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Unread 22-04-2013, 15:54
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by JesseK View Post
Anyone feel like doing a Monte Carlo, should the schedule change? Simply swapping 4-6 teams per simulation and recalculating scores may be enough for more accurate predictions overall. I've been able to do one simulation manually, and the point spreads are close enough with the 2 schedules that I have that we could potentially go 6-2 instead of 3-5 (given our expected increased 24-pt teleop disc scoring ... well, that's my expectation...).

It would be interesting for each team to do this on an internal basis so they can see how their efforts leading up to champs may potentially change the outcomes.
Are you suggesting generating a series of random match schedules and then doing the seeding predictions based on that? I get the feeling that this will end up collapsing to just the OPR rank list with enough runs.

Or, are you suggesting using some statistical variation on the OPR values of each team using the current schedule? If so, what variation coefficients would you use? I think this might be a very interesting simulation, but I'm not sure what the valid variation would be. I might need to dig further into the OPR calculations to find some sort of confidence interval.
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Last edited by MechEng83 : 22-04-2013 at 16:09.