Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Ross
Similar to what I did in previous years, I ran through 100 simulated qualification match schedules (all 147 matches, using the FIRST match generator). I used each team's highest opr at any event for their contribution to a match. I calculated the standings for each of the 100 simulated qualification schedules, and then looked at some statistics from the aggregate results.
Code:
Team OPR Avg Rnk Med Rnk Mod Rnk SD Rnk Max Rnk Min Rnk #1 seed Top 8 Avg QP Med QP Mode QP StdevQP Max QP Min QP
148 71.24 7.13 4.5 2 7.8 42 1 15 76 17.04 18 18 2.41 20 10
1503 65.43 8.6 6 3 7.7 36 1 14 64 16.49 16.5 18 2.38 20 10
525 64.08 9.6 7.5 2 8.3 37 1 9 55 16.27 16 16 2.46 20 10
217 61.01 11.09 10 2 8.8 54 1 7 44 15.73 16 16 2.39 20 8
234 58.70 9.68 7 6 8.1 38 1 8 58 16.31 16 18 2.30 20 11
2415 57.92 11.26 10.5 1 8.0 37 1 10 43 15.8 16 16 2.39 20 10
25 57.04 12.68 10 7 9.2 39 1 5 43 15.4 16 16 2.54 20 10
1538 55.88 10.46 8 4 9.2 48 1 5 54 16.06 16 18 2.49 20 8
1730 54.08 14.78 12.5 4 10.1 41 1 2 33 14.96 14.5 14 2.62 20 10
11 48.94 17.28 16 12 11.2 50 1 5 26 14.43 14 14 2.61 20 8
2122 47.49 18.78 15.5 5 13.7 57 1 4 27 14.29 14 14 3.08 20 8
1676 46.38 19.72 17 14 14.1 65 1 2 23 14.02 14 14 3.06 20 6
27 46.29 22.02 20 9 14.4 65 1 2 17 13.56 14 14 3.16 20 6
3138 45.36 21.01 21 22 11.4 53 1 2 15 13.69 14 12 2.57 20 8
624 45.21 21.58 18.5 11 13.3 52 2 0 20 13.62 14 16 2.86 20 8
78 43.85 21.82 19 10 13.7 64 2 0 16 13.49 14 14 2.81 18 6
88 42.90 22.14 17 14 15.9 68 1 3 17 13.55 14 16 3.33 20 6
16 41.77 23.23 19 17 15.0 62 1 2 14 13.37 14 14 3.11 20 6
3284 41.26 22.64 20 26 13.9 69 2 0 11 13.45 14 14 2.83 20 6
1732 41.15 22.11 19 19 14.9 77 2 0 16 13.54 14 14 2.94 20 4
179 40.88 22.65 19 11 15.5 78 3 0 13 13.46 14 14 3.07 20 4
233 40.32 23.07 19 4 16.8 81 1 2 17 13.45 14 14 3.31 20 5
2848 40.01 24.77 22 20 13.8 53 2 0 12 12.92 14 14 2.89 20 8
836 39.89 25.44 22 28 15.8 73 1 1 12 12.93 14 14 3.06 19 5
494 39.87 26.31 25 23 14.6 66 2 0 13 12.81 12 12 3.07 20 6
340 36.95 28.87 24.5 21 16.8 68 2 0 8 12.35 12 12 3.16 18 6
337 35.40 28.15 27 29 13.7 77 1 1 4 12.39 12 12 2.67 20 4
1731 35.03 29.15 28 40 15.1 66 1 1 9 12.24 12 12 3.00 20 6
3547 33.77 28.98 26 21 15.2 78 4 0 3 12.16 12 12 2.86 18 4
302 31.40 33.64 32 25 13.6 66 6 0 3 11.41 12 12 2.43 18 6
2046 28.17 40.58 41 41 16.0 80 12 0 0 10.29 10 10 2.76 16 4
2481 28.08 40.92 39.5 27 20.1 86 2 0 6 10.23 10 10 3.61 20 2
2809 27.79 37.71 35 30 17.5 76 6 0 2 10.82 12 12 3.11 18 4
2338 27.62 38.01 35.5 29 17.6 76 2 0 3 10.7 11.5 12 3.08 18 4
3009 26.11 40.16 38.5 32 17.3 86 3 0 4 10.45 10 8 3.22 18 2
1100 25.93 40.06 41 51 17.5 84 5 0 2 10.48 10 8 3.13 18 3
842 25.14 38.93 39 39 17.0 80 5 0 2 10.61 10 10 2.98 18 4
386 24.47 43.77 43.5 53 18.5 85 9 0 0 9.79 10 8 3.20 16 2
1108 23.34 41.85 40.5 41 16.4 84 10 0 0 10.13 10 10 2.89 16 2
3483 22.56 43.02 41.5 34 18.1 83 7 0 1 10 10 12 3.31 18 4
811 21.83 44.79 44 44 17.3 84 6 0 1 9.71 10 10 2.90 18 2
