Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeE
I think JesseK's expectation is that we would see substantial variation between different schedules, i.e. ranking is more a function of schedule than of OPR "performance".
So yes, while the average would approach OPR, we only play a single schedule which is likely to be helpful to some teams and disadvantage others.
Your other interpretation is more interesting. With some small tweaks the OPR calculation can also be used to generate mean/variance parameters for a maximum likelihood estimate of each team's performance. That's a better basis for real Monte-Carlo simulation, but we'd still need to simulate over a large number of potential schedules.
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When you only play 8 matches, schedule is king in determining placement. Our schedule has us placed 25 in the field, and we play against 1986, 341 and 1538 but never play with them. That said, we play with some top-notch teams too, and the our final record is up to how we play: 3 of the matches are within 10 points of OPR, which makes them too close to call.
It's going to be exciting!
Would simulating with a Monte-Carlo over a large number of schedules be nearly identical to relying on OPR for those same schedules?