Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Ross
I did a quick linear regression using the aWAR data from 2008-2012 to predict aWAR in 2013. The R^2 was 0.50.
Code:
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value
Intrcpt 0.3038132 0.052869809 5.746440231 1.23044E-08
2008 -0.000281711 0.032586229 -0.008645104 0.993104123
2009 0.070683871 0.031397538 2.251255225 0.02459942
2010 0.058408153 0.034406836 1.697574055 0.089918829
2011 0.250272535 0.035138483 7.12246277 2.10545E-12
2012 0.427316251 0.033320186 12.82454585 8.15505E-35
This shows that data from 5 years ago is not statistically significant, and 3-4 years old is minimally significant.
|
If I'm interpreting your P-value results correctly, 2008 and 2010 aWARs were really bad predictors of 2013 success, while 2009 aWARs were reasonably good? From the games, that's pretty much the opposite of what I'd expect. Or am I misinterpreting your stat program's outputs?