[CalTran]

Right now I'd say about 30%. Rationale: Let's say that 30pts this game is a lot of points. (Historically, I'd say that's an accurate statement. People, as proven, usually go into a game reasonably optimistic about how well they can do the main task. Understandably just, as it is what they plan on engineering for.) But then rolls along the teams that think "Hey, 30ts are a lot of points. And, we can almost double that if we score in the Pyramid goal." So they score 50tps a match, and I would say they are consistent, because that's what these teams are spending their season creating. So they go and score 50pts a match. And, for most regionals, that'd result in a pretty good, if not the best seed. If they're not the number one seed, they would probably be picked by the number 1 shooter. (That's what I would do. If I can shoot well enough to seed over a climber, I'd want a climber who can bolster my white frisbee points with climb and pyramid goal points.) Then, as a second pick, I would take a decent shooter. So that's 1/6 of the teams per regional who can do a 30pt climb. Let's also say that if you can design a climbing mechanism that gets to the third level, it works incredibly well but you miss out on the winning alliance. But, since it's probably incredibly designed, you win Engineering Inspiration for doing the task that people called impossible. So, 2/6 robots per regional can do a 30pt climb. Subtract out for various regionals not having climbers, people double qualifying, the districts not being the 6 robots to champs, all those other things, and you're probably sitting at 20-30 teams. Assuming Champs holds the same number as last year, that's probably about a hundred teams that can climb to the third tier.

Or, to quote one Albus Dumbledore here, I'm "being optimistic to the point of foolishness."