Quote:
Originally Posted by Ether
Here's a spreadsheet in a format which may be somewhat easier to use for various statistical analysis endeavors.
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Thanks, Ether. Some other interesting phenomena:
- For matches predicted incorrectly, the median actual margin was 10 and the median OPR margin was 9. This is compared to the overall median margin of 27 and OPR margin of 23. (21% and 22% of all margins are in these upper bounds, respectively.) Pretty impressive!
- The overall median score error (note everything here is in absolute values) is 26%.
- The winning score error is 23%, while the losing is 32%. (For matches predicted correctly, the former is 21% while the latter is the same.)
- OPR underpredicts the winning score 60% of the time, and overpredicts the losing score 63% of the time.
I wonder if there's some way to identify good defense based on the over and under-prediction trends.