One of these days I'll post up my scouting database.
Basically how it works:
- Every point a team scores / defends is tallied.
- These are then turned into inputs
- After a set amount of matches, averages (Average Offensive Contribution/Average Swing Contribution... for those in VEX) for each period of play are created along with standard deviations and confidence intervals.
- Once this has started to be calculated both strength of schedule (SOS) and Strength of Partners (SOP) are calculated based on the teams you have went against and the teams you have played with.
- Based on each teams average score, an average alliance score is then computed, along with the max and min scores that fall within 2 deviations. (the more data points... matches... the more accurate this becomes)
Once this is calculated, if you an alliance has an 80% chance or better of winning, the program announces that alliance as the winner and outputs the most likely score.
The downfalls of this, it requires 100% accurate inputs (I started this program in 2011 and was able to accurately predict championship matches to within +/- 2 points). As the students have taken over data collection/entry, games have become more volatile, etc the ability to get extremely close to match scores has become much more difficult (needing more samples).
I'll see what I can do about polishing up the scouting database and posting something up for people to look through.