Quote:
Originally Posted by Craig Roys
To me, this shows the divisions to be closer overall than thought. There is a range of only 4.6 on average OPR - can you tell me that a robot with an OPR of 31 is significantly better than a robot with an OPR of 26.4? Same goes for the average Max OPR...range of only 3.7. The top 8 Max OPR is quite a bit more revealing...Newton does appear to be quite a bit lower than the other 3 divisions on the top end. The fact that the overall average in not significantly lower makes me think there might be a bit more balance.
Thanks for bringing up the data - this should be a lot of fun. I agree with the previous posts about not counting anyone out...the right alliance combination who gets hot at the right time can go far.
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A 20% range in average OPRs is pretty significant. I'd expect them to be much closer, even with random draw over 100 teams in each division.
The relative rankings aren't so useful for predicting Einstein results (because those are "one-off" competitions) but rather for comparing relative difficulty for different teams to achieving top qualifying positions and easier elimination routes. For example, 1986 appears to have an easier route to the Newton Division finals than the top teams in Archimedes.
The OPRs are a strong predictor to team success. Combining offensive statistics (which are more accurate than OPRs) with quantitative defense/skill ratings we developed, we were able to accurately predict 80+% of the qualifying match results, and 6 of 7 elimination round outcomes in two tournaments. The OPRs are slightly less accurate, but cannot be dismissed. In fact they are a stronger predictor than qualifying points. We came from the #6 Alliance Captain position to win our Regional, but we picked up the best available offensive robot (an FCS) to win.