Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover
My question is badly stated. How soon can projected results be generated once the qualifying schedule is published. How easy is this to do? I can do it myself if possible.
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Starting from row 154 are the qualification matches. Column L and M is the prediction of each match. However it cannot predict match results until there are data. It needs a few matches before it will even be able to solve the equations. To get accurate and meaningful numbers, I think you need at least 4 to 5 matches.
The over 80% accuracy is after all the qualifying matches are available. A least square fit is used which is why the error is minimized. The number is even more impressive if you consider the close matches that can swing either way. During the qualifying matches, even after 4 to 5 matches, the prediction is not as accurate. But it is the best method there is and that is what most people use. I have not done any studies but the accuracy should be over 66% this year and the later matches will get more and more accurate.
Ether, this is another interesting challenge for you.
However there is another way to do this. It is by using historical OPR or projected OPR. But it only works with all 6 teams in that match has played in another event.