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Unread 10-04-2013, 18:52
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Re: Michigan State Championship

Similar to what I did in previous years, I ran through 100 simulated qualification match schedules (with 12 matches per team, using the FIRST match generator).

I used each team's world rank OPR from Ed Law's spreadsheet to determine their contribution to a match. I also used the autonomous OPR, climb OPR, and teleop OPR to help calculate the standings.

I calculated the results for each of the 100 simulated qualification schedules, and then looked at some statistics from the aggregate results.

The following were the values that were used in the simulation

Code:
	OPR	Teleop	Auto	Climb
469	76.70	46.58	23.26	6.90
33	65.54	27.61	30.20	8.31
2959	56.70	28.24	18.49	10.56
67	55.15	36.23	11.63	7.48
1718	53.98	31.35	12.41	10.13
245	52.97	31.29	14.16	7.76
2054	52.10	24.78	20.22	7.49
862	48.60	25.42	13.08	10.30
4325	47.20	21.94	16.43	9.31
3414	45.48	23.35	12.20	10.17
1918	45.01	20.52	17.16	7.62
2474	42.75	25.46	19.09	-0.81
3539	41.98	20.12	15.84	6.14
3641	41.92	21.27	9.36	11.43
573	41.75	24.20	9.89	8.19
3234	41.74	18.91	13.31	10.34
2612	41.22	18.57	14.86	7.80
1684	40.27	25.02	9.89	5.22
70	38.81	11.59	20.87	6.53
51	38.59	17.14	14.33	7.35
3572	38.24	9.08	14.01	15.46
2000	38.07	16.77	14.06	7.52
68	36.92	22.74	12.86	1.38
4384	36.73	14.53	15.02	7.18
27	36.43	26.37	11.73	-1.54
494	36.36	6.38	19.99	5.72
2619	36.24	17.80	11.87	6.34
4130	35.84	18.19	10.29	7.38
858	35.34	14.03	12.58	8.76
1189	34.86	12.18	15.18	7.61
2145	34.36	22.38	2.91	9.29
107	33.78	17.25	6.68	9.35
2137	33.78	15.90	10.51	7.67
123	32.77	17.09	10.93	5.32
326	32.66	15.38	13.26	3.94
2771	31.34	17.86	13.15	0.12
3604	31.26	21.68	7.27	2.24
3656	30.13	14.11	11.44	4.36
314	29.59	18.09	8.63	2.83
4381	29.32	8.62	13.90	7.26
1023	29.32	8.16	9.24	12.68
3688	28.55	13.72	9.76	6.06
2673	28.30	10.25	10.31	7.86
2767	28.21	16.63	8.28	4.17
1701	27.30	8.56	11.26	7.93
3602	26.77	10.91	7.96	8.12
3618	26.01	17.18	3.77	4.65
1504	26.01	11.05	7.06	7.74
217	25.84	18.37	6.87	0.87
280	25.18	10.49	11.36	3.49
2851	25.01	7.61	8.39	9.36
2611	24.68	4.98	10.97	8.69
503	23.49	13.71	6.69	3.77
141	21.81	1.08	12.28	8.58
1025	21.58	1.12	1.43	19.26
4391	20.57	6.32	8.33	5.75
2834	20.50	10.61	6.59	3.89
2337	20.19	6.13	8.52	5.88
857	19.81	4.08	9.80	5.91
2960	19.05	9.80	3.26	5.90
3421	12.87	2.10	5.31	5.45
548	12.47	6.98	7.18	-1.65
910	11.53	7.46	5.12	-0.60
4377	10.56	2.99	6.16	1.64
Here are the results of how teams seed:

