Similar to what I did in
previous years, I ran through 100 simulated qualification match schedules (with 12 matches per team, using the FIRST match generator).
I used each team's world rank OPR from Ed Law's spreadsheet to determine their contribution to a match. I also used the autonomous OPR, climb OPR, and teleop OPR to help calculate the standings.
I calculated the results for each of the 100 simulated qualification schedules, and then looked at some statistics from the aggregate results.
The following were the values that were used in the simulation
Code:
OPR Teleop Auto Climb
469 76.70 46.58 23.26 6.90
33 65.54 27.61 30.20 8.31
2959 56.70 28.24 18.49 10.56
67 55.15 36.23 11.63 7.48
1718 53.98 31.35 12.41 10.13
245 52.97 31.29 14.16 7.76
2054 52.10 24.78 20.22 7.49
862 48.60 25.42 13.08 10.30
4325 47.20 21.94 16.43 9.31
3414 45.48 23.35 12.20 10.17
1918 45.01 20.52 17.16 7.62
2474 42.75 25.46 19.09 -0.81
3539 41.98 20.12 15.84 6.14
3641 41.92 21.27 9.36 11.43
573 41.75 24.20 9.89 8.19
3234 41.74 18.91 13.31 10.34
2612 41.22 18.57 14.86 7.80
1684 40.27 25.02 9.89 5.22
70 38.81 11.59 20.87 6.53
51 38.59 17.14 14.33 7.35
3572 38.24 9.08 14.01 15.46
2000 38.07 16.77 14.06 7.52
68 36.92 22.74 12.86 1.38
4384 36.73 14.53 15.02 7.18
27 36.43 26.37 11.73 -1.54
494 36.36 6.38 19.99 5.72
2619 36.24 17.80 11.87 6.34
4130 35.84 18.19 10.29 7.38
858 35.34 14.03 12.58 8.76
1189 34.86 12.18 15.18 7.61
2145 34.36 22.38 2.91 9.29
107 33.78 17.25 6.68 9.35
2137 33.78 15.90 10.51 7.67
123 32.77 17.09 10.93 5.32
326 32.66 15.38 13.26 3.94
2771 31.34 17.86 13.15 0.12
3604 31.26 21.68 7.27 2.24
3656 30.13 14.11 11.44 4.36
314 29.59 18.09 8.63 2.83
4381 29.32 8.62 13.90 7.26
1023 29.32 8.16 9.24 12.68
3688 28.55 13.72 9.76 6.06
2673 28.30 10.25 10.31 7.86
2767 28.21 16.63 8.28 4.17
1701 27.30 8.56 11.26 7.93
3602 26.77 10.91 7.96 8.12
3618 26.01 17.18 3.77 4.65
1504 26.01 11.05 7.06 7.74
217 25.84 18.37 6.87 0.87
280 25.18 10.49 11.36 3.49
2851 25.01 7.61 8.39 9.36
2611 24.68 4.98 10.97 8.69
503 23.49 13.71 6.69 3.77
141 21.81 1.08 12.28 8.58
1025 21.58 1.12 1.43 19.26
4391 20.57 6.32 8.33 5.75
2834 20.50 10.61 6.59 3.89
2337 20.19 6.13 8.52 5.88
857 19.81 4.08 9.80 5.91
2960 19.05 9.80 3.26 5.90
3421 12.87 2.10 5.31 5.45
548 12.47 6.98 7.18 -1.65
910 11.53 7.46 5.12 -0.60
4377 10.56 2.99 6.16 1.64
Here are the results of how teams seed:
Code:
AvgRnk MedRnk ModeRnk MinRnk MaxRnk SDRnk #1Seed Top8
469 1.54 1 1 1 9 1.07 66 99
33 2.93 2 2 1 13 2.32 26 97
2959 5.83 5 3 1 22 3.94 2 82
67 8.91 6.5 4 1 29 6.42 3 62
2054 10.02 7 6 1 38 7.33 1 56
245 10.2 8 3 1 34 7.04 1 52
1718 10.66 9 4 2 34 7.26 0 43
862 12.51 11 5 2 33 7.37 0 38
4325 12.85 11 8 2 46 8.99 0 41
1918 14.28 13 12 2 47 8.97 0 25
3414 16.96 15 15 3 56 9.78 0 20
2474 19 18 20 3 61 11.43 0 20
3539 19.03 19 19 3 50 11.29 0 20
573 21.7 21 18 3 45 10.51 0 11
2612 21.98 21 12 4 49 10.67 0 9
51 22 20.5 16 3 50 11.40 0 10
3234 22.86 22 12 3 60 12.32 0 14
3641 23 22 16 4 47 10.73 0 7
2000 23.29 21 15 2 51 12.51 0 7
