Thread: Newton 2012!
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Unread 21-04-2012, 00:20
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Re: Newton 2012!

Similar to what I did in previous years, I ran through 200 simulated qualification match schedules (with 9 matches per team, using the FIRST match generator).

I used each team's highest adjusted opr at any event to choose that team's "best event". Then, for that event, I used their unadjusted OPR for their contribution to a match. I also used the hybrid OPR, bridge OPR, teleop OPR to help calculate the standings. For the co-op bridge, I summed the co-op OPR for all 6 robots in the match and compared that to a threshold. When back-testing against regionals, if the threshold was chosen to be close to the number of actual co-ops at the regional, it had a relatively high correlation to the actual results on the co-op bridge. Almost all regionals had a correlation co-efficient of between 0.6 and 0.85. However, at the Michigan State Championship, the correlation coefficient was only 0.3. I believe this is because almost all of the robots there were able to balance so the balances that didn't happen weren't be cause of the robots, but because of luck. I used this method for calculating the co-ops, trying to get a co-op percent of around 60% (higher then most regionals, but lower then MSC). Overall, this isn't a very good way to do it, as it punishes teams at early regionals and regionals where teams did not co-op that much. However, it's included to help simulate the randomness of the rankings this year. All OPR data is from Ed Law's spreadsheet.

I calculated the results for each of the 200 simulated qualification schedules, and then looked at some statistics from the aggregate results.

Since the standings are much more complicated this year, and the co-op bridge is so important, and there isn't a very good way to simulate it, I looked at both the ranks, the number of qualification points, and the number of wins.

Everyone should attend Karthik's presentation at the championships where he covers "Why 'OPR' is a flawed indicator in Rebound Rumble".

The following were the values that were used in the simulation
Code:
Team 	OPR	Teleop	Hybrid	Bridge	Coop
469	42.33	23.31	8.33	10.69	0.98
1717	40.83	26.85	14.19	-0.60	0.64
548	32.99	20.58	7.62	4.78	0.87
