Quote:
Originally Posted by Ether
Interesting observation, and I got the same answer you did.
In 82% of the matches, the outcome of the match (win or lose) was the same according to the actual score and the OPR "expected" score.
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Id love to see some confidence intervals on this. With a .95 CI it might be neat to try and apply it to matches this weekend before they happen and see to what accuracy an event could be predicted.