[Grim Tuesday]

Ed, Ether,


I was thinking about how to improve OPR and one of the biggest issues with it right now is that it does not take into account team improvement over the course of the event; it is an average.

In OPR we don't really want to do anything like throw out early data points as this would make everything less accurate overall.
So what if we weigh the later matches teams play more? To do this (and I'm sure there's an easier way) you could give them a multiplier on a scale of 1-2 with the increments being 1+(x/n), x being the current match they've played and n being the number of qualifications they will play. For example, for a teams 9th match out of 12 the multiplier would be 1 3/4, so that match counts into their OPR that much more than their earlier ones.

To do this with the current method of calculating OPR (and I don't know if this will make the matrices exponentially too complex) you just count the first match in a schedule of 12 12 times, the second match 13 times, and so on and so forth.

I'm probably overcomplicating it but it looks like it should be possible.

Just some thoughts.