1983	32.69	17.72	9.23	5.61	0.60
330	30.11	14.90	10.96	4.20	0.65
365	29.98	11.17	11.24	7.58	0.73
118	29.80	15.84	9.79	4.46	0.81
842	29.13	21.23	5.13	2.53	0.27
2122	27.59	12.00	7.82	4.21	0.60
111	27.42	15.30	8.80	3.67	0.28
1629	25.78	10.36	10.21	5.41	0.38
1023	25.02	14.22	8.51	3.52	0.50
488	24.31	13.29	7.61	3.62	0.39
222	22.71	9.72	6.58	6.36	0.29
2067	22.50	7.79	9.83	4.85	0.30
1662	22.10	13.83	3.32	4.76	0.51
1540	22.05	11.50	6.12	4.42	0.80
610	21.94	7.52	9.97	4.44	0.35
340	21.85	9.78	7.70	4.11	0.54
3018	21.56	10.78	6.67	4.26	0.56
175	21.08	4.69	6.78	9.66	0.67
107	18.38	6.30	7.95	4.14	0.31
68	17.72	5.86	5.72	6.14	0.32
3357	17.57	8.40	6.30	2.83	0.25
2834	17.54	13.67	4.62	-0.74	0.67
1241	17.37	7.95	6.19	4.04	0.33
4294	17.14	6.86	4.11	6.16	0.96
1635	16.78	-2.04	5.01	10.41	0.64
2468	16.31	9.44	0.41	6.98	0.19
79	15.54	1.95	6.17	8.06	0.75
3930	15.46	4.70	4.86	5.90	0.75
181	15.15	2.78	8.96	3.16	0.72
3245	15.01	4.31	5.78	4.69	0.46
3630	14.85	2.79	6.85	5.19	0.42
329	14.61	5.75	6.45	2.69	0.50
2471	14.45	5.50	5.73	3.26	0.47
840	14.29	2.80	7.98	4.18	0.32
639	14.11	0.59	6.74	6.77	0.73
11	14.00	2.54	9.89	1.58	0.78
191	13.96	7.11	3.60	3.54	0.26
3310	13.85	4.65	8.75	0.64	0.41
816	13.85	3.61	6.23	4.01	0.54
3937	13.69	2.05	7.28	1.26	0.27
2062	13.61	-0.05	9.89	3.77	0.34
2936	13.38	5.39	6.72	1.64	0.93
271	13.09	4.47	3.47	6.65	-0.40
3230	12.89	4.96	4.40	3.89	0.41
115	12.33	6.29	2.12	3.96	0.83
714	12.13	4.41	5.14	2.73	0.69
1640	12.08	2.64	7.60	1.84	0.39
1519	11.28	3.96	1.88	5.58	1.08
555	10.98	5.33	0.61	5.12	0.13
4089	10.96	2.73	3.82	4.73	0.42
2640	10.32	1.16	5.60	3.81	0.60
360	10.23	2.39	2.86	4.97	0.22
3990	10.22	2.71	4.59	2.92	-0.03
3504	9.87	5.49	0.85	3.97	-0.33
435	9.67	2.57	2.09	4.75	0.03
4183	9.16	4.03	5.86	-0.71	-0.08
1209	9.08	6.64	1.16	1.29	-0.17
2194	9.04	3.63	3.11	2.30	0.15
2705	8.79	2.86	6.85	-1.06	0.13
1772	8.68	1.47	3.44	3.67	0.14
2059	8.36	2.55	4.14	1.82	0.33
1622	8.06	9.01	0.51	-0.93	0.33
1506	8.05	3.30	0.35	3.84	0.19
4086	7.98	3.73	3.18	1.54	0.62
1219	6.86	-0.03	0.78	5.50	0.32
1937	6.80	1.96	2.80	1.99	0.15
4055	6.72	1.01	2.92	3.10	1.21
4021	6.48	3.14	2.88	0.42	-0.15
3627	6.36	1.02	2.77	2.44	0.27
378	6.04	-0.37	3.02	3.55	0.09
3512	5.93	1.37	3.11	1.64	0.09
41	5.84	2.37	2.68	1.01	0.21
1111	5.67	-0.83	1.99	3.80	0.16
86	5.61	1.73	2.45	1.58	0.49
4320	5.38	-1.06	4.53	1.90	0.16
375	5.30	4.29	1.10	-0.09	0.44
3255	5.30	2.61	-0.23	3.69	0.06