Code:
	AvgRnk	MedRnk	ModeRnk	MinRnk	MaxRnk	SDRnk	#1Seed	Top8
469	1.54	1	1	1	9	1.07	66	99
33	2.93	2	2	1	13	2.32	26	97
2959	5.83	5	3	1	22	3.94	2	82
67	8.91	6.5	4	1	29	6.42	3	62
2054	10.02	7	6	1	38	7.33	1	56
245	10.2	8	3	1	34	7.04	1	52
1718	10.66	9	4	2	34	7.26	0	43
862	12.51	11	5	2	33	7.37	0	38
4325	12.85	11	8	2	46	8.99	0	41
1918	14.28	13	12	2	47	8.97	0	25
3414	16.96	15	15	3	56	9.78	0	20
2474	19	18	20	3	61	11.43	0	20
3539	19.03	19	19	3	50	11.29	0	20
573	21.7	21	18	3	45	10.51	0	11
2612	21.98	21	12	4	49	10.67	0	9
51	22	20.5	16	3	50	11.40	0	10
3234	22.86	22	12	3	60	12.32	0	14
3641	23	22	16	4	47	10.73	0	7
2000	23.29	21	15	2	51	12.51	0	7
70	23.31	22	19	1	53	12.91	1	14
3572	24	22.5	8	2	60	14.32	0	17
1684	25.36	24	24	6	56	12.14	0	8
494	25.74	25.5	26	3	55	12.25	0	6
68	26.37	26	32	6	56	11.86	0	1
4384	26.74	27	30	4	55	11.90	0	6
27	26.84	26	30	6	53	12.76	0	5
1189	27.48	27	21	3	56	10.59	0	1
2619	27.88	26.5	23	4	59	12.05	0	2
858	28.33	27	21	7	56	11.88	0	2
4130	30.61	30	24	6	57	12.73	0	2
326	32	30.5	22	4	62	13.52	0	1
2137	32.72	33	39	5	60	11.77	0	1
2771	33	31	28	2	64	13.69	0	3
123	33.55	33	30	5	62	14.87	0	3
2145	33.78	36	36	4	60	14.11	0	3
107	34.93	36	26	6	61	12.93	0	2
3656	36.97	38	32	6	64	13.46	0	4
4381	38.14	38	48	6	64	12.34	0	2
3604	38.31	41.5	42	9	63	13.46	0	0
3688	38.9	40	42	7	62	12.56	0	1
2673	39.66	40	40	10	60	11.92	0	0
1023	40.38	43	50	9	61	12.62	0	0
314	40.62	42	48	6	64	12.94	0	1
1701	40.96	42.5	50	10	62	11.88	0	0
2767	42.72	42	51	15	62	10.36	0	0
2611	43.11	46	54	10	64	12.18	0	0
1504	43.64	44	52	15	64	12.28	0	0
3602	43.74	45.5	51	15	62	12.24	0	0
280	43.76	45	46	6	62	11.84	0	1
3618	44.96	46	53	8	63	12.09	0	1
217	45.4	46	44	11	62	11.06	0	0
2851	46.89	50	52	20	64	10.94	0	0
141	48.07	51	56	21	64	11.30	0	0
2337	49.98	51	56	26	64	9.33	0	0
4391	50.29	54	57	17	64	10.79	0	0
503	50.39	52	63	19	64	10.19	0	0
857	50.51	53	56	16	64	10.57	0	0
1025	50.85	53	63	18	64	10.80	0	0
2834	51.2	54.5	60	16	64	10.31	0	0
2960	53.61	55	59	19	64	8.74	0	0
3421	57.81	60	64	32	64	6.39	0	0
548	58.26	60	63	32	64	6.19	0	0
910	59.32	61	64	36	64	5.65	0	0
4377	59.36	61	64	38	64	5.23	0	0
Here are the results for number of wins:

Code:
	AvgWins	MedWins	ModeWins	MinWins	MaxWins	SDWins
469	11.5	12	12	9	12	0.66
33	10.49	11	11	8	12	1.05
2959	9.65	10	10	7	12	1.06
67	9.29	9	10	7	12	1.23
1718	8.91	9	10	6	12	1.34
245	8.87	9	10	6	12	1.31
2054	8.58	9	9	5	11	1.27
862	8.51	8	8	6	12	1.31
4325	8.22	8	8	4	11	1.33
3414	7.82	8	8	3	11	1.37
1918	7.96	8	8	4	11	1.47
2474	7.17	7	7	2	10	1.52
3539	7.33	7	7	4	10	1.53
3641	7.26	7	8	4	10	1.30
573	7.3	7	7	5	11	1.35
3234	6.98	7	7	2	10	1.58
2612	6.96	7	8	4	11	1.37
1684	6.91	7	8	3	10	1.55
70	6.7	7	6	3	12	1.66
51	6.99	7	7	4	10	1.49
3572	6.78	7	7	2	11	1.82
2000	6.93	7	8	4	11	1.58
68	6.5	6.5	6	3	10	1.40
4384	6.35	6	6	3	10	1.40
27	6.59	7	6	3	10	1.63
494	6.31	6	6	3	10	1.43
2619	6.4	7	7	2	10	1.45
4130	6.22	6	7	3	10	1.57
858	6.25	6	6	3	9	1.41
1189	6.23	6	6	3	10	1.24
2145	6.1	6	6	2	10	1.65
107	5.87	6	6	2	10	1.62
2137	5.86	6	5	2	10	1.47
123	5.73	6	6	2	10	1.77
326	5.72	6	6	2	10	1.65
2771	5.67	6	7	1	10	1.72
3604	5.42	5	5	1	9	1.66
3656	5.25	5	6	1	9	1.73
314	5.05	5	6	0	10	1.71
4381	4.98	5	4	0	9	1.53
1023	5.05	5	4	2	9	1.54
3688	5.15	5	5	2	9	1.56
2673	5.04	5	5	2	9	1.43
2767	4.8	5	5	1	7	1.31
1701	4.79	5	5	1	8	1.43
3602	4.72	5	4	1	8	1.56
3618	4.69	5	5	1	9	1.57
1504	4.71	5	5	1	8	1.61
217	4.54	4.5	4	2	8	1.40
280	4.39	4	5	1	10	1.61
2851	4.28	4	3	1	7	1.43
2611	4.5	4	4	0	8	1.53
503	3.83	4	4	1	8	1.42
141	3.7	3.5	3	0	7	1.57
1025	3.87	4	3	1	8	1.50
4391	3.79	4	3	0	8	1.55
2834	3.65	3.5	3	1	8	1.57
2337	3.68	4	4	0	7	1.39
857	3.53	3	3	0	8	1.49
2960	3.54	3	3	0	8	1.36
3421	2.51	2.5	2	0	5	1.34
548	2.36	2	2	0	6	1.22
910	2.23	2	2	0	6	1.24
4377	2.21	2	2	0	6	1.16
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