Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Ross
You are correct that the schedule has huge impact on ranking. Running 200 match schedules last year showed a standard deviation of number of wins for an average team being around 3.5. Out of 9 matches, that is huge. |
I'm clearly far too lazy to run 200 simulations (thanks for the link!), but from just 10 simulations it seems the variation is even greater this year, partly due to just 8 matches in the Championship division qualifications.
Of course the basic underlying assumption (every team scores exactly "OPR" points each match) is fundamentally flawed, but that doesn't dilute the importance of schedule.