Quote:
Originally Posted by Bongle
The qualification ranking used in FRC is pretty poor. Even if you had some very good mathematical evaluation of robot performance (which in certain years, including this year, OPR is), it wouldn't correlate well because the standings are very often not a good evaluation of robot performance.
So really, there's a corollary to Lil Lavery's post:
-A bad performance indicator (OPR in his opinion) doesn't correlate well with another bad performance indicator (standard qual rankings with 8 matches played)
-Also, a good performance indicator (OPR in other's opinions) doesn't correlate well with a bad performance indicator.
Given the definition of OPR: "the average number of points a robot's presence adds to its Alliance's score", the real question about OPR is not whether it predicts final standings, but rather whether it accurately predicts an upcoming match score given the input of matches played before.
|
Based on my statistical analysis, the OPR this year was a better predictor than last year's. I was surprised, but teams improved more over last season than they did this season. I haven't yet run a full analysis on the predictive capability this year, but last year using average OPRs, I could predict qualifying match outcomes 75% of the time. I switched to max OPRs this year (and made some adjustments based on our own scouting data) and I think the prediction rate improved.
Standings can only be predicted by totaling the OPRs for all alliances in all matches and computing the win-loss record. Remember this is a team+teams sport, not just an individual or single sport, so an individual OPR won't carry many matches.