Quote:
Originally Posted by Nathan Streeter
I definitely agree that this year should generally feature surprising alliance selections because of how difficult good scouting is...
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It's not even so much the difficulty of scouting, I'd argue that as long as you have a person watching every robot (which many teams do every year) this game is no more easy or difficult to scout than previous years.
There are two big reasons why alliance selection is going to be wildly unpredictable this year:
1. Parity and the difficulty of single-handedly winning a qual match
2. Strategic diversity
The first one is somewhat dependent on the depth of field at a given event, but it's clear that there are going to be greater numbers of "capable" and "somewhat-capable" robots than ever before. The plateau of "amazing" robots at the top is the same as ever, but robots in the middle of the pack (that are just one step away from being at that plateau) are much more common. And that means it's harder to single-handedly win a qual match, and that means that rankings are going to be unpredictable.
In other words, the best robot won't be #1, and the second best robot won't be #2, etc. Sure, it's like this every year, but the emphasis placed on working together (much like 2012's coopertition points directly contributing to your QP) multiplies the normal randomizing effects.
And then the second one is interesting because we haven't had a game with this level of strategic depth in a while. Especially compared to last year, where the only actual strategic choices were centered around full-court shooters. This year, right off the bat, you have to decide whether you want to go for double or triple assists and whether or not you want to go for the high goal. And then, because so many robots are competitive this year, and because there are so many different designs with different nuances, you have lots of choices for how you build your alliance.
What you're going to see are lots of teams opting for different strategies, and it's going to result in some surprising early picks. In rare cases I expect to see high-goal scoring robots spurned in favor of a low-goal robot with a fancy catching device or a slick passing mechanism. Not that I personally would advocate for that strategy, but I imagine there will be an alliance or two that attempts it. And you never know, with the right combination of robots, that may just be the strategy that wins it. And that's what makes the alliance selection so exciting and so critical this year.