1511 21.49 45 45 40 17.7 87 14 0 0 9.72 10 8 3.04 16 0
1710 21.07 47.45 48.5 54 18.2 83 8 0 1 9.27 8.5 8 3.06 16 2
3456 19.80 45.14 45 54 18.6 83 4 0 2 9.82 10 8 3.18 18 4
2614 19.70 44.54 42 41 18.6 82 5 0 1 9.72 10 10 3.34 18 2
447 17.94 46.86 46.5 31 18.0 86 7 0 3 9.42 10 10 3.17 18 2
3536 15.47 54.76 56.5 68 17.5 85 23 0 0 8.32 8 6 2.96 14 2
228 15.06 52.46 54 46 19.6 88 5 0 1 8.65 8 8 3.42 18 0
3103 14.82 51.74 52.5 58 18.0 86 5 0 2 8.74 8 8 3.13 18 2
3344 14.52 51.64 54 54 18.4 84 13 0 0 8.7 8 8 3.15 16 2
980 14.12 50.82 51 49 18.7 87 4 0 1 8.83 8 8 3.26 18 2
236 14.04 53.4 54.5 53 17.4 86 13 0 0 8.41 8 8 2.97 16 2
3792 13.95 54.35 54 44 18.0 87 9 0 0 8.26 8 6 3.14 18 2
79 13.31 55 55 59 17.5 87 6 0 1 8.17 8 8 3.10 18 0
2039 13.03 52.27 51.5 47 17.8 85 4 0 1 8.67 8 10 3.10 18 2
2437 12.45 57.58 57.5 54 16.1 87 11 0 0 7.88 8 6 2.69 16 2
1764 11.31 59.11 60.5 68 14.1 87 13 0 0 7.62 8 8 2.41 15 2
1604 8.83 59.74 62 56 17.3 87 9 0 0 7.68 8 8 2.98 16 2
2797 8.27 57.82 59.5 73 17.6 88 16 0 0 7.92 8 8 3.11 16 0
2974 7.55 60.54 65 72 17.9 88 11 0 0 7.4 7.5 6 3.16 16 0
3880 6.48 63.27 67 67 16.6 88 19 0 0 7 6 6 2.88 16 0
2815 5.09 61.6 62 61 15.6 88 22 0 0 7.42 8 8 2.71 14 2
2264 4.89 65.21 68 46 15.6 87 28 0 0 6.84 6 6 2.69 12 2
1942 4.81 61.37 61 58 15.7 88 24 0 0 7.33 8 8 2.82 14 0
3358 4.64 65.18 68.5 47 16.7 87 23 0 0 6.65 6 8 3.03 14 2
3612 4.45 61.92 62 88 18.0 88 13 0 0 7.18 8 8 3.30 16 0
1502 4.28 61.22 64 72 16.8 87 15 0 0 7.42 8 6 2.98 16 0
3242 3.77 66.78 71 83 16.1 88 22 0 0 6.57 6 6 2.83 13 2
2342 3.62 64.81 70 70 15.7 88 21 0 0 6.91 6 6 2.78 14 2
3748 3.21 63.91 67 72 15.8 88 23 0 0 7.05 6 6 2.69 14 0
2662 3.20 62.01 63 76 16.8 87 24 0 0 7.36 8 8 2.97 14 2
2655 3.16 68.3 70.5 82 14.4 88 29 0 0 6.29 6 6 2.61 13 0
3622 2.98 67.7 71 71 14.9 88 29 0 0 6.35 6 6 2.63 12 0
1984 2.84 66.52 69 60 15.0 88 28 0 0 6.52 6 6 2.79 12 0
2197 2.66 62.52 65.5 82 17.6 88 18 0 0 7.16 7 6 3.20 14 0
3126 2.50 68.47 70.5 86 15.0 88 36 0 0 6.1 6 6 2.90 12 0
3478 1.33 68.93 72 86 15.3 88 31 0 0 6.06 6 8 2.96 12 0
2080 0.56 65.71 71 71 17.9 88 13 0 0 6.66 6 6 3.23 16 0
353 0.37 68.54 73 61 15.0 87 31 0 0 6.26 6 6 2.78 12 2
1829 -0.01 69.79 74 86 15.1 88 21 0 0 6.12 6 6 2.92 14 0
3521 -0.53 71.66 74 85 13.0 88 35 0 0 5.74 6 6 2.56 12 0
1165 -0.59 68.66 73.5 84 17.3 88 29 0 0 6.01 6 4 3.23 12 0
1801 -1.16 69.05 72.5 79 15.9 88 23 0 0 6.18 6 6 2.94 14 0
3278 -1.98 70.25 73 85 14.2 88 32 0 0 5.96 6 4 2.69 12 0
3505 -2.07 70.45 74.5 88 14.7 88 29 0 0 6 6 6 2.86 12 0
2660 -2.31 69.74 74 88 15.3 88 32 0 0 5.92 6 6 2.98 12 0
1195 -2.42 69.79 75 88 15.6 88 23 0 0 6.03 6 4 2.93 14 0
3472 -5.76 73.98 76.5 88 13.4 88 39 0 0 5.31 5.5 4 2.80 12 0
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Joe,
Thanks for posting!
One question we always have at an event is "Can someone still seed after 1 loss? What about if we have 2 losses?" Can you share your data to show what the statistics say?
What does someone statistically need to do in Newton 2011 to stay in the top 8? In the top 4?
-John