Took Derrick's (in the sheet tab posted) idea that the miss costs you time, and worked out another look at it. The values are my guess as to what we will see up to MSC, then you get into some super-alliances, that will probably blow these times away.
Go ahead and edit if you want, or make comments, what you think about timings.
I added a 2nd col. for the Catch scenarios, the first one is the catch was made, the second is the catch was missed.
I kind of fought with the sheet, coming from excel the google sheet did not dynamically update some formulas as expected, but I think they are right now. Let me know if I something is missed.
https://drive.google.com/folderview?...&usp=sha ring