2460	5.23	4.59	1.74	-1.08	0.01
2200	5.18	1.73	0.53	2.73	0.13
4043	5.01	0.73	4.01	0.27	-0.08
4122	4.60	0.53	0.59	3.89	0.76
1126	4.43	3.46	2.27	-1.11	0.11
3566	4.38	2.43	-0.44	3.02	0.23
3083	4.05	4.84	-2.78	1.89	0.06
4188	3.90	1.62	-0.06	2.50	0.01
1178	3.72	1.77	4.53	-2.47	0.46
45	3.09	-1.05	3.62	0.27	0.87
4228	3.08	0.76	-2.44	4.75	0.14
1329	2.43	-0.15	-1.61	4.62	0.50
457	2.06	0.92	-1.50	3.31	-0.08
3176	1.68	3.78	0.01	-2.11	0.28
611	1.05	0.25	1.03	-0.21	-0.23
2902	0.76	-0.64	1.31	0.15	0.01
2574	0.67	1.00	0.94	-1.27	0.45
4379	0.35	0.99	-0.52	-0.65	0.18
2517	0.16	1.81	-0.76	-0.87	0.72
4262	-0.86	0.63	-1.04	-0.28	-0.22
Seeds:
Code:
	avg	med	mode	min	max	stdev	top8	#1
469	3.45	3	1	1	16	2.97	184	59
1717	5.63	4	1	1	32	6.04	161	39
548	6.88	5	2	1	32	5.81	141	21
1983	12.21	9.5	6	1	57	9.87	91	8
330	11.24	9	2	1	47	9.11	99	7
365	11.49	9	5	1	41	8.97	96	9
118	8.86	6	1	1	38	8.00	124	26
842	27.23	26	17	1	65	14.25	14	1
2122	16.83	14	4	1	56	11.91	61	1
111	28.39	25	22	2	86	16.67	16	0
1629	24.81	22	4	1	80	16.83	38	1
1023	20.50	18	6	1	73	14.27	50	2
488	26.44	24	18	1	84	16.06	20	2
222	33.86	32	35	3	87	18.97	14	0
2067	32.88	29	22	1	86	18.91	8	1
1662	27.83	26.5	28	2	71	16.15	17	0
1540	17.20	15	9	1	63	12.02	54	5
610	32.19	31	22	2	88	17.08	13	0
340	25.04	23	9	1	76	14.45	18	1
3018	24.41	21	20	1	82	15.23	31	1
175	21.45	18	16	1	72	14.27	40	2
107	40.54	40	43	9	90	17.44	0	0
68	41.16	39	31	2	88	20.34	9	0
3357	44.83	45	29	7	93	19.07	1	0
2834	27.62	25	16	2	78	16.73	18	0
1241	41.55	40	23	4	96	18.98	3	0
4294	21.78	19	5	1	70	13.73	36	5
1635	31.50	30.5	11	1	82	17.43	11	1
2468	55.86	56	51	11	97	19.45	0	0
79	28.86	27	35	1	82	16.01	15	2
3930	30.81	28.5	22	2	82	17.28	15	0
181	26.49	24	10	2	67	15.49	27	0
3245	38.29	37	24	5	90	18.32	8	0
3630	42.38	42	44	1	92	20.60	8	1
329	40.98	38	36	6	87	20.52	4	0
2471	39.42	39	39	4	91	18.15	4	0
840	47.82	49	54	4	100	19.65	5	0
639	30.25	28	35	1	83	17.55	15	1
11	23.80	21	13	1	75	15.65	29	1
191	52.16	51	56	5	96	18.76	2	0
3310	44.04	43.5	42	3	96	19.98	2	0
816	39.88	38	32	3	94	18.28	5	0
3937	48.48	47	47	6	93	19.94	1	0
2062	45.11	43	39	6	93	20.28	4	0
2936	24.76	22	27	2	71	14.52	25	0
271	80.84	83	100	37	100	14.95	0	0
3230	46.89	46	60	6	97	20.10	3	0
115	34.02	33	19	1	87	17.88	10	2
714	37.62	37	47	3	84	18.52	4	0
1640	48.53	45	45	9	92	20.10	0	0
1519	28.44	27	27	2	74	15.42	19	0
555	67.46	70	72	24	99	18.66	0	0
4089	49.80	48	56	4	96	20.38	1	0
