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Unread 24-01-2013, 04:34
TheMadCADer TheMadCADer is offline
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Re: Predicted Match Scores at Championships

I'm predicting (assuming no climbing points changes) 100 points for a winning alliance in qualifications, and 180 for winners in eliminations. Math and assumptions below. It feels like I'm a bit high with these estimates, since I don't think I allocated enough time to driving to get discs and to line up for shooting.

First, qualifications. Historically, teams tend to be paired such that each alliance has an average of about one quality scorer. This team has a reliable scoring device, simple preloaded autonomous, and at least a 10 point hanging device (some will have better, some nothing, but it'll likely average out to about 10). Judging by prototype videos I've been seeing, this shooter can launch a disc every second, and the robot will hold 4 discs at a time. Judging by the size of the field, accuracy and range of shooters so far, and feeding station limits, I think that these robots will have to drive an average of about 25 feet each way to collect discs after shooting, from either the feeding station or off the floor (as you will see later, this should increase during eliminations, just like it did in 2011, another year with limited game pieces). Let's say that this driving will take a total of 10 seconds round-trip, estimating based on Logomotion (similar field setup). Let's also say that all 4 discs will be added to the robot's inventory in a total of 5 seconds (not continuous for floor pickup, but about 5 still). Stringing this all together, the robot drives 5 seconds, picks up discs for 5 seconds, drives for 5 seconds, shoots for 4 seconds, and then does it again. One cycle is 19 seconds, rounded up to 20 for simplicity that allows for exactly 6 cycles in 120 seconds. Chances are, things don't go perfectly, and they only get 5, allowing a bit of climbing time at the end of the match. In total you have your 3*6=18 auto points, 5*4*3=60 tele-op points, and 1*10 climbing points, earning this robot alone 88 points per match. Alliance partners can't be relied on for much more than 10-15 points in qualifications (a couple discs and 10 point hangers), so an average score ends up around 100.

However, I don't see anything limiting 3 good robots all scoring discs in this game (3 feeder stations, open field, lots of discs, wide goals), plus some teams will have autonomous sequences that will score the discs that start on the floor. In the most unlikely of pairings, I could see 3 shooters getting together, with 2 of them combining to score the 6 extra discs in auto (in addition to all 9 pre-loaded discs), and all three having 30 point climbing devices that somehow combine to score all 6 coloured discs. This would give a maximum of 15*6=90 auto points, 5*4*3*3=180 tele-op points, 6*5=30 pyramid goal points, and 3*30=90 climbing points, for a theoretical maximum score of 390 points. Disclaimer: this scenario will never happen, no team with that lead after just autonomous will risk their robot falling from the top of the pyramid. I could see somewhere in the 200 range as a possibility, although it would be highly improbable.

Eliminations will be quite similar, though teams will have to drive longer to get discs as people use starvation strategies and defense becomes a factor. Also, each alliance will probably have two shooters each, and some will have a dedicated climber as well. Auto points per match increase to around 40 as two robots score their pre-loaded discs and some score floor discs as well. Teams only complete 4 scoring cycles each, but 2 robots on each alliance can do this now, so tele-op points go up to around 4*4*3*2=96 points. Climbing points get tricky here, since it all depends on which teams get picked and how dedicated climbers seed. I can see 100 point endgames happening (two 30 point climbs, one 10 point climb, plus all 6 coloured discs in the pyramid goal), but I can also see an elimination alliance having 3 level one climbers, or 1 level three climber, or various combinations of those different options. The minimum here is definitely 30 points for the alliance, with a ceiling around 100. I'll take a wild guess with 50 and call it a day. Add it all up and my typical elimination alliance (this really applies more to the top 4 seeds than the bottom 4) scores around 180 points per match.

These both seem quite high to me, but I guess we just have to wait to find out how far off I was. However I've got a pretty good record going this year, I predicted that this year's game would be "Like Aim High, but with frisbees" during December...
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