You forgot that if you didn't win the year before, you won last year, then you have a pretty good shot at being the winning alliance the next year
2008 - 476 1802 1806
2009 - 1806 931 1208
2010 - 2345 525 931
2011 - 525 1730 3784
2012 - 1986 16 3784
It's statistics I tell you. Prediction, right now, and first: Either Bomb Squad or Titanium will be on the winning alliance next year.