2640	45.50	46	53	1	99	19.19	6	1
360	64.56	64	51	13	97	18.51	0	0
3990	70.39	72.5	92	23	100	17.96	0	0
3504	83.98	87.5	94	46	100	12.53	0	0
435	71.83	75	84	23	100	18.58	0	0
4183	74.92	78	92	24	100	17.17	0	0
1209	82.13	85	95	36	100	14.40	0	0
2194	66.98	68	67	8	99	19.16	1	0
2705	66.84	69	76	22	99	17.37	0	0
1772	67.83	67	65	13	100	17.54	0	0
2059	62.36	64	75	13	99	19.50	0	0
1622	62.99	63	49	21	99	17.77	0	0
1506	70.47	72	78	23	100	17.56	0	0
4086	51.05	50	49	2	89	17.74	2	0
1219	62.72	63	65	19	100	17.60	0	0
1937	70.90	72	91	19	99	16.83	0	0
4055	31.92	30	30	2	73	15.50	13	0
4021	82.28	86	96	41	100	14.69	0	0
3627	68.23	71	83	12	99	19.20	0	0
378	74.10	75	91	18	100	17.29	0	0
3512	74.79	78	93	3	100	17.58	1	0
41	70.64	72	61	16	98	17.03	0	0
1111	74.22	77	84	19	100	15.60	0	0
86	60.28	60	71	15	98	18.40	0	0
4320	71.93	75	84	10	99	18.80	0	0
375	63.06	65	69	8	98	17.81	1	0
3255	77.66	82	88	30	100	16.53	0	0
2460	80.06	84	89	28	100	14.88	0	0
2200	76.63	80	90	26	100	17.17	0	0
4043	79.60	82	95	40	100	14.49	0	0
4122	49.41	49.5	60	11	91	18.61	0	0
1126	76.62	79	70	24	100	16.09	0	0
3566	72.57	73	67	14	100	16.31	0	0
3083	83.62	86	91	36	100	12.92	0	0
4188	82.75	86	93	31	100	14.65	0	0
1178	60.87	63	67	10	96	18.02	0	0
45	43.10	43	38	7	90	16.03	1	0
4228	81.47	84	89	16	100	13.81	0	0
1329	67.77	70.5	73	7	100	19.24	1	0
457	87.52	93	98	40	100	12.75	0	0
3176	76.68	79	73	30	100	14.54	0	0
611	92.02	96	99	56	100	9.39	0	0
2902	85.55	90	98	31	100	13.31	0	0
2574	68.83	72	68	18	99	18.79	0	0
4379	84.23	88	90	30	100	12.60	0	0
2517	62.24	61.5	50	18	100	17.76	0	0
4262	93.36	97	100	54	100	8.56	0	0
QPs:
Code:
	avg	med	mode	min	max	stdev	Perfect
469	31.98	32	32	26	36	2.24	15
1717	29.86	30	28	22	36	2.99	6
548	29.93	30	30	22	36	2.69	1
1983	27.47	28	28	18	34	3.05	0
330	27.57	28	28	19	34	3.09	0
365	27.57	28	28	21	34	3.07	0
118	28.89	29	30	20	36	3.09	3
842	24.04	24	24	18	32	3.12	0
2122	26.31	26	26	18	34	3.37	0
111	23.18	24	24	12	31	3.62	0
1629	23.90	24	24	14	32	3.74	0
1023	25.09	26	26	16	32	3.51	0
488	23.77	24	22	12	34	3.65	0
222	22.37	22	22	12	32	4.01	0
2067	22.12	22	24	12	32	3.77	0
1662	24.30	24	24	15	32	3.63	0
1540	26.58	26	26	18	36	3.37	2
610	22.22	22	22	11	32	3.61	0
340	24.04	24	24	14	34	3.39	0
3018	24.55	24	26	14	32	3.58	0
175	25.23	26	26	16	34	3.45	0
107	20.68	20	20	11	28	3.39	0
68	21.03	21.5	22	12	32	4.16	0
3357	20.17	20	20	10	28	3.77	0
2834	24.03	24	26	14	34	3.77	0
