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Brandon Holley · #21 02-08-2012, 09:40

Quote:

Originally Posted by JonathanZur1836

Take the NBA playoffs for instance, the way it works is that the top 8 teams from each conference move onto the playoffs; the 1st place team plays the 8th place team in the first round, the 2nd plays the 7th, and so on. At least from the point of view of statistics, the better your record, the higher your chance of winning. It is a simple system in which winning is always advantageous, and "throwing a game" always works against you in the end.

I think this slightly oversimplifies a standard regular season/playoffs season for big sports like NBA, MLB, NHL etc.

From a pure numbers point of view, yeah it would make sense that the team who won the most games in the regular season statistically has the best chance of winning in the playoffs. However, the games are played by humans and not computers.

Take for example a star player missing half of the regular NBA season with an ankle issue. The team very well may lose significantly more games than they would have won with that player in the lineup. The team ends up near the #4 seed as they approach the playoffs and their star player rejoins the lineup.

Simultaneously, the team in the #5 seed has a tough schedule coming up to finish the regular season, and some of their starters are in need of some rest before the playoffs. Maybe they go out with their B+ lineup instead of their A lineup. They give their starters a few more minutes rest than they normally would.

The whole time they know the highest they can seed is #5, while the lowest they can seed is #7. Coincidentally, the #2 seed (which is who the #7 would play in the 1st round) has lost one of their key support players. Oh yeah, and the current #5 seed swept the season series against the #2.

For the #5 seed, it may make more sense to not really give 100% effort and win those last few regular season games. If they end up the #7, they realistically may have a better shot than they would if they were the #5 and had to face a reinvigorated #4 in the 1st round.

Just some food for thought.

-Brando