Quote:
Originally Posted by Citrus Dad
I haven't seen the SEs posted with the OPR parameters, but I can tell you that the SEs are likely to be VERY large for so few observations--only 8 per team at the Champs, at most 12 in any of the regionals.
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Small point: The Pinetree regional in Maine had
13 matches per team in qualifications; one of the reasons it was the Best Regional* of the 2013 season.
Bigger point: I've been playing around with maximum likelihood estimate models as an alternative (really an extension) to OPR, and these do provide both a mean and variance of team contribution. It's not quite ready to write up as a white paper but it's giving some interesting early results from Monte Carlo event simulations.
One more point: I'm a fan of the binary matrix approach to solving the regression described by Ryan since it's easy to add in additional match-by-match features such as average (or per team) score gradient during an event.
* from my very small sample of 4 events