1241	20.78	22	22	10	30	3.64	0
4294	25.68	26	26	16	35	3.50	0
1635	23.19	23.5	26	14	35	3.77	0
2468	18.98	18.5	18	10	28	3.73	0
79	23.57	24	22	14	34	3.54	0
3930	23.33	24	26	14	31	3.65	0
181	23.63	24	24	16	32	3.46	0
3245	21.45	22	22	11	30	3.67	0
3630	20.67	20	20	10	32	4.21	0
329	21.06	22	24	12	30	4.06	0
2471	21.21	21	22	10	30	3.59	0
840	19.33	19.5	18	5	30	3.93	0
639	23.19	24	24	14	34	3.71	0
11	24.13	24	26	14	32	3.52	0
191	19.06	19	18	10	30	3.70	0
3310	19.91	20	20	10	32	3.89	0
816	21.20	22	22	10	34	3.70	0
3937	19.29	20	20	8	29	3.79	0
2062	19.60	20	20	10	30	3.78	0
2936	24.34	24	24	16	34	3.35	0
271	12.80	13	14	4	22	3.78	0
3230	20.18	20	18	8	30	3.94	0
115	22.99	22.5	22	13	34	3.63	0
714	21.94	22	20	14	32	3.76	0
1640	19.15	20	20	10	28	3.83	0
1519	24.22	24	26	16	33	3.35	0
555	16.45	16	16	8	24	3.81	0
4089	19.46	20	20	8	30	3.95	0
2640	20.13	20	18	6	32	3.88	0
360	16.81	17	18	8	26	3.66	0
3990	15.06	15.5	16	4	26	3.80	0
3504	12.46	12	12	3	20	3.36	0
435	15.24	15	14	5	24	4.07	0
4183	13.92	14	14	4	24	3.79	0
1209	12.94	12	14	4	22	3.50	0
2194	16.09	16	18	6	30	4.00	0
2705	15.67	16	16	7	24	3.44	0
1772	15.95	16	18	6	26	3.78	0
2059	17.06	17	18	6	26	3.85	0
1622	17.34	18	18	8	26	3.54	0
1506	15.95	16	16	6	26	3.73	0
4086	19.53	20	20	11	32	3.40	0
1219	17.39	18	18	6	25	3.53	0
1937	15.40	16	16	8	26	3.54	0
4055	23.40	24	24	16	32	3.26	0
4021	12.42	12	12	4	21	3.69	0
3627	15.87	16	16	5	28	4.01	0
378	14.47	14	14	4	26	3.93	0
3512	14.35	14	14	6	31	3.99	0
41	15.40	16	16	8	26	3.65	0
1111	14.85	14	14	6	26	3.41	0
86	17.75	18	18	8	28	3.60	0
4320	14.71	14	16	6	28	4.02	0
375	17.44	18	16	8	30	3.49	0
3255	14.20	14	12	6	23	3.84	0
2460	13.31	14	16	4	24	3.68	0
2200	14.29	14	16	4	24	3.90	0
4043	13.16	13	12	4	21	3.38	0
4122	20.05	20	18	12	28	3.36	0
1126	14.14	14	14	4	24	3.67	0
3566	15.53	16	16	6	26	3.47	0
3083	13.05	14	14	0	22	3.54	0
4188	12.98	12.5	12	5	23	3.62	0
1178	17.18	17.5	18	8	28	3.58	0
45	20.84	20.5	22	12	28	2.98	0
4228	13.68	14	14	4	26	3.40	0
1329	16.77	16	16	8	29	3.75	0
457	11.60	12	10	4	22	3.66	0
3176	14.70	14	14	6	24	3.27	0
611	9.57	10	10	0	18	3.55	0
2902	11.99	12	10	2	24	3.53	0
2574	16.16	16	16	8	26	3.84	0
4379	12.86	12	12	6	24	3.31	0
2517	17.82	18	18	8	26	3.44	0
4262	9.45	10	8	2	19	3.40	0
Wins:
Code:
	avg	med	mode	min	max	stdev	Perfect
469	8.32	8	9	6	9	0.73	92
1717	8.33	8	9	5	9	0.76	97
548	7.67	8	8	5	9	0.94	38
1983	7.55	8	8	4	9	1.10	45
330	7.28	7	8	4	9	1.22	35
