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Originally Posted by Donut
Is this always the case, or is it 90% accurate at just the regional you attended? I haven't checked the correlation at the Wisconsin regional, but comparing OPR data to the scouting data we collected on individual robot scoring from Friday shows OPR to be off quite a bit at a quick glance
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At Boilermaker Regional, I calculated OPR as well as match predictions for Saturday (after teams had played 8 or 9 matches). It predicted the winning alliance correctly 20 out of 24 times. Score predictions were low by about 10-20 points on average, but that showed that robots were improving.
The other thing that surprised me about the Boilermaker OPR is that there were a couple of cases that demonstrated accuracy. There were 2 single purpose robots in particular - one that hung for 30 points and one that hung for 10 points. OPR after Friday was 29 and 11 respectively. Anecdotal evidence I'm sure, but it seems that this year's game is easy to decompose (even easier than last year).
OPR might be good at identifying top pick candidates, but nothing beats old fashioned scouting. My advice is to write down 5-10 attributes you think make a robot "good" for the game. This year, accuracy, distance, as well as how quickly can they hang, and floor pickup are good attributes. Attributes that are pretty universal between games describe robot drive trains, like speed and pushing power.
The next step is to find 3 or 6 dedicated students to watch robots from the stands. These students need to focus on a single robot during each match, writing down as much detail as they possibly can.
The last thing you might consider is writing down robot *features*. When I was watching matches this year, whenever I saw a battery move within a robot, I advised the scouters to note it. It's a hard lesson to learn, but it sunk my team and our alliance during eliminations in 2006 when our battery wasn't secured properly and knocked open our pneumatic release valve, and disabled the robot through the remainder of the match. There are other things like this that are easy to spot (bumpers dragging on the floor), that can potentially draw lots of fouls or a disabled robot.
Hope this helps your scouting effort!