Quote:
Originally Posted by Ian Curtis
Since I assume 33 has pretty decent points per robot per match data, have you ever matched up the OPR with the actual points a robot is worth per match? Can you make any comments as to how good that fit is?
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We do a comparison at the events we are at to see how good of an indicator OPR is. We don't run stats on it, but mostly do visual checks to see if we are missing something or to look for trends. This probably would be a good thing to run stats on though...
Like Joe Ross said, 2008 correlated incredilby well. Especially if you used the top 2 offensive teams OPR. Unfortunately, negative OPRs also correlated well that year.*
2009 didn't work well at all. Over 50% of moonrocks were scored by humans, and many teams rotated the human player position.
2010 was pretty good. With good teams though, 2+2+2 =8 at MSC, the scores inflated drastically as teams could do zone play because there were good teams that could pick up the slack. 2010 also had some unique strategies that would underpredict certain teams. 67, 254, and 1114 were so good that even though OPR had them at 8-10, they would frequnetly score that many points, plus attempt a couple of points for the other teams! In reality, in a close match, those guys could do 10-12. OPR would often underpredict good alliances that year. Our qualifying match against 254 had an OPR predictor of I believe 16 to 12. The actual match turned out to be 20 to 18 (still one of my favorite FRC qualifying matches even though we lost).
2011 was interesting. OPR ws a reasonable predictor, but due to digressive scoring, it had the opposite effect as 2010 had. In 2011, 50+60+45 = 120-130 was not uncommon. There wasn't enough room for 3 good robots to put up a good score, and there were only 2 minibot poles.
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*One partner in 2008 had a 6WD with omnis on the corners. Every lap the driver would inadvertently spin the wrong way when changes direction while doing a lap and would spin back over the line and get a penalty. I convinced a the team to zip-tie grip-mat to their omni wheels for a our match, and they only got 1 penalty that match.
Examples like this are where scouting can pay dividends. Often a team with a negative OPR is either breaking a rule or driving poorly. If you can observe their issue, and point it out to them, you can frequently get a few more points, ah er, not loose a few points that you likely would have without the comments. I was suprised that there were not more DQs in 2011 with all the red-card opportunities the GDC had in the rules.