70 23.31 22 19 1 53 12.91 1 14
3572 24 22.5 8 2 60 14.32 0 17
1684 25.36 24 24 6 56 12.14 0 8
494 25.74 25.5 26 3 55 12.25 0 6
68 26.37 26 32 6 56 11.86 0 1
4384 26.74 27 30 4 55 11.90 0 6
27 26.84 26 30 6 53 12.76 0 5
1189 27.48 27 21 3 56 10.59 0 1
2619 27.88 26.5 23 4 59 12.05 0 2
858 28.33 27 21 7 56 11.88 0 2
4130 30.61 30 24 6 57 12.73 0 2
326 32 30.5 22 4 62 13.52 0 1
2137 32.72 33 39 5 60 11.77 0 1
2771 33 31 28 2 64 13.69 0 3
123 33.55 33 30 5 62 14.87 0 3
2145 33.78 36 36 4 60 14.11 0 3
107 34.93 36 26 6 61 12.93 0 2
3656 36.97 38 32 6 64 13.46 0 4
4381 38.14 38 48 6 64 12.34 0 2
3604 38.31 41.5 42 9 63 13.46 0 0
3688 38.9 40 42 7 62 12.56 0 1
2673 39.66 40 40 10 60 11.92 0 0
1023 40.38 43 50 9 61 12.62 0 0
314 40.62 42 48 6 64 12.94 0 1
1701 40.96 42.5 50 10 62 11.88 0 0
2767 42.72 42 51 15 62 10.36 0 0
2611 43.11 46 54 10 64 12.18 0 0
1504 43.64 44 52 15 64 12.28 0 0
3602 43.74 45.5 51 15 62 12.24 0 0
280 43.76 45 46 6 62 11.84 0 1
3618 44.96 46 53 8 63 12.09 0 1
217 45.4 46 44 11 62 11.06 0 0
2851 46.89 50 52 20 64 10.94 0 0
141 48.07 51 56 21 64 11.30 0 0
2337 49.98 51 56 26 64 9.33 0 0
4391 50.29 54 57 17 64 10.79 0 0
503 50.39 52 63 19 64 10.19 0 0
857 50.51 53 56 16 64 10.57 0 0
1025 50.85 53 63 18 64 10.80 0 0
2834 51.2 54.5 60 16 64 10.31 0 0
2960 53.61 55 59 19 64 8.74 0 0
3421 57.81 60 64 32 64 6.39 0 0
548 58.26 60 63 32 64 6.19 0 0
910 59.32 61 64 36 64 5.65 0 0
4377 59.36 61 64 38 64 5.23 0 0
Here are the results for number of wins:
Code:
AvgWins MedWins ModeWins MinWins MaxWins SDWins
469 11.5 12 12 9 12 0.66
33 10.49 11 11 8 12 1.05
2959 9.65 10 10 7 12 1.06
67 9.29 9 10 7 12 1.23
1718 8.91 9 10 6 12 1.34
245 8.87 9 10 6 12 1.31
2054 8.58 9 9 5 11 1.27
862 8.51 8 8 6 12 1.31
4325 8.22 8 8 4 11 1.33
3414 7.82 8 8 3 11 1.37
1918 7.96 8 8 4 11 1.47
2474 7.17 7 7 2 10 1.52
3539 7.33 7 7 4 10 1.53
3641 7.26 7 8 4 10 1.30
573 7.3 7 7 5 11 1.35
3234 6.98 7 7 2 10 1.58
2612 6.96 7 8 4 11 1.37
1684 6.91 7 8 3 10 1.55
70 6.7 7 6 3 12 1.66
51 6.99 7 7 4 10 1.49
3572 6.78 7 7 2 11 1.82
2000 6.93 7 8 4 11 1.58
68 6.5 6.5 6 3 10 1.40
4384 6.35 6 6 3 10 1.40
27 6.59 7 6 3 10 1.63
494 6.31 6 6 3 10 1.43
2619 6.4 7 7 2 10 1.45
4130 6.22 6 7 3 10 1.57
858 6.25 6 6 3 9 1.41
1189 6.23 6 6 3 10 1.24
2145 6.1 6 6 2 10 1.65
107 5.87 6 6 2 10 1.62
2137 5.86 6 5 2 10 1.47
123 5.73 6 6 2 10 1.77
326 5.72 6 6 2 10 1.65
2771 5.67 6 7 1 10 1.72
3604 5.42 5 5 1 9 1.66
3656 5.25 5 6 1 9 1.73
314 5.05 5 6 0 10 1.71
4381 4.98 5 4 0 9 1.53
1023 5.05 5 4 2 9 1.54
3688 5.15 5 5 2 9 1.56
2673 5.04 5 5 2 9 1.43
2767 4.8 5 5 1 7 1.31
1701 4.79 5 5 1 8 1.43
3602 4.72 5 4 1 8 1.56
3618 4.69 5 5 1 9 1.57
1504 4.71 5 5 1 8 1.61
217 4.54 4.5 4 2 8 1.40
280 4.39 4 5 1 10 1.61
2851 4.28 4 3 1 7 1.43
2611 4.5 4 4 0 8 1.53
503 3.83 4 4 1 8 1.42
141 3.7 3.5 3 0 7 1.57
1025 3.87 4 3 1 8 1.50
4391 3.79 4 3 0 8 1.55
2834 3.65 3.5 3 1 8 1.57
2337 3.68 4 4 0 7 1.39
857 3.53 3 3 0 8 1.49
2960 3.54 3 3 0 8 1.36
3421 2.51 2.5 2 0 5 1.34
548 2.36 2 2 0 6 1.22
910 2.23 2 2 0 6 1.24
4377 2.21 2 2 0 6 1.16