Thread: looking at OPR across events
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Unread 10-03-2014, 20:11
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Re: looking at OPR across events
Quote:
Originally Posted by David8696 View Post
In defense of OPR this year, I'd like to look at the data—that is, how accurately OPR has predicted teams' performances in the competitions we've seen thus far. Here are the top 10 teams as ranked by OPR, accompanied by their finishes in the competition they competed in.

1. 1114—Semifinalist at Greater Toronto East regional (lost in semifinals partly due to technical foul by alliance partner)
2. 2485—Finalist at San Diego regional (also lost finals partly due to tech foul)
3. 3683—Semifinalist at Greater Toronto East (alliance partner with 1114)
4. 33—Winner of Southfield district event
5. 987—Finalist at San Diego (alliance partner with 2485)
6. 624—Winner of Alamo regional
7. 16—Winner of Arkansas regional
8. 254—Winner of Central Valley regional
9. 3147—Finalist at Crossroads regional
10. 3393—Finalist at Auburn Mountain district

In fact, the top OPR team that didn't make at least finals in their respective regional/district event is 3494 at 12th, followed by 3476 in 13th (whose pickup broke during semifinals at San Diego). Overall, only seven of the top 30 teams failed to make the finals, and only two failed to make the semifinals of at least one event. As a robotics and statistics nerd, I think these numbers speak for themselves: OPR may not be a perfect metric, but it seems pretty dang accurate at predicting whether a team will finish well.

EDIT: 1114 and 3683 lost in the semifinals. Thanks to Kevin Sheridan for pointing that out.
Please watch the matches before judging that 1114 and 3683 lost due to a technical foul. One of the problems with OPR this year is it won't accurately predict how alliance partners mesh. I agree it is a good stat for getting a general idea of how teams are going to do but when it comes round to eliminations OPR is no longer very valid. I would be interested in how DPR is as a predictor this year and defense is being heavily played. I don't no much about DPR but I do know it uses your opponents score rather than your own.
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