[Racer26]

I've already explained elsewhere why I think an elite team will be able to score about 150 pts by themselves, using their two alliance partners for defence.

In an average match:

I expect 90%+ of teams will be getting the 5 pt mobility bonus. 4.5 pts per team = 13.5 pts.
I expect 70% of teams will attempt high goal autons, and in wk 1, only about 40% of those attempts will be successful. = 15 * 0.7 * 0.4 = 4.2 pts per team, * 3 = 12.6 pts
I expect 30% of teams will attempt low goal autons, and in wk 1, only about 40% of those attempts will be successful. = 6 * 0.3 * 0.4 = 0.7 pts per team * 3 = 2.1 pts
HOT goals will be about 50% of the scored goals (which had 40% accuracy). 5 * 0.4 * 0.5 = 1 pt * 3 = 3pts.

At the end of auto, the average week 1 alliance will have 31.2 pts.

For the remainder of the match, the first 20s or so will be wasted clearing the field of the missed auto shots, probably 80% into the low goals. 3 balls * 60% of them missed = 1.8 balls. 80% of the time worth 1 point, 20% of the time worth 10 pts. (0.8 * 1)+(0.2 * 10) = 2.8 pts per ball * 1.8 balls = ~5 pts for this step.

Then a typical alliance will score maybe 3 cycles in the remaining 2 minutes of match.

Of those 3 cycles:

10% will be 3 assist cycles, 40% will be 2 assist cycles, 50% will be 1 assist cycles.
30% of cycles will have a truss toss.
2% of cycles will have a catch.
60% will eventually be scored in the low goal. 30% will eventually be scored high, and 10% will not score.

Assist Points (0.1 * 30)+(0.4 * 10)= 7 pts
Truss Points (0.3 * 10) = 3 pts
Catch Points (0.02 * 10) = 0.2 pts
Goal Points (0.6 * 1)+(0.3*10) = 3.6 pts
Cycle worth 13.8 pts * 90% of the time, 0 pts the remaining 10% = 12.42 pts /cycle * 3 cycles /match = 37.26 pts.

The average week 1 alliance will score 73.5 pts in a match.