Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeE
Those numbers are misleading since OPR/CCWM are calculated from the same data which are being used to test their predictive power, i.e. the training & test sets are the same.
|
That's a valid criticism, which could be addressed by using Weeks 1 thru 4 OPR numbers to predict Week5 outcomes. That would take a little bit more work, since Week5 may have teams which are competing for the first time, so they would have no OPR values. Those matches would have to be omitted from the analysis.