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Unread 19-12-2011, 16:26
Brandon Holley's Avatar
Brandon Holley Brandon Holley is offline
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FRC #0125 (NU-TRONs, Team #11 Alumni (GO MORT))
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Re: pic: Alliance Scores Over the 2011 FRC Season

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ian Curtis View Post
As an interesting side note, it looks like in 2011 OPR did a suprisingly good job at predicting scores of the top 50% of the field, and was less good with the bottom 50% of the field.
Very interesting analysis, well done.

Hypothesis for the poor prediction of the lower 50%:

-It's mainly sig figs. You can see this in your "Actual Scores" dotplot; the minibot scoring put a dip in values in the mid range. Scores are not evenly distributed throughout the entire range (0~100), because the minibots caused wild swings in scores. If you scored at all with a minibot, you were swinging your score upward by a large %.

I would be interested just to see what % of scores were under 14, and what % of scores are above 40. If the percentage is similar, it helps my hypothesis. Basically what I am saying is that if a large number of scores are within a limited range of data (0-14) it will be more difficult to properly predict team order. With the scores in the higher range, you have more values at your disposal (40-100) so placing teams in that range becomes simpler.

Does that make sense?

-Brando
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