[EricH]

Originally Posted by Skinkworks

The 'scorched earth' strategy doesn't seem possible to work; mostly I think that because my team's strategy for alliance selection always starts with "If someone above you picks you, say YES!". It's the "high confidence in others" strategy, and I would think a decent number of teams use it, and scorched earth doesn't work if many people use this strategy.

See, that's the thing. For many teams, that is their strategy. For many others, who happen to tend to be slightly better (or maybe more to the point, tend to end up in the top 8 more often than not), they might be a little more picky. They may have teams that they won't ally with, for whatever reason, regardless of situation. (Possible reasons may run back for quite a few years, but that's beside the point.) They may have teams that they really like to ally with, again for reasons that may run back a decade or more.

These teams are strategists and will look at the long picture. These are the teams who were playing 6v0 in 2010, or always going to the coop bridge in 2012. These are the teams who will decline if they think it will help them win. Many of them will have a strategy something like: "If we're picked by X, Y, Z, accept without hesitation. If it's F or D, decline. If A or B picks us, your call--see if you can chat with 'em in the mass of representatives."

It's the latter teams that will either play a scorched earth intentionally from the picking side, or "assist the play" from the defensive side. Because they tend to seed higher, they tend to be in better position to use it, and thus it gets used.