[IKE]

I think it will be decent this year if penalties are removed. Of course, this would remove the "power" of a design that is good at drawing penalties (think taking a drive in basketball). After watching how some events were officiating, Robowranglers 2008 bot could have been the highest scoring bot this weekend...

Defense is also has an incredible amount of influence. For first timer events (most regionals and 1st round of districts ie weeks 1-3), defensive play usually does not develop well until rounds 3-5. This causes a shift in scoring ability which OPR does not handle well (it assumes even play throughout). This will be more accurate in later season events where Defensive play starts earlier.

The District/State Championships will likely see OPR growth in qualifying similar to 2010. In 2010, 3 bots that were 2s would get together and put up 8-9 pts. 2011 was the opposite, and thus 3 60 pt. bots would only get 135.

I say likely as the defense at District Champs and State champs will also likely increase. 2010 defense was very difficult and not terribly effective where as 2014 defense is much more obvious and effective. Teams at these events will also likely have the ability to muti-task. IE, Inbound, and then play strong defense. So it is really a question of "Can in the improved coordination among good teams outpace drivers defensive abilities"... We ahve several weeks to watch this develop.

My $0.02 is scoring OPR will not be as accurrate as 2008, 2010, or 2012 (adj.), or 2013 but likely on par with 2011 and better than 2009.

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Now calculating Penalty OPR will likely be a very valuable tool for 2nd round district events and Championship. HINT, if your teammate is average 1 50 pt. penalty a match, you might want to have a talk before the match starts....

I suspect some adjustment by GDC to the big penalty contributors which will likely put an * next to week 1 OPRs.