Quote:
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Originally Posted by JesseK
Anyone feel like doing a Monte Carlo, should the schedule change? Simply swapping 4-6 teams per simulation and recalculating scores may be enough for more accurate predictions overall. I've been able to do one simulation manually, and the point spreads are close enough with the 2 schedules that I have that we could potentially go 6-2 instead of 3-5 (given our expected increased 24-pt teleop disc scoring ... well, that's my expectation...).
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OK, so I bit and generated 10 different Newton schedules using an evaluation version of the
scheduling software.
Match scores are based on Ed Law's Max OPR data for each team and Ether's world Auto/Climb/Teleop OPR data (linearly scaled to match Ed's Max OPR values).
This gives 10 sets of qualification rankings, one for each of the simulated schedules.
Here's a summary of each team's average, best, worst and "in top 8" rankings across those 10 schedules:
Code:
Team Rank Best Worst Top8?
25 50.2 35 74 0
68 24.7 2 43 1
79 35.1 18 63 0
88 70.2 36 96 0
93 57.5 25 81 0
116 34.8 15 62 0
122 90.4 83 100 0
128 30.2 8 51 1
131 35.8 12 71 0
141 26.8 11 55 0
155 61.0 24 91 0
175 36.8 1 77 1
180 14.4 1 33 5
190 75.0 54 92 0
191 55.3 19 93 0
195 18.8 2 47 3
217 37.9 2 69 1
225 12.3 2 30 5
296 82.0 68 98 0
303 39.3 7 69 1
341 36.3 3 100 2
353 67.9 30 91 0
492 68.0 38 95 0
503 23.0 8 60 1
537 55.6 28 71 0
604 80.7 22 96 0
771 77.5 39 97 0
829 56.1 33 85 0
1111 83.6 70 98 0
1208 42.6 5 69 1
1251 73.5 40 98 0
1305 36.9 16 80 0
1311 68.2 19 96 0
1410 30.9 1 66 1
1511 75.7 54 98 0
1515 63.7 35 94 0
1523 25.2 3 49 2
1538 8.2 2 24 6
1569 38.5 7 81 1
1640 40.5 21 74 0
1646 67.7 48 95 0
1671 56.9 16 95 0
1676 9.2 1 20 6
1718 17.7 2 38 2
1730 44.2 12 99 0
1739 74.3 35 99 0
1741 20.4 10 42 0
1781 35.1 3 64 1
1885 31.9 5 80 2
1899 33.2 9 67 0
1985 36.7 13 77 0
1986 9.8 1 56 7
2052 21.9 5 79 2
2054 9.8 1 26 5
2080 74.9 37 88 0
2194 48.9 27 71 0
2252 40.7 14 79 0
2283 81.2 49 97 0
2352 45.2 8 82 1
2386 64.2 46 93 0
2389 78.9 44 100 0
2439 41.0 22 70 0
2471 20.4 6 77 3
2612 20.7 1 44 3
2619 19.7 6 59 4
2655 90.0 61 100 0
2783 63.9 28 94 0
2789 62.2 27 94 0
2826 20.2 1 57 2
2851 35.0 2 78 1
2974 40.5 18 79 0
3130 49.7 26 78 0
3137 44.8 19 78 0
3171 83.1 55 100 0
3244 71.6 51 86 0
3280 67.4 29 96 0
3339 60.8 9 94 0
3476 22.5 4 45 3
3574 63.5 43 80 0
3756 47.9 18 81 0
3802 19.5 9 42 0
3880 44.5 8 99 1
3931 37.6 6 68 1
3997 32.0 4 60 2
4276 76.4 31 98 0
4451 51.1 13 93 0
4476 68.0 27 97 0
4487 57.6 23 85 0
4505 69.9 43 96 0
4519 44.1 4 66 1
4531 81.0 26 98 0
4539 61.0 7 90 1
4572 89.0 55 100 0
4586 75.3 47 97 0
4629 79.1 57 99 0
4652 85.8 72 99 0
4656 63.7 38 90 0
4666 87.3 57 99 0
4713 81.5 54 93 0
4828 76.8 36 100 0
(The average rank correlation between schedules is 0.59, but between schedules and max OPR the rank correlation is 0.74)
Picking the most extreme examples, team 341 would rank either 3rd or last, based purely on their randomly chosen alliance partners and opponents.
So I think we can conclude that there is a fairly high degree of scheduling luck, just as we expected.