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Unread 14-04-2013, 14:43
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Re: OPR after Week Seven Events

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grim Tuesday View Post
I think one of the best cases of this OPR/Human scout difference was actually at the Buckeye Regional when we picked you guys. In my opinion, the biggest issue with OPR (and I was talking about this in the week 6 thread) is that it doesn't take into consideration improvement -- it's an average. So if a team has shooter troubles on Friday (like 2834) then gets their game on Saturday morning, their OPR would not be significantly improved. But human scouts can see and snag a second round pick that scores 60+ in a match.

On the other hand, at Buckeye, our first pick, 2252 was ranked 3rd in OPR but in the 20s seeding wise - and they were clearly one of the three best scorers at the event. There often isn't the type of correlation between rank and OPR as I'd like to see and OPR does a very good job of quickly highlighting which teams to watch carefully and look at their schedules to see if it was a particularly hard one.
I am very glad you did not use OPR/CCWM for your second pick at Buckeye. OPR/CCWM does not take the order of the match into consideration so you do not know if a team is improving or the robot is starting to have problems. I use trendlines in Excel to fit a straight line through the data points of all previous matches score based on match scouting. Then I look at the OPR numbers and trendline predictions and decide on what I think each team will likely score in the next match. Using this to look for teams in alliance selection is better than just using OPR/CCWM, and you will not miss a team that showed big improvement on Saturday like at Buckeye.
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