[efoote868]

Originally Posted by MikeE

Good practice would use disjoint training and testing sets. I'm sure this analysis has been performed in previous seasons but I didn't see it from a brief search of CD.

Interestingly the simple baseline heuristic of "alliance with lower team numbers" has 59.1% predictive power for qualification matches this season. I'm assume that OPR and CCWM are better than that, but not as good as the ~82% claimed above.

At Boilermaker Regional I calculated the OPR of teams using their Friday match results (about 8 or 9 matches), and tracked the qualification results on Saturday. OPR predictions were 20 for 24.

I'm guessing the easiest place to track predictive power would be the Championship event.

Originally Posted by Ether

That's a valid criticism, which could be addressed by using Weeks 1 thru 4 OPR numbers to predict Week5 outcomes. That would take a little bit more work, since Week5 may have teams which are competing for the first time, so they would have no OPR values. Those matches would have to be omitted from the analysis.

I'd be interested in substituting unknown values with world averages. I'll probably do this during Crossroads until each team has played 5 matches.