Quote:
Originally Posted by Jared341
I have "simulated" IRI using each team's best regional/divisional OPR (tiebreaker: average OPR from Ed Law's post-Championship spreadsheet). I assumed "optimal" play - the teams seed according to OPR, and pick the highest OPR team available in every situation (keeping in mind the 1-8, 1-8, 8-1 IRI selection order). Here are the alliances that I ended up with (also making the assumption that all invited teams do attend):
#1: 2056 - 469 - 25 - 340
#2: 341 - 118 - 1023 - 111
#3: 2826 - 67 - 330 - 3322
#4: 1114 - 33 - 3098 - 971
#5: 548 - 359 - 744 - 829
#6: 148 - 254 - 2054 - 1676
#7: 973 - 624 - 16 - 2168
#8: 2481 - 868 - 68 - 399
All predictions are guaranteed to be wrong, or your money back.
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If you don't mind me saying, while they're very similar, I found Most Recent OPR was a better predictor than Best OPR at the 2012 CMP. Of course, there's no guarantee that will also be the case at IRI. Either way, I'm continuing to do research and plan to go into past years as well. This may turn into a white paper, eventually.
As for the issue of new drive teams, my predictions were based statistically on the regular season+CMP, so they assume the same drive teams will be used. Just another failing of statistics.

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