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Unread 05-02-2003, 00:03
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FAKrogoth FAKrogoth is offline
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Thank you, [SuperDanman]. You are the first person who has taken more than a gut reaction to what I've said. You do make some good points, and I disagree with a couple, but that's natural.

I admit that the tragedy will definitely serve as a learning experience, and I lament the fact that it cost lives. However, it does not set the course of science back. Can you name one intelligent person who honestly did not see the dangers/imperfections of the Space Shuttle before the Colombia was lost? I can assure you that everyone at NASA knew the risks. To paraphrase your own words, "The tragedy comes from the fact that [the obvious fact of our imperfection has been shown]."

Could it have been prevented? Most likely.
Was it a bad thing? Definitely.
Was it earth-shattering? No.
Does it endanger the lives of the crew of the ISS? Only if nobody manages to scrape up a supply mission before August, and the Soyuz re-entry capsule ("lifeboat") fails. Barring emergencies, they're good through July. I admit that the investigations may take longer than that, but, if so, the Russians will probably find a little help getting supply craft together. If that falls through, the Soyuz are approximately as safe as the Shuttle. I think they'll manage.

As for the whole Shuttle, SSTO, reusable comments, there is plenty of talk of other things in the works. I'm not saying that they'll replace the Shuttle this year. Everyone knows that it will take significantly longer just to design, test, and build full-scale a new reusable craft. However, the Space Shuttle is actually significantly more expensive per flight (I'm not sure about per kg) than the disposable options employed today. This is not quite what we want, and there will be more interest in other methods. There is no reason not to continue using the Shuttles (pending investigation results) until they can be replaced. The system may just move a little faster now.

Finally, about my rashness of reply, you're absolutely right. If I'd been thinking clearly, I would have written "probability does not exist when [human lives] are involved." Thank you for calling it to my attention.
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