365	7.12	7	7	3	9	1.16	19
118	7.26	7	8	4	9	1.23	32
842	7.11	7	7	4	9	1.15	22
2122	6.81	7	7	3	9	1.25	15
111	6.82	7	8	3	9	1.25	11
1629	6.56	7	7	3	9	1.37	13
1023	6.59	7	7	3	9	1.40	15
488	6.44	7	7	2	9	1.42	11
222	6.31	6	7	3	9	1.38	11
2067	6.12	6	6	2	9	1.43	6
1662	6.15	6	6	2	9	1.40	6
1540	6.02	6	6	2	9	1.49	11
610	6.06	6	6	0	9	1.48	3
340	6.06	6	6	3	9	1.32	3
3018	6.03	6	6	2	9	1.32	3
175	5.91	6	6	2	9	1.27	2
107	5.36	5	5	1	9	1.38	1
68	5.41	5	5	2	9	1.54	1
3357	5.25	5	5	1	9	1.47	2
2834	5.39	6	6	2	9	1.45	4
1241	5.22	5	6	1	8	1.44	0
4294	5.13	5	6	2	8	1.47	0
1635	5.03	5	5	1	9	1.48	1
2468	4.95	5	5	1	9	1.57	1
79	4.76	5	4	1	8	1.35	0
3930	4.67	5	5	1	9	1.56	1
181	4.87	5	5	2	8	1.35	0
3245	4.89	5	5	1	9	1.42	1
3630	4.66	5	5	1	9	1.58	3
329	4.69	5	5	0	8	1.62	0
2471	4.74	5	5	1	8	1.40	0
840	4.52	4	4	0	9	1.54	1
639	4.81	5	5	1	8	1.53	0
11	4.90	5	5	1	8	1.46	0
191	4.75	5	5	1	8	1.46	0
3310	4.54	4	4	0	8	1.52	0
816	4.51	4	4	1	9	1.58	2
3937	4.63	5	5	1	9	1.51	2
2062	4.57	5	5	1	8	1.55	0
2936	4.55	5	4	1	9	1.45	1
271	4.59	5	4	0	8	1.56	0
3230	4.52	4	4	0	8	1.58	0
115	4.26	4	3	0	9	1.56	1
714	4.21	4	4	0	9	1.51	1
1640	4.27	4	4	0	9	1.49	1
1519	4.03	4	4	1	8	1.43	0
555	4.11	4	4	0	8	1.55	0
4089	4.22	4	4	0	8	1.57	0
2640	3.82	4	4	0	8	1.51	0
360	3.88	4	3	1	7	1.36	0
3990	4.10	4	4	1	8	1.51	0
3504	4.01	4	4	0	9	1.45	1
435	3.74	4	3	0	8	1.54	0
4183	3.77	4	3	0	8	1.52	0
1209	3.76	4	4	1	7	1.35	0
2194	3.79	4	4	0	8	1.53	0
2705	3.69	4	4	0	8	1.38	0
1772	3.78	4	4	0	7	1.36	0
2059	3.52	4	4	0	8	1.52	0
1622	3.64	4	4	0	9	1.40	1
1506	3.55	3.5	3	1	8	1.38	0
4086	3.49	3	3	0	7	1.33	0
1219	3.50	3	3	0	7	1.44	0
1937	3.31	3	3	0	8	1.44	0
4055	3.29	3	4	0	7	1.49	0
4021	3.23	3	3	0	7	1.44	0
3627	3.17	3	2	0	7	1.42	0
378	3.23	3	3	0	6	1.42	0
3512	3.30	3	3	0	8	1.50	0
41	3.27	3	3	1	7	1.30	0
1111	3.16	3	3	0	7	1.29	0
86	3.19	3	3	0	6	1.29	0
4320	3.05	3	4	0	8	1.51	0
375	3.15	3	3	0	7	1.49	0
3255	3.18	3	3	0	7	1.33	0
2460	3.04	3	3	0	6	1.38	0
2200	3.11	3	3	0	6	1.42	0
4043	3.28	3	3	0	6	1.37	0
4122	3.09	3	3	0	6	1.30	0
1126	3.00	3	3	0	8	1.35	0
3566	2.95	3	2	0	7	1.41	0
3083	2.80	3	4	0	6	1.39	0
4188	2.87	3	3	0	7	1.43	0
1178	3.02	3	3	0	8	1.41	0
45	2.94	3	2	0	6	1.34	0
4228	2.74	3	3	0	8	1.34	0
1329	2.58	3	3	0	7	1.42	0
457	2.59	3	3	0	6	1.32	0
3176	2.51	2	2	0	5	1.13	0
611	2.22	2	2	0	7	1.35	0
2902	2.45	2	2	0	6	1.33	0
2574	2.45	2	3	0	6	1.36	0
4379	2.17	2	2	0	6	1.18	0
2517	2.23	2	2	0	5	1.16	0
4262	2.13	2	2	0	6	1.17	0