Quote:
Originally Posted by Jacob Plicque
Ed,
I have noticed some major exceptions this year in OPR predictions for the playoffs. Orlando, Oregon, Traverse, Montreal, and several other regional OPR predictions are not correlating with the actual winners as in the past. Statistics for OPR are off. Do you see any other predictors that improve the results?
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I did not get a chance to analyse the data extensively this year. Overall I think OPR still represent the strength of each team fairly well. Keep in mind that the combined OPR to predict outcome has only been around 70-75% in the past few years. In most cases this year, it was still correct most of the time. The examples you gave were exceptions. Perhaps it was because of triple balance at the end since those extra 20 points were not available during qualifying rounds and therefore not represented in the OPR numbers.
When I am in St. Louis and get bored, I will look into it in more details. Will I see you there this year?