[ThunderChief]

I used Max OPR to predict matches at the Championships. (I have been analyzing the statistics and plan to do a white paper.) I adjusted the Max OPR for each team by adding a factor depending on how well each team did at each regional starting with a couple bonus points if a team went to more than 1 regional. Then for each match, I figured the better teams would improve more than the average teams, so I increased the OPR of the best team on the alliance and decreased the OPR of the weakest team by percentages. Then I adjusted the sum of the OPRs up to equal the predicted, or later, actual average points per alliance.

If this predicted we were going to lose a match, then we had to change our alliance strategy from what was "normal". Maybe we would have one of our alliance partners play defense against the highest OPR opponent. Or maybe use a robot for counter-defense to allow our Full Court Shooter partner to shoot disks without an opponent defender in the way. The prediction was based on the past performance. If it predicted we would lose, then we had to do something different than the past.

Since we predicted we would not be ranked in the top 8, if the prediction was to easily win a match, we would do things to show scouts that we had flexibility like shooting from different locations, climbing a different side or picking up disks from the floor.

We changed a 3 win 5 loss match schedule strength prediction into a 5 and 3 result. And we almost won 2 matches that we lost by a very small margin.

We ended up being picked #3 by Team 303 (also picked Team 1640) and our #3 alliance won the Newton Division Championship.
So we did something right.
Also, my predictions were 100% accurate for the Saturday matches involving the top ranked teams so we knew in advance which teams to talk to that we wanted to pick us.