alliance. 70+70+30 does not equal 170 pts in this game. If your alliance has the ability to get between 100-120 points, you have a decent chance of going all the way.
For the event as a whole:
The elims will be even better than MSC. The top 30 or so are so strong in all of the divisions (these are the teams likely to make up your 24 elim teams). this is extremely exciting. Qualifying will have a lot more variety. There are quite a few softer teams coming to the world Championship. Many of them may have a 2-3 lb "secret weapon" that they are bringing along, so expect quite a few teams to bubble up into that 30-40ish OPR range.
I do predict that 3/4 #1 Alliance captains will have double autonomous capability.
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I agree with others who posted on why the MSC teams have lower numbers after MSC. This is especially true because I was using weighed average when Week 6 event has more weight than earlier weeks. It has to do with the game itself.
Last year, there was no limit on total points because the soccer balls get recycled onto the field. That's why the a team's OPR did not "suffer" because everybody gets better. However this year, there is a maximum how many points an alliance can score. When other teams start to contribute more instead of only 1 team like in earlier weeks, the OPR numbers get spread out.
I think Michigan teams will do well at the Championship. Other high OPR teams outside of Michigan will find out at the Championship that they are not the only one who can score 6 tubes and have a <2 seconds minibot.
The other thing about the minibot, at the regional/district in earlier weeks, it is seldom to have 3 alliance partners who all have a minibot to deploy. Sometimes there is only one team. So if you have a minibot, you got to deploy it every time and so every time you are on the field, you contribute a lot of points. However at MSC, almost everybody has a minibot and only two got to score. Although OPR does not care which two teams score it, it gives credit to the whole alliance. However the score is not higher when your team is there anymore because of your minibot. Hence every team get less OPR points from the minibot. For those who did the study by separating out the minibot OPR, it will be very clear.