Congrats 1089 and all teams with 56 or more points. You have mathematically clinched a berth in the MAR Championship, if my calculations are correct. Feel free to check my calculations in the attached spreadsheet (modified from the official Week 4 spreadsheet, Thanks MAR).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Siri
Shouldn't there be a further method of determining the cutoff? For instance, 1640 is currently sitting at 28 (assuming worst case that the MO Chairman's winner is ranked under us). This means, I think, that 25 teams (minimum) need to move above us, putting us at 53. The least number of points this requires is 827, under the overall point remainder of 987. Have I done this correctly?
However, this leapfrogging (at its minimum) requires 10 teams to earn 40 or more points at Mount Olive and another 8 to earn 30 or more (2 in the 20s, and 5 in the 10s). There should be some mathematical limit to the points one team can acquire, and another limit to the number of teams who can earn, say, 40 points.
I'm working on figuring this out. (Thought I had it there for a while...) Is this what you're doing in columns Q-AB?
|
Siri, most of what you said sounds right, although I havent checked it against the old unofficial numbers because I have new official ones.
The good news is that 1640 is the top team on the bubble with 55 pts. It would take at least 915 of the 987 available pts allocated to the 27 Mt Olive teams directly below you to possibly force you out on tiebreakers. While I still believe this is theoretically possible when it comes to point combinations, it pretty much requires the alliance picking and semi finals to be dominated by teams currently ranked 66 and below (highly unlikely). Check out column X in the new spreadsheet to see the specifics. The easier way to think about is: you just need the 4 Mt. Olive powerhouse teams above you (already clinched) to stockpile at least 73 pts (pretty safe assumption).
To all those teams on the Bubble, my prediction for the cutoff is 44 pts. This is based on another prediction that the top 11 currently ranked Mt Olive teams and MORT (Autobid) will earn over 500 of the 987 pts and another Chairmans AutoBid (Note: I don't know who is submitting there).
It should be a very exciting weekend. I am sure some Bubble teams will tune into the webcast root for MORT, The high ranked teams and low ranked teams in every match to improve their chances against the other